Pro Football weekly

A look at NFL handicapping with the PFW editor lobbying to become Las Vegas bureau chief.

The "Kardashian Special"

Posted Jan. 31, 2010 @ 11:33 p.m.
If it's Super Bowl time, it's prop bet time, and Lucky's Race and Sports Book in Nevada has unveiled a wager it's calling the "Kardashian Special." Yes, you can imagine where this is going. The bet works this way: Lucky's has installed Saints RB Reggie Bush as a favorite over Lakers forward Lamar Odom in a most unique wager. The spread is 5½, and the units being measured are the ...

A Super Bowl trend of note

Posted Feb. 01, 2010 @ 4:33 p.m.
Fast fact: The last nine Super Bowl winners have covered the spread in the conference-title round. The last Super Bowl winner to fail to cover the spread in a conference-championship game? The 1999 Rams, who were all out to beat the Buccaneers as big favorites. (The Rams did, however, go on to win Super Bowl XXXIV.) I don't know if this is a particularly great angle, but I mention it because the Saints won ...

Seahawks slight favorites vs. Jaguars

Posted Oct. 09, 2009 @ 9:09 p.m.
With Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck expected to play Sunday vs. Jacksonville, Seattle has been posted as a one-point favorite at several Las Vegas sportsbooks. The game was widely off the board for much of the week. The Seahawks have not won or covered since Week One. Meanwhile, the Jaguars. who were an awful 4-12 ATS last season, have covered in three of four games this season. Hasselbeck missed Weeks Three and Four with a broken ...

Eagles-Raiders: The line we'll all be watching

Posted Oct. 13, 2009 @ 7:35 p.m.
The Eagles are 14-point favorites at Oakland on Sunday, and at first glance, that seems about right. The number couldn't be much lower, could it? Look, if you have watched the Raiders the last three weeks, much less bet on them (I have not, though I did pick them to cover in Weeks Four and Five in PFW's print edition), you know they are struggling to get anything going offensively. Any deficit the ...

Week Six line movement

Posted Oct. 15, 2009 @ 9:16 a.m.
Here's up-to-date lines for Week Six. The lines as of late Sunday night are bolded to give you a clear idea of where the line has headed early this week. Cincinnati -5 vs. Houston  / Cincinnati opened at -6.5                    Green Bay -13.5 vs. Detroit  / Green Bay opened at -13Jacksonville -9.5 vs. St. Louis  / Jacksonville opened at -10Minnesota -3 vs. Baltimore / Minnesota opened at -3   New Orleans -3 vs. N.Y ...

High winds in forecast for Patriots-Buccaneers

Posted Oct. 20, 2009 @ 8:11 p.m.
Another week, another weather game for the Patriots? According to Weather Underground's long-range forecast, winds of up to 30 mph can be expected Sunday in London, where New England and Tampa Bay will meet at Wembley Stadium. This is the third consecutive year in which Wembley has hosted an NFL regular-season game. The weather was not a factor last season, when the Saints beat the Chargers 37-32. However, it was an issue when the ...

Who doesn't love a pick 'em game?

Posted Oct. 24, 2009 @ 12:39 p.m.
Picking a straight-up winner and a pointspread winner are sometimes very different things, but in the case of Sunday's Bears-Bengals game, they are one and the same. Yes, Bears-Bengals is a pick 'em, where the handicapping simply comes down to whom will win the game. The Bengals are 3-3 against the spread this season, but you can see why the Bears are being backed so heavily: Cincy is 0-3 ATS as a favorite, and ...

Double-digit favorites mark Week Eight

Posted Oct. 28, 2009 @ 11:52 a.m.
With favorites posting a 9-3-1 against the spread mark last week, and with double-digit favorites covering at a 68.8 percent clip through six weeks, as many as six teams could be favored by 10 points or more in Week Eight. The big favorites are:  — San Diego (-16½) vs. Oakland — Chicago (-13) vs. Cleveland — Indianapolis (-12) vs. San Francisco — Arizona (-10) vs. Carolina — New Orleans (-10) vs. Atlanta Also, the Cowboys are predominantly 9½-point ...

About that Falcons-Saints ending...

Posted Nov. 03, 2009 @ 11:54 a.m.
If you stuck around to watch the end of last night's Falcons-Saints tilt, you were reminded why the pointspread adds another element of intrigue to games whether you have money riding on the outcome or not. The Saints, who were favored by anywhere from 10½-12 points by most accounts, led 35-24 with less than two minutes left and had the ball. All they had to do was run out the clock to secure ...

Week Nine line moves

Posted Nov. 04, 2009 @ 1:16 p.m.
Here's a look at how the Week Nine lines have moved since PFW went to press early Monday morning: Baltimore -3 vs. Cincinnati (43½) Same New England -10½ vs. Miami (47)  Same Atlanta -11½ vs. Washington (39½) → Atlanta now favored by 10; Over-Under up to 42Green Bay -10½ vs. Tampa Bay (44) → Green Bay now favored by 10Chicago -3 vs. Arizona (45) → Over-Under down to 44½   Indianapolis -9½ vs. Houston (48½) → Indy now favored ...

Underdog party

Posted Nov. 08, 2009 @ 10:17 p.m.
Underdogs ruled on Sunday afternoon, posting a 9-2 record against the spread. The only two favorites to cover? Seattle, which covered the number only because of an interception return for TD with less than two minutes left; and Atlanta, which won 31-17 but was pushed by Washington.

Week 10 line moves

Posted Nov. 12, 2009 @ 11:22 a.m.
Here's a look at how the Week 10 lines have moved since PFW went to press early Monday morning. Lines shown are current: Thursday night Chicago (+3) at San Francisco (43.5) → No change Sunday afternoon Detroit (+17) at Minnesota (47) →  Sunday line: MIN -15.5; Sunday total: 48.5Denver (-3.5) at Washington (37) → Sunday line: DEN -4.5; Sunday total: 35Atlanta (-1.5) at Carolina (43.5) → Sunday line: ATL -1; Sunday ...

Vikings biggest favorite of Week 10

Posted Nov. 15, 2009 @ 12:02 p.m.
The Vikings, who won and covered at Detroit in Week Two, are 17-point favorites in the rematch vs. the Lions. No team is favored by more points in Week 10. The Vikings are 2-0 against the spread as double-digit favorites this season, while the Lions are just 1-5 as underdogs as 10 points or more, including the 27-13 defeat at the hands of Minnesota in September. The Vikings were 10-point favorites in the first matchup ...

Dolphins-Panthers features clash of powerful trends

Posted Nov. 19, 2009 @ 7:16 p.m.
Two strong and conflicting handicapping trends are in play in tonight's Dolphins-Panthers game. Carolina is favored by three points with increased vig or three-and-a-half with the customary minus-110 vig depending upon the sports book.  On the one hand, favorites are 18-5-1 (78.3 percent) against the spread on Thursday games played in the second half of the season since 2006. On the other hand, underdogs have been very strong in November, covering at a ...

Steelers-Ravens line one to watch

Posted Nov. 23, 2009 @ 4:59 p.m.
The Steelers-Ravens game is widely off the board because of questions about QB Ben Roethlisberger's playing status, but one Las Vegas casino chain has set a line — and the early money appears to be coming in on Baltimore. According to VegasInsider.com's line movement of the Steelers-Ravens game, the Station Casinos in Nevada initially installed Baltimore as a 1½-point favorite vs. Pittsburgh, but the line has already moved to Ravens minus-2½ . If ...

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