Pro Football weekly

A look at NFL handicapping with the PFW editor lobbying to become Las Vegas bureau chief.

The Raiders' unbelievably comfortable cover

Posted Oct. 25, 2010 @ 2:59 p.m.
The Raiders' 59-14 victory at Denver Sunday was impressive by most any standard. And how easily they covered fits that bill, too. The Raiders were seven-point underdogs — and won by 45. Hence, they covered with 51 points to spare. I would imagine that is one of the biggest comfortable wins we've ever seen by an underdog. I mean, the Raiders were up 21-0 -- and thus clearing the spread by 27 — six minutes and two ...

Underdogs continue thriving

Posted Oct. 25, 2010 @ 2:49 p.m.
Underdogs were 8-5 against the spread on Sunday and are now covering at a 60.2 percent clip for the season entering Monday night. The eight underdogs who covered Sunday were Buffalo, Carolina, Washington, Miami, Cleveland, St. Louis, Oakland and New England. The Panthers, Redskins, Browns, Raiders and Patriots won on the money line. too. The favorites who covered were Atlanta, Kansas City, Tennessee, Seattle and Green Bay. Overall, underdogs are 59-39-4 on the season.  

Vikings slight favorites vs. Cowboys

Posted Oct. 12, 2010 @ 11:57 a.m.
In a matchup between teams trying to avoid 1-4 starts, the Vikings are slight favorites vs. Dallas in Week Six.  Per a scan of VegasInsider.com this morning, the host Vikings are generally favored by less than a field goal, with the prevailing line Minnesota minus-2 and the Over-Under 44½.  The Jets, who defeated the Vikings 29-20 on Monday night, are consensus three-point favorites at Denver on Sunday, according to a look at the lines ...

Jaguars priced as 'Super' long shot

Posted Oct. 08, 2010 @ 2:30 p.m.
Let's play "Name That Team." Your clues are as follows:  — The team is one game out of first place.  — The team is triple-digit odds to win the Super Bowl at two Nevada casino chains.  Two more clues:  — The team plays a winless club on the road this week.  — It just defended the defending conference champion in Week Four.  By now, you've probably figured it out: the Jaguars are our mystery team. And yes ...

And now, a few Bengals proposition bets...

Posted July 29, 2010 @ 9:03 p.m.
With WR Terrell Owens joining the Bengals, the Lucky's Race and Sports Book in Nevada has released four Owens- and/or Chad Ochocinco-related proposition bets. The Over-Under on Owens' TD catches, per Lucky's, is six, with the Over set at minus-145 (with a winning wager of $14.50 bringing back $10 for a total of $24.50) and the Under plus-115 (with a successful bet of $10 bringing back $11.50 for a ...

Reports of another Favre departure won't change Vikings' Super Bowl odds much -- yet

Posted Aug. 03, 2010 @ 4:15 p.m.
With Vikings QB Brett Favre reportedly signaling he will not play in 2010, Minnesota's Super Bowl odds could be adjusted slightly at Nevada sportsbooks, but skepticism about whether he is gone for good reigns. At the Tropicana Las Vegas, the Vikings' Super Bowl odds figure to rise from the 6- or 7-1 range to 10- or 12-1, said Chuck Esposito, the Tropicana's casino operations manager. But a rapid rise isn't going to ...

Win Over-Unders highest for Colts, Chargers at MGM

Posted Aug. 07, 2010 @ 12:23 p.m.
Below are the win Over-Unders for all 32 NFL teams as of Wednesday morning at MGM Resorts International. Eight teams, including the Vikings, had win Over-Unders of 10 or more, while six teams have totals of six or less. Three quick thoughts: — The 49ers' win total has been at 8½ since betting began, but the price on the Over has risen from the standard minus-110 to minus-155. That's a clear sign the 49ers are ...

QB play key in Texans-Cardinals

Posted Aug. 13, 2010 @ 7:19 p.m.
Below are the lines at the Harrah's casinos in Nevada for the preseason games to be played in the next four days, per VegasInsider.com. As you can see, no total exceeds 34½, and no team is favored by more than five points. With the outcomes of preseason games potentially decided by players who may not be on the roster in the regular season, the low lines and totals are understandable. And the low ...

Preseason lines breakdown for Saturday, Aug. 21

Posted Aug. 21, 2010 @ 10:28 a.m.
Here are the prevailing lines for Saturday's game, with a thought on each. Home team is in CAPS: WASHINGTON -3 vs. Baltimore (38½) Redskins were impressive in their opener. Ravens also did some nice things, with their pass defense holding up particularly well considering the unit's injury concerns. Pittsburgh -4 vs. N.Y. GIANTS (34) With Eli Manning and Jim Sorgi out (and Rhett Bomar in for extended playing time) for the Giants ...

Titans favored vs. Cardinals

Posted Aug. 23, 2010 @ 9:54 a.m.
In the final game of the second full week of preseason games, the Titans are four-point favorites Monday night vs. the Cardinals, and the prevailing Over-Under is 37. Both teams covered in their preseason openers, and both clubs has their games go Over the total. Handicappers looking beyond this game may primarily focus on the battle between Arizona's first-string offense (particularly Cardinals QBs Matt Leinart and Derek Anderson) and Tennessee's first-string defense. Leinart ...

Week Three preseason line discussion

Posted Aug. 27, 2010 @ 2:06 p.m.
Here's a look at the lines for this weekend's preseason games.  Home teams are in CAPS.  Friday, August 27 MIAMI -1.5 vs. Atlanta (39) Can Falcons' defense fare better after struggling vs. New England last week? N.Y. JETS -5.5 vs. Washington (34.5) Redskins will not have QB Donovan McNabb. Philadelphia -2.5 vs. KANSAS CITY (39) Handicappers trying to get a read on the Eagles will watch this one ...

Week Four preseason line discussion

Posted Aug. 31, 2010 @ 12:42 p.m.
On only two days this season will every NFL team be in action. Sixteen games will be played on Sunday, Jan. 2, when playoff seeding (and draft seeding, too) will likely be at stake. By then, we will have all forgotten the results on games played on Thursday, Sept. 2, when the final 16 preseason games of the season kick off. Few starters figure to play, and with rosters still to be pared to the ...

Vikings-Saints line discussion

Posted Sept. 09, 2010 @ 11:15 a.m.
The Saints are favored in their season opener vs. the Vikings on Thursday night, with the line sitting at anywhere from New Orleans minus-4½ to minus-6 depending upon where you're looking either in Las Vegas or online, according to VegasInsider.com.  I do not have an especially strong feeling about the game, though I would have to say that the Vikings look more and more attractive if the number continues to go up. With ...

The "coffin corner" prop

Posted Sept. 09, 2010 @ 6:25 p.m.
Online sportsbook thegreek.com has posted a most unique special-teams proposition bet for tonight's Vikings-Saints game. If you love good punting, you'll love this one. The prop reads as such: First Team to nail a coffin corner punt(.) Ball (after punt) must be placed from opponents 10-yard line to the goal line (If ball is placed inside 10 via Penalty = NA). Overtime counts towards wager. Results via NFL.Com. Wager is ...

Paid to play both sides in Vikings-Saints

Posted Sept. 10, 2010 @ 8:47 a.m.
With the Saints prevailing 14-9 vs. the Vikings Thursday night, bettors who bet New Orleans at minus-4½ or less and Minnesota at plus-5½ or more both ended up winning their bets.  This phenomenon is called "middling." Micah Roberts of VegasInsider.com does a nice job describing how sharp bettors took a shot on Vikings-Saints landing on a final margin of five points and profited nicely. Dave Tuley of ViewFromVegas.com also mentioned this interesting phenomenon ...

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