A look at NFL handicapping with the PFW editor lobbying to become Las Vegas bureau chief.
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Let's play "Name That Team." Your clues are as follows:
— The team is one game out of first place.
— The team is triple-digit odds to win the Super Bowl at two Nevada casino chains.
Two more clues:
— The team plays a winless club on the road this week.
— It just defended the defending conference champion in Week Four.
By now, you've probably figured it out: the Jaguars are our mystery team. And yes, they are a HUGE price on the board at MGM Resorts International: 300-1 as of Thursday. Only Buffalo (500-1) and Carolina (750-1) are longer shots.
I can't say I've ever envisioned the Jaguars winning the AFC South this year, let alone Super Bowl XLV, but if you can, surely you think they can beat Buffalo Sunday. And you probably have confidence in them beating Tennessee, a team they swept last year, the following week on Monday night. Then comes a road trip to the Chiefs, another team Jacksonville beat last year.
In other words, if the Jaguars play well in the next three weeks, they could be, say, 4-3 or even 5-2. And assuredly then they will no longer be 300-1 at MGM, or the 175-1 they are at Lucky's Race and Sports Book, or the 250-1 Las Vegas Sports Consultants, Inc., an odds- and line-making consulting service, has them at right now.
Should the Jaguars get on a winning streak, and should they have a shot at the playoffs, I'll have to check and see if anyone has taken up oddsmakers on the long prices on Jacksonville.