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Don't expect L.J. to have much fantasy value in Cincy

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Recent posts by Michael Blunda

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Posted Nov. 16, 2009 @ 4:14 p.m.
Updated Nov. 16, 2009 @ 4:42 p.m.
By Michael Blunda

According to multiple reports, it appears that RB Larry Johnson, who was released last week by the Chiefs, will soon become a member of the Bengals. With that, fantasy owners all over have one question: Should I pick him up?

In short, it doesn't like look it. Don't believe me? Here's what Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis had to say on Monday:

"That's what his role would be, it would be as a fourth running back and an opportunity as a backup player on this football team doing all the things backup players do, and that's work their tails off in the kicking game and showing looks (on the scout team) and so forth that way. And then he would be an insurance policy if something would happen down the line to one of our guys where he'd have a chance to be active. But I couldn't foresee him being active when he was initially here, if this is what happens. And that's what I've told him."

And there you have it. If it does become official and Johnson joins the Bengals, he would be a deep reserve behind Cedric Benson, Bernard Scott and Brian Leonard. Sure, he could work his way up the depth chart once he's had a chance to prove himself in practice, but there are only seven games remaining, so time isn't exactly on his side.

For L.J. to mount much value in the remainder of 2009, he likely would need multiple injuries to strike the Cincy backfield. Benson hurt his hip in Sunday's game at Pittsburgh, but he's not expected to miss any game action, meaning he should continue to be the team's workhorse. And even if he did sit out, the rookie Scott would get the first crack at the starting job, probably splitting time with the bigger Leonard. If one of those two also were to go down, then maybe Johnson would see playing time. But that's a lot of "ifs."

Also, don't forget how much of a non-factor L.J. was with the Chiefs this season, registering just 51.1 rushing yards per game, 2.7 yards per carry and zero TDs in seven contests as their featured back. His numbers probably would improve behind a better O-line in Cincinnati, but he's not all of a sudden going to turn into a Pro Bowler again. About to turn 30, he's lost a good chunk of the speed and explosiveness that once made him a star and is clearly on the downside of his career.

So if you're looking to add a RB this week, don't have Johnson among your top priorities. Benson owners might he wise to pick up Scott as insurance, but there are plenty of other backs available who'll provide more instant value than L.J. would.

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