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Trying to sort out why Bill Belichick went for it at the end of the game

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Updated Nov. 16, 2009 @ 1:52 a.m.
By Eric Edholm

Where to start …

In Bill Belichick's long career, it's hard to question much of what he has done. Most of the seemingly strange decisions he has made have turned out well in the end. Sunday night's decision only cost the Patriots a win. And in the big picture, it might not make a huge difference. But it calls to question what Belichick was thinking to start the drive.

To recap the fateful decision:

The Patriots had the ball at their own 23-yard line with 2:23 remaining and two timeouts remaining. They burned one of them right before their first offensive play, which to me was the biggest mistake of the game. If I was in the post-game press conference, it would have been the first question I asked of Tom Brady or Belichick: What did you see? Why the timeout there? I know you want to play safe and make sure you have the right people on the field. But that was a costly one.

On first down, they ran for no gain. Timeout, Indy. Now there's 2:18 left. Second down, an eight-yard pass to Wes Welker. Again, timeout Indy, now 2:11 left. If the Patriots knew they were going to go for it on fourth down, why don't they run it here? It forces Indy to use its final timeout. Instead they try to throw it to Welker, but it's incomplete. Timeout, New England with 2:08 left. This is when they decided to go for it, not prior. Belichick usually figures these strategies out beforehand, but this time he wanted to see how the third-down play went. It looked like he and Brady decided at that point they could go for the yard and a half to pretty much end the game. (Note: Even if they made it, the game would not have been over necessarily. The Colts had the two-minute warning left and a timeout. Granted, there would have been little time left, but this is an ancillary point now.)

"We thought we could get the (two yards)," Belichick said afterwards. "We had a play we liked."

The Patriots faced a rare Indy blitz, and Brady hit Kevin Faulk on what looked like a first-down completion. But a nice tackle by SS Melvin Bullitt knocked Faulk back, and the referees spotted the ball inside the first-down line. And because the Patriots had used all their timeouts, the play could not be challenged. Even though the clock ran under two minutes (when it becomes an automatic booth challenge), the play finished before the two-minute warning so Belichick had no ability to have the play reviewed.

I thought it was a first down. When you look at when Faulk locks the ball up, he's past the 30-yard line, or at least right at it, which would have been a first down. But knowing you have no chance to review a play also should weigh into whether you make the already risky-as-heck decision to go for it in the first place.

Naturally, others questioned the decision. No one more than Rodney Harrison, once Belichick's most loyal watchdog.

“You have to coach 60 minutes, and you have to trust and believe in your players, and you have to make the right decision,” Harrison said. “You cannot give Peyton Manning the opportunity on the 30-yard line to drive the ball and score a touchdown.

“I've been around Bill Belichick a long time, and he's made a lot of great coaching decisions, but this was the worst coaching decision I have ever seen Bill Belichick make.”

Tony Dungy also disliked the call given the situation.

“You have to punt the ball in that situation,” Dungy said. “As much as you respect Peyton Manning and his ability and as much as you may doubt your defense, you have got to play the percentages and punt the ball.”

Belichick's most interesting comment about the play in question, after saying they have worked on it all season for just these types of situations: "I don’t know how we didn’t make a yard on that play, but we didn’t."

Near as I can tell, Belichick went for in on fourth down for one or more of the following reasons:

  • He thought his defense was gassed and could not last another series against Peyton Manning.
  • He thought he could get the first down with the play they called.
  • He thought there was a chance for a defensive penalty.
  • He hates his punter. Detests him.

Even though I believe Faulk got the first down, or at least was far closer to the mark than he was given credit for, Belichick probably should have punted the ball. Chris Hanson had been kicking well in the game, with a 44-yard average. So assuming he makes that same caliber of kick, the Colts would have had to drive the ball about 76 yards in under two minutes (most punt plays take longer than eight seconds) with one timeout. Had they run the ball on third down, the Colts would not have had any, but we're way past that point.

Could Manning move the ball that far in that much time? Uh, yep. Would I have felt better about the way Belichick coaches had Manning done exactly that? Yeah, probably.

Maybe his players loved it. Maybe it showed just how much he trusted them to get those two yards. Or maybe, if you are a Patriots defender, maybe it stunned you. Maybe it showed what the coach really thinks of your ability to make a play in the clutch. The psychological effect is not known, and it might not be known for some time.

Belichick thinks differently than the rest of us. This is not meant to be sarcastic. He is wired differently. He believes his team can make fourth downs on his own 29-yard line with two minutes left when the rest of the non-Colts universe is screaming punt. And for that I give the guy some oddly misplaced credit.

Sometimes these seemingly odd calls work, like the intentional safety he took up in Denver in 2003. Brilliant, heady stuff. It's the kind of play that made us all call him genius. But like passing up a 48-yard field-goal attempt in the Super Bowl on fourth-and-13 a few years ago, this play also went against common convention and failed. Sometimes his genius backfires on him.

Get the first down, and we're talking about how the Patriots might be gearing up for another title run. But as they missed, we are left to question a legend. What we know for sure is that this game won't be forgotten for a long time, and it adds to the story of this terrific rivalry.

And don't you think, now more than ever, that we'll see these teams back here for yet another game against each other come January? It only seems fitting. Question is, when faced with another crucial conversion, what will Belichick do? Let the hype start now. The regular season, which had been fairly so-so in my book to this point, officially began Sunday night.

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STEVE PILATO
Throughout this rivalry, Belichick has had a history of not only going for it on 4th down against the Colts, but of extreme success. Somewhere in the myriad amount of coverage this matchup was getting last week, I saw or heard a stat line that the Patriots were something like 8-0f-12, or some similarly high percentage on 4th down against the Colts. We can only guess as to the reasons why the high number of attempts & the equally high success rate, but I have two theories. Either Belichick is positive of his team's ability to get the necessary yardage, which given the level of offensive talent is reasonable,or it could be a sign of what Belichick thinks of the Colts defense. I heard Tedy Bruschi say that the Pats had thought of the Colts as soft, & have heard Rodney Harrison say the same thing in the past. Either way, it almost certainly sets up a rematch at some point in January, as both teams appear to be locks for the playoffs. Which leads me to one final stat I saw during the week of hype for this game. The loser of the Pats-Colts game in the regular season has never ended up going to the Super Bowl. Past performance is just that, in the past, & doesn't mean it will hold true this time. But it is an interesting fact.

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