Posted Nov. 09, 2009 @ 7:12 p.m.
Updated Nov. 09, 2009 @ 8:04 p.m.
Coming into the season, probably the hottest name among QB sleepers was the Falcons' Matt Ryan. After flashing signs of stardom as a rookie, it looked like added experience and Atlanta's addition of TE Tony Gonzalez would be exactly what he needed to make a huge leap in Year Two. But at least from a fantasy standpoint, he's surprisingly remained just an average quarterback.
At the midway point of 2009, Ryan ranks 15th among QBs in fantasy points, meaning he hasn't been starting caliber in most leagues. And while it might not seem like he's played all that poorly, he's only averaging about a half-point more than a guy like Chiefs QB Matt Cassel, who certainly hasn't stood out thus far. The numbers he's on pace for — 3,568 yards and 26 TDs — definitely aren't bad, but when you factor in that he's on track to toss 20 INTs, it brings down his fantasy value a fair amount.
So, why exactly has Ryan struggled? While no reasons instantly jump out, it's clear that his downturn began in Week Six. After throwing seven TDs and two INTs in his first four games, he has tossed six TDs and eight picks in his last four outings. He's also averaged just 202 passing yards during that four-game stretch. Basically, it's been a tale of two halves for the Atlanta QB.
Not so ironically, it's been lately that RB Michael Turner has really stepped up his play for the Falcons, meaning more yardage is being eaten up on the ground than it was early in the year. That's led to Ryan needing to do less in the passing game than he did in the first month. But that's not the only thing that has kept Ryan's numbers down. Whether it's the scheme or him being less effective, Ryan is averaging only 6.9 yards per attempt and has 18 completions of 20-plus yards this season, both stats that indicate he is not making big plays through the air.
To put it simply, Matt Ryan is not who we thought he was. At least not yet. For now, he remains more of a game manager who might take an occasional shot downfield but, for the most part, will throw short, safe passes and rely on his running game to win. This is obviously not what fantasy owners want, especially when you add in how many INTs he's thrown. While he may develop into an elite fantasy player at some point, it's not going to happen this season. And with a boatload of tough pass defenses still left on the schedule, it looks like Ryan should spend more time on your bench than in your starting lineup for the remainder of '09.