It is wonderful to be an optimist, but I believe pro football handicappers to be a little pessimistic to be successful. Complete and utter locks are hard to come by. The lines are usually taut. Even bad teams have a few players (see Johnson, Calvin and Jackson, Steven) capable of making game-changing plays.
In short, you have to have a healthy respect of the various logical ways you could get beat in any given week.
With this in mind, here's our take on issues every team has to worry about in Week Two:
ATLANTA -6 vs. Carolina
If this game is close, it's because the Panthers vastly improve off a terrible Week One. QB Jake Delhomme (11 turnovers in his last two starts) can't take undue chances, and the Panthers' defense must be much better. The worry with the Falcons is whether the defense looks as good as it did in Week two.
Minnesota -10 vs. DETROIT
The Lions have little margin for error. If you're picking them (as I am), you're expecting QB Matt Stafford to cut down on his mistakes and for the defense to slow the Vikings' offense just enough. If neither happens, game over. Picking the Vikings to cover entails hoping they won't struggle in the first half like they did in Week One.
GREEN BAY -9 vs. Cincinnati
The Packers' pass protection was not a strength in Week One. Hard to ask Green Bay to cover a big number if QB Aaron Rodgers is under pressure all day. But you can say the same about those taking the Bengals; QB Carson Palmer was sacked three times in Week One and Cincy didn't score its first points until late in the fourth quarter.
JACKSONVILLE -3 vs. Arizona
I thought about taking the Jaguars in this game in my Week Two handicapping column , but it's hard to pick them to cover any sort of spread considering their plodding offense. On the other hand, the Cardinals have a reputation for struggling traveling east for a 1 p.m. Sunday start. I don't know what scares me more. Turn the page, I say.
KANSAS CITY -3 vs. Oakland
The Chiefs surrendered 501 yards last week. The Ravens, with a little better execution, would have won going away. The Raiders have the talent to win this game handily, and they have won three straight at Arrowhead Stadium, but taking an inconsistent team on the road off a short week and a draining loss is no bargain.
New England -3½ vs. N.Y. JETS
I really like the Patriots this week, but I know I'm taking a risk based off their play Monday night. The Patriots barely held off the Ravens in 2007 in part because Baltimore defensive coordinator Rex Ryan had a great gameplan against that legendary New England offense, and this Pats' offense isn't as formidable with Tom Brady only in his second start off a serious knee injury. On the other hand, aren't the Patriots still the better team, and is it not safe to say that they have done very, very well facing talkative opponents? And hasn't New England dominated this series of late?
PHILADELPHIA PK vs. New Orleans
Hard to make strong case for the Eagles with Kevin Kolb likely to start at quarterback. However, those enthusiatic about the Saints' chances must know Philly has a superior defense and a talented offense, too. This is no gimme.
TENNESSEE -6½ vs. Houston
The Titans had all sorts of problems against RB Steve Slaton last season, and their 19-point home win vs. Houston could have easily just been a five-point triumph if CB Cortland Finnegan doesn't intercept Matt Schaub on the 1-yard-line and return it 99 yards for a TD late in the fourth quarter. The Titans just might not be that much better than Houston. This assumes, of course, that the Texans aren't as bad as they were in Week One. See the problem?
WASHINGTON -10 vs. St. Louis
The Redskins lose if they make a lot of mistakes and the offense stalls (and both are possible). The Rams get blown out if they play like they did in the opener at Seattle (which was too much like they played at times in 2008 for anyone's comfort).
SAN FRANCISCO -1½ vs. Seattle
Give the Niners credit for winning at Arizona, but the offense's problems have to be corrected to beat Seattle. If I took Seattle, I would be worried that the rout of St. Louis was too easy and that the Seahawks could come out flat. The 49ers got the jump on the Cardinals last week and will try to do the same this week.
BUFFALO -5 vs. Tampa Bay
I took the Bucs in the column, but they are unlikely to have WR Antonio Bryant in the lineup, and if their secondary struggles like it did last week, it's going to be a long day. For Buffalo, the key will be getting over a tough loss, something it has done well in the Dick Jauron era. But would you be surprised if Bills were a little flat?
Pittsburgh -3 (+100) vs. CHICAGO
Can't like how the Steelers' running game looked in Week One. Do they have a back they can rely upon? Running against Chicago is no treat. But Bears have going to have to make fewer mistakes than they did in Week One to have a chance vs. Pittsburgh, and the Steelers are so good at forcing opponents into bad decisions.
DENVER -3 (-120) vs. Cleveland
The Browns could be in for a long, long day if the Broncos' offense improves off of Week One. And if you're picking Denver, that's probably a part of your logic -- that Denver can't be that bad offensively. We shall see. We do know Brady Quinn's best-ever game came against the Broncos last season, so the Browns have that going for them. Tough game to handicap given both teams' form.
SAN DIEGO -3 vs. Baltimore
The Chargers hve to worry about their ability to protect QB Philip Rivers and about their ability to run the ball with RB LaDainian Tominson is out. If Rivers is under duress all day, look out. The Ravens are popular pick after their offense exploded for 501 yards in Week One, but that came against Kansas City. Also, the Ravens made a few too many mistakes in the opener; if that isn't out of their system, they will pay against a better team on Sunday.
DALLAS -3 (+100) vs. N.Y. Giants
The Cowboys' top worry: their defense after Tampa Bay moved the ball far too easily. The Giants' top worry: Tony Romo has given them fits in the past.
Indianapolis -3 (-120) vs. MIAMI (42)
Would not be surprised if the Colts were favored by more than this on Monday night, but why couldn't they score more than 14 points vs. Jacksonville in Week One? That's something I pondered as I took another look at the game when handicapping for my ProFootballWeekly.com column Wednesday night. That said, I couldn't get too excited about the Dolphins off of seven points in a Week One loss at Atlanta. The Miami defense is solid, but does it get worn down in this game?