Not Registered?

A look at NFL handicapping with the PFW editor lobbying to become Las Vegas bureau chief.

Florida favored by almost nine(!) TDs...

About the Author

Recent posts by Mike Wilkening

Pre-free agency Super Bowl XLV odds

Posted March 05, 2010 @ 8:55 a.m.

A few final 'XLIV' thoughts

Posted Feb. 14, 2010 @ 12:13 p.m.

Colts' oft-criticized running game coming through

Posted Feb. 07, 2010 @ 8:57 p.m.

Saints enter half with rested defense

Posted Feb. 07, 2010 @ 7:47 p.m.

Positive signs for Saints on first scoring drive

Posted Feb. 07, 2010 @ 7:14 p.m.

Related Stories

A closer look at ... Carson Palmer

Posted Sept. 03, 2008 @ midnight

The Colts: Dependable favorites

Posted Aug. 29, 2008 @ midnight

The Jets and their high-scoring openers...

Posted Aug. 25, 2008 @ midnight

Updated Super Bowl XLIII odds

Posted Aug. 08, 2008 @ midnight

The Arizona Cardinals: A 'Super' longshot?

Posted Aug. 08, 2008 @ midnight

Preseason Over-Unders are on the low side...

Posted Aug. 06, 2008 @ midnight

The Boller Effect?

Posted Aug. 05, 2008 @ midnight
Posted Sept. 02, 2009 @ 8:17 p.m.
Updated Sept. 02, 2009 @ 11:01 p.m.
By Mike Wilkening

Updated Wednesday, Sept. 2 @ 10:55 p.m. ET

I don't write often about college football lines in this space, but the case of Saturday's Charleston Southern-Florida game caught my attention.

And oh, is there quite the line on that game.

Lucky's Race and Sports Book, which operates 12 sportsbooks in Nevada, including two in Las Vegas, has installed Florida as 62-point favorites, Dan Shapiro, the director of marketing for Brandywine Bookmaking LLC, the company's oddsmaking arm, told me Wednesday night. And get this: Florida opened as a 60-point favorite at Lucky's before the line moved to 62.

It's safe to say that this is one of the biggest pointspreads in college football history, and it could be the biggest, though that's unclear of this writing. I do know this: We have lines on college games going back to 1990 thanks to our library of Jim Feist's Football Workbooks, and anything above 50 points is very rare.

I have no insight into Charleston Southern, and everyone knows Florida is loaded, so a Gators' rout seemed assured. But for those betting the Gators, you'll need no ordinary rout to cash. 

A closer look at games with lines of 50 points or from 1990-2008  shows that backing teams as huge, huge favorites probably isn't a great idea. In the games I found, I saw only two instances in which a 50-point favorite or better covered, which I've bolded. (Note that this was just me scanning the pages for huge spreads; if I missed a couple, let me know in the comments.)

Take the case of Nebraska. They were favorites of 50 points or better once per season from 1994-97 - twice vs. Pacific (-50.5 in 1994, -52 in 1995), once vs. Missouri (-50, 1996) and Akron (-58, 1997, and the highest spread I could find in the Feist books). The Cornhuskers won all of those games comfortably, but they never covered. The same thing happened in 2000, when the Huskers, 50-point home favorites vs. San Jose State, won 49-13. 

In its glory days, Miami (Fla.) had several games with spreads of 50-plus points. The most fascinating came in 1993, when the Hurricanes were 56.5-point favorites against feeble Temple, which had covered in one of its last 19 games — and whose last three games, per the Feist workbooks, were off the board, extremely rare for a Division I-A school. As expected, the Hurricanes won, but only 42-7. The Hurricanes did succeed as 50-point favorites in 1990, blanking Long Beach State 55-0. However, 10 years later, Miami (-50) beat Troy by only a 38-7 margin.

And that only sounds absurd if you've never bet a favorite in your life.

Want more big-favorite trivia? Here you go:

— Florida State was a 50-point favorite against Cincinnati in 1990; the Seminoles scored 70, but the Bearcats managed 21 of their own, giving Florida State backers a special type of heartburn. The Seminoles would cap their season with a win vs. Penn State in the Blockbuster Bowl, which is apropos of nothing, but writing "Blockbuster Bowl" makes me nostalgic.

In 1996, Tennessee (-56) rolled to a 62-3 straight-up and spread triumph vs. UNLV.

-- Kansas State (-51.5) scored a big, but not quite big enough win for purposes of the spread, against North Texas in 2000, prevailing 55-10.

-- Florida (-55) rolled over Louisiana-Monroe 55-6.

-- Oklahoma (-53) bested Baylor 41-3 in 2003.

-- Also, in 2007, Hawaii was said to be a 59.5-point favorite vs. Northern Colorado per the Wizard of Odds (there was no line for the game in the Jim Feist 2009 Workbook). Final score: Hawaii 63, Northern Colorado 6. 

And score another one for a big underdog.

 

 

 

Comments (0)

Login!

Not Registered?

or Register!

No comments yet

Quick Links

Poll

Will Brady Quinn beat out Kyle Orton as Broncos' Week One starting QB?


Pro Football Weekly, LLC. | 302 Saunders Rd. Suite 100 Riverwoods, IL 60015 | (847) 940-1100
Copyrighted © 1998- by Pro Football Weekly, LLC. All rights reserved. Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.
Designated portions of this site © by STATS LLC. and/or Associated Press. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of STATS LLC and/or Associated Press is strictly prohibited.
Powered by Django