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A look at NFL handicapping with the PFW editor lobbying to become Las Vegas bureau chief.

How two Las Vegas casinos responded to the Favre trade

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Updated Oct. 06, 2010 @ 7:27 p.m.
By Mike Wilkening

You might have guessed the Jets' Super Bowl odds were going to drop after the acquisition of Brett Favre, and you would be correct.

The Jets, who were 20-1 to win Super Bowl XLIII earlier this week at the MGM Mirage family of casinos, are now 15-1. The Jets were 75-1 in January, but a strong offseason and their long-standing popularity with the betting public made them a popular longshot choice to win the title. "We already had quite a bit of liability on the Jets," MGM Mirage race and sports book director Jay Rood said Thursday.

Rood also adjusted the Over-Under on the Jets' wins from seven to eight. So did Chuck Esposito, the assistant vice president of race and sports at Caesars Palace, which is part of the Harrah's family of casinos. Esposito also dropped the Jets' Super Bowl odds from 50-1 to 30-1. 

Both casinos left the Packers' win total at eight.

"The question mark is (Aaron) Rodgers," Esposito said of the Packers. "With Favre, we would have moved that (total) to nine."

Esposito also adjusted the "vig," or the odds bettors had to lay to take the Over on the Packers. Before the trade, those who wanted who bet the Packers to win more than eight games had to lay minus-160, or bet $16 to win $10. Those odds have dropped to minus-140.

However, Rood took a different approach, raising the vig on the Over to minus-120 and suggesting the Packers could benefit from the end of the Favre saga.

Caesars, which dropped the Packers' Super Bowl odds to 10-1 when it appeared Favre would return, has moved that number to the 20- or 22-1 range, Esposito said. The Packers' Super Bowl odds remain 10-1 at the Mirage properties.


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