A look at NFL handicapping with the PFW editor lobbying to become Las Vegas bureau chief.
About the Author
Recent posts by Mike Wilkening
Related Stories
Monday was the 29th anniversary of one of the most famous moments in sports gambling history: "Black Sunday," or the unfortunate outcome of Super Bowl XIII for bookmakers. As this 2005 USA Today story explained:
"Bookmakers [in Las Vegas] still wince when they talk about so-called "Black Sunday," otherwise known as Super Bowl XIII between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Dallas Cowboys in 1979. The week before the game, Pittsburgh was installed as the four-point favorite. The line fluctuated between 3½ and 4½ before finally settling at four.
"Pittsburgh beat Dallas 35-31. And every sports book in Vegas took the hit."
In short, the movement of the pointspread set up a prime "middling" opportunity. Bettors could take Pittsburgh at 3½ and Dallas at 4½ and cash both tickets if the game fell on four. What's more, the bettors who made bets at Pittsburgh -4 and Dallas +4 got their money back.
Bettors could conceivably "middle" Super Bowl XLI if they were to have bet the Giants plus-14 on Sunday night and the Patriots minus-12 in the last couple of days and hope for the game to the Patriots to win by 13. But I doubt the sports books are too worried about that prospect.