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Houston might have gotten Schaubbed on this deal

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Posted March 22, 2007 @ midnight
Updated Oct. 06, 2010 @ 7:26 p.m.
By Eric Edholm

Ultimately, a deal for a QB is either good or bad -- no grey area. If the guy can play, almost any deal under the sun will be seen as worth it. For instance, we might have thought at the time that a first-round pick for Brett Favre was an obscene price for a second-rounder who got in the coach's doghouse in Atlanta his first year and threw a grand total of five passes, two of which were picked. But now, of course, the deal is viewed as one of the greatest "steals" of all time.

See how this works? We never choose sides on a QB trade; it's obvious to anyone, after the fact, if it's good for one side or the other.

So when I look at what Houston gave up to get Matt Schaub, I say to myself: He had better be good. They paid a hefty price. Think of it this way: In addition to moving down two spots in the draft from No. 8 to 10 (nothing to sneeze at), they also gave up second-rounders this year and next. If we are to consult the almighty draft value chart, we see the difference between 8 (1,400 points assigned to this pick) and 10 (1,300) is 100; then, this year's second-rounder, No. 39, is worth 510 points; assuming Houston is no better than 8-8 next season and that their second-rounder will be somewhere in the middle of the round (NFL teams drop the value of a pick by one round when it is traded a year in advance, so a 2008 second-rounder is worth an '07 third-rounder), we can assign a value of about 190, though it might end up being higher because of the Texans' perpetual suckiness.

That's a total of 800 points, or the same as the 21st pick in the draft. Of course, as a talent evaluator reminded me, we value QBs differently. For instance, take a look at some of the QBs that have gone in that mid-to-late first-round range -- Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, J.P. Losman, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman and Patrick Ramsey in the past five years -- and you can see what a mixed bag it is. Likewise, look at the bounty of non-QB talent that has been picked in the 17-27 range: for starters, Laurence Maroney, Marcus Spears, Luis Castillo, Will Smith, Vince Wilfork, Steven Jackson, Willis McGahee, Dallas Clark, Larry Johnson, and it goes on and on ...

The Falcons now have six of the first 117 picks in the draft, including that No. 8, which they can use on a defensive end such as Gaines Adams, a safety such as LaRon Landry or ... drum roll, please ... if they are really wanting to make a splash, trade those two second-rounders and No. 8 to Detroit for the No. 2 pick to get Calvin Johnson. Now, wouldn't you pay to see Michael Vick throwing to Johnson on turf? With Bobby Petrino calling plays? Uh-huh.

This all becomes null and void if Schaub does well. But they paid a fairly steep price to get him. Maybe they can get a third-rounder back for David Carr.

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