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The Way We Hear It — draft edition
Stewart's stock climbs despite toe surgery
BY Nolan Nawrocki
April 15, 2008
PFW personnel analyst Nolan Nawrocki will post "The Way We Hear It — draft edition" Tuesday through Thursday every week preceding the NFL draft. E-mail your draft questions to Nawrocki at ASKquestions@pfwmedia.com. He'll be answering selected questions on this Web site every Wednesday preceding the draft.
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Oregon RB Jonathan Stewart
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There is a perception being propelled by the media and the teams that are chomping at the bit to draft Oregon RB Jonathan Stewart that the toe injury on which he had surgery could push him into the second round.
The way we hear it, this perception could not be any further from what will actually happen on Draft Day. Stewart, who finished the season playing with the injury, showed he was capable of clocking in the mid-4.4s at 235 pounds and is expected to be at full health in time for training camp, according to three team sources who have consulted with their team doctors. Of the elite backs in this draft, he is the thickest, strongest and best capable of running between the tackles.
Not only is he strong and compact, he also receives high marks from team evaluators for his ability to catch and block. PFW polled 10 teams regarding how they viewed this year’s elite running backs, including five that needed backs and five that did not.
Of the teams with needs at the position, a perhaps surprisingly unanimous five said Stewart would become the best pro from this year’s draft.
“He will wear (defenses) down,” said one veteran evaluator not in position to land Stewart. “He does everything well. He has good vision. He runs with his feet underneath him. He is incredibly strong. He’s the closest (player) in this draft to Ronnie Brown — and he is twice the competitor. Ronnie was not nearly as tough.”
Three of the five with no need for a running back — and thus less likely to have invested a lot of time studying talent that they did not view to be in consideration — rated Darren McFadden the most highly. Two others with no need regarded Stewart to be the best.
Possible landing spots for a back in the first round include the Raiders, Jets, Patriots, Bengals, Broncos, Panthers, Bears, Cardinals, Texans, Cowboys, Steelers and 49ers. However, the Broncos and Texans are not likely to invest heavily in the position given their zone-blocking schemes.
The surprise contender for Stewart’s services, league evaluators surmise, is New England, which holds the seventh overall pick and has lacked a true bell cow in the backfield since Corey Dillon retired.
The secret to the Giants’ success in the Super Bowl that has not received nearly as much fanfare as their vaunted pass rush was their ability to pound the Patriots in the first quarter, opening the game by running 16 plays in the first 9:59 and wearing down the legs of an aging defense.
“What is the best way to protect an aging defense?” asked one longtime evaluator. “You keep the offense on the field as much as possible and score as many points as you can. It’s a lot easier for (Rodney) Harrison and (Mike) Vrabel and (Rosevelt) Colvin to drop into coverage 70 percent of the time. That’s what happens when they build big leads — there are a lot less collisions. At 30-whatever years old, you don’t want to be head-butting guards.
“No one gives the Giants coaches credit for their game plan — and I don’t know if it was (Tom) Coughlin or (Kevin) Gilbride — but they gassed the Patriots and beat them physically down the stretch. The Patriots had nothing left in the fourth quarter. Just look at how many points the Patriots gave up in the second quarter of their last two (postseason) losses (against the Giants [0] in the Super Bowl and Colts [3] in the 2006 AFC championship game.) It has to drive (Bill) Belichick crazy because it has nothing to do with scheme.”
Despite the problems his defense's aging legs have encountered in the second halves of games, Belichick has long preferred a veteran, experienced defense that could handle the complexities of his week-to-week game plans. If he remains old on defense, he could sorely use another bell cow to control the clock. Laurence Maroney has proven to be more of a space player than a between-the-tackles grinder, and Kevin Faulk is not getting any younger. It would not be a surprise if the Patriots address the RB position early.
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2008 Draft Preview
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If you would like to read more about the players who are about to enter the April 26-27 NFL draft, Pro Football Weekly has two publications that will fit the bill — the 2008 Draft Preview book and the 2008 Draft Guide.
The 200-page 2008 Draft Preview book, which sells for $19.95, contains detailed scouting reports on nearly 500 prospects with each player's height, weight, 40-time, positives and negatives. You'll also get our rankings of more than 900 draft prospects and a breakdown of each NFL team's needs, by position. Written by PFW personnel analyst Nolan Nawrocki and the editors of PFW, the Draft Preview book is widely recognized as the "bible of the draft." Books are now ready to be shipped.
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2008 Draft Guide
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Meanwhile, hot off the presses, the 2008 Draft Guide is a 152-page magazine that sells for $6.99, showcasing feature stories on Arkansas RB Darren McFadden and the secret to drafting success, a sleeper watch, a fantasy forecast and more. In addition, you'll find scouting reports on more than 350 players, draft previews for all 32 teams (including each club's top five areas of need and a "hot list" of prospects who fit the team's schemes) and rankings of the prospects by position.
The 2008 Draft Guide is available now at newsstands and bookstores throughout the country. Both of the above publications can be ordered now from the PFW store. You will receive a discount if you purchase both the 2008 Draft Preview book and the 2008 Draft Guide magazine from the PFW store with our Combo-Pack offer.
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