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How many times have we heard the mantra "Consistently successful NFL teams must be built through success in the NFL draft"? It's a premise most of us in pro football accept as the gospel truth, but what has anyone ever done to prove it, or can it be proven at all?
With those questions in mind, I brought the entire Pro Football Weekly editorial department together several months ago to map out a process for studying the NFL draft over the past five seasons and set about the process of trying to determine the impact it has had on the successes and failures of the league's 32 teams. What follows are our findings.
We began by creating a list, for each of the 32 NFL clubs, of every player that team had selected in the past five NFL drafts, including the round in which the player was drafted and what number pick he was in that particular draft. We also included on each team's list any undrafted free agent it signed during the past five years who made an opening-day roster in the season he was signed.
Then we moved on to the more important and difficult issues of what might be the most reasonable measures of successful drafting, evaluation and development of the talent each club acquired.
We started by accepting the premise that no draft class should be evaluated for at least two years, allowing the necessary time for young players to develop. We then determined we would tally each club’s results in the various categories we looked at from 2003 through ’05, from ’06 through ’07, and then cumulatively from ’03 through ’07.
Right off the bat, we found incontrovertible evidence of the value and importance of the NFL draft. Ten teams have had 43 or more total draft choices over the past five seasons, and six were in the playoffs last season. The Titans have had 50 picks, followed by the Packers (49), Buccaneers (46), Patriots and Jaguars (44), and Colts (43). Of the teams with 43-plus selections, only the Rams with 47 picks, 49ers (46), Raiders (44) and Eagles (43), who won eight games in 2007 and have been in the playoffs three of the past five seasons, were not in the playoffs this past year.
Thirteen teams had 38 or fewer total choices, and only the Steelers (38), Giants (37) and Redskins (24) made the playoffs. It is interesting to note that the Redskins actually had nine fewer picks than the 31st-ranked club, Arizona, but Washington actually ranks fifth on a percentage basis with 30.8 percent of its picks between 2003-05 becoming starters in ’07.
Among clubs with the most players drafted between 2003-05 who were still on their rosters, the Chargers (17) lead the way, and the Jaguars, Titans and Bengals are tied for second with 15 apiece. Fifteen clubs had 11 or more players drafted between 2003-05 still on their rosters, and the Cowboys (13), Seahawks (12), Patriots (11) and Giants (11) joined the Chargers, Titans and Jaguars in last season’s playoffs. The Bears (11) were in the Super Bowl in 2006, and the Eagles (11) have been a perennial playoff contender the past five seasons. Of the 11 clubs with nine or fewer players remaining from the 2003-05 drafts, only the Steelers (nine), Packers (eight) and the Redskins (five) were in the playoffs. (Note: For our purposes, we considered any player who was on the 53-man roster at the beginning of the ’07 season or added during the season as a result of an injury to still be on that team’s roster. See "Determining the data" at the bottom of our Three- and five-year draft history for a complete explanation.)
When you total the number of drafted players from 2003-07 on each club’s ’07 roster, the results are even more dramatic. The 15 clubs with 24 or more of their 2007 rostered players having been drafted between 2003-07 include nine of the 12 playoff teams in ’07 — the Jaguars (28), Chargers (28), Colts (26), Seahawks (26), Titans (26), Cowboys (25), Packers (25), Giants (24) and Buccaneers (24).
The Chargers (11) drafted more of their ’07 starters between 2003-05 than any club in the league, and the Patriots, Cowboys and Cardinals (nine each) tied for second. Of the 10 clubs that drafted seven or more of their ’07 starters between 2003-05, the Colts, Jaguars and Seahawks (seven each) were also in the playoffs, and the Eagles (eight) and Bears (seven) are also in this group.
Four teams drafted three or more Pro Bowlers between 2003-05 — the Patriots, Cowboys and Chargers (four apiece) and the Bears (three).
Eleven teams drafted 11 or more of their 2007 starters between 2003-07, and six of them — the Chargers (14), Packers (12), Colts (12), Jaguars (12), Patriots (11) and Seahawks (11) — were in the playoffs last season. Three more 2007 playoff clubs — the Cowboys, Giants and Titans — and the 10-6 Browns each drafted 10 of their starters between 2003-07.
Again, the Chargers (six), Cowboys (five), Patriots (four) and Bears (four) drafted the most Pro Bowlers in this five-year span.
The final proof of the connection between developing homegrown talent and winning is provided by a look at which clubs have done the best with undrafted free-agent rookies. The Colts lead the way with 16, and the Cowboys (15) are second. Of the nine clubs with nine or more undrafted rookie free agents to make the roster in the year they were signed, the Jaguars (11), Giants (11) and Chargers (nine) join the Colts and Cowboys in the playoffs.
There was only one area in which we could not find any correlation between wins and success in the draft, and that was in the area of success with high or first-day draft choices. In fact, only nine clubs (four playoff teams) selected more than 50 percent of their 2007 starters on the first day of the draft between 2003-05, while 17 teams (six playoff clubs) drafted less than 50 percent of their ’07 starters on the first day.
Forming conclusions on individual teams is tricky in many cases, in part because of the rampant parity throughout the NFL in recent seasons and the significant number of teams who have gone from worst to first and from first to worst over the past few seasons. But a few clubs really stick out.
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(Left to right) Chargers GM A.J. Smith,
Patriots V.P. Scott Pioli and Colts president Bill Polian
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Over the past two seasons, the Patriots (28-4 during the regular season), Chargers (25-7) and Colts (25-7) stand head and shoulders above the rest of the NFL, and all three are also right at the top when it comes to scouting, drafting and acquiring talent.
Since taking over the Chargers in 2003, general manager A.J. Smith’s 2003-05 drafts produced more players for his ’07 roster than any other team did from its drafts, as well as the most starters and the most Pro Bowlers (three-way tie). San Diego is tied for eighth in undrafted free agents on the roster with nine. And keep in mind those numbers don’t include RB Michael Turner, a backup to LaDainian Tomlinson who was one of the most sought-after players in free agency this year before signing a six-year, $34.5 million contract with Atlanta. Throw in his early-season trade for Chris Chambers, which was starting to return dividends late in the season and in the playoffs, and Smith may be playing at a level above the rest of the league.
As much focus as there is on the Patriots’ acumen in free agency and the wisdom of their trade for Wes Welker, the guts of this 16-0 team arrived via the draft. New England drafted its entire offensive and defensive lines, with the exception of ORG Stephen Neal, who was signed as an undrafted rookie free agent. The Pats are tied for second in the NFL in current starters drafted from 2003-05 and tied for first in Pro Bowlers drafted during that span. While there is little argument about the genius of Bill Belichick and ample opportunity to discuss it, it is a huge mistake to minimize the impact of V.P.-player personnel Scott Pioli and his staff.
The fact that the Colts lead the NFL in undrafted free agents discovered and developed might just be a double-edged sword. Players like Gary Brackett, Ryan Lilja, Josh Thomas, Ed Johnson and Aaron Moorehead are certainly solid players and valuable contributors. But the Colts also lead the league in free agents because of their commitment to developing talent in-house due, in large part, to the difficulty of managing their salary cap with all the stars they have drafted. More than just being tied for fourth in starters drafted over the past five seasons, Colts president Bill Polian has found stars up and down the draft and with his rookie free-agent finds.
The one club that has been close to the aforementioned big three in managing its draft over the past five seasons and joined them for the first time this season in the success ledger with 13 wins is Dallas. In the 2003-05 span, no club drafted more Pro Bowlers, only San Diego drafted more starters, and only the Colts found more undrafted rookie free agents over the past five years — a group that, of course, includes Tony Romo, who was signed in 2003, former head coach Bill Parcells’ first year at the helm.
Here, the debate probably begins. Jerry Jones and his son Stephen fancy themselves as football experts and may, in fact, be entitled to some of the credit here. But the fact is that the Cowboys’ personnel department had fallen on very hard times until the arrival of Parcells and Jeff Ireland, his vice president of college and pro scouting in Dallas.
Ireland is now Parcells’ general manager in Miami. For those of you who have been wondering if Miami owner Wayne Huizenga really knew what he was doing when he handed over the keys to the Dolphins to the Big Tuna, the move looks awfully promising, according to our research.
If you’re looking for any trends that may have popped out of our study, I wonder if it’s a coincidence that the Cowboys, Patriots and Chargers, who are among the best drafting clubs in almost every category, all play 3-4 defenses? Is it possible that since the 3-4 employs more situational players with more defined roles, it’s an easier scheme to draft for than a standard 4-3 package?
The two teams at the top of our study of clubs with the most players drafted between 2003-07 on the ’07 roster are the 49ers and Ravens, and they also stand tied for fifth and tied for seventh, respectively, in players on the ’07 roster who were drafted between 2003-05.
At the same time, the teams with the fewest players on their ’07 rosters drafted between 2003-05 were the Broncos (four), Redskins (five) and Rams, Falcons, Saints, Vikings and Browns (all tied with seven). I would assume from that data that the problem for the 5-11 49ers and the 5-11 Ravens in 2007 was a lot more likely to be poor coaching than poor talent evaluation, while it’s equally likely the problems in St. Louis, Atlanta and Denver may be more about the front offices than the coaches. And if you agree with me, it would also seem to prove that Joe Gibbs is still a lot closer to the Hall of Fame coach he is than what many have given him credit for recently.
Six teams have not drafted a Pro Bowler in the past five seasons — the Packers, Buccaneers, Panthers, Broncos, Raiders and Dolphins. Every one of those clubs but Oakland had head coaches during that five-year period with significant, if not complete, control over personnel. That approach would appear to be a really bad idea and suggests that the Dolphins and Falcons, in first seeking strong front-office guys before hiring head coaches, were moving in the right direction.
While I take no satisfaction in anointing the worst personnel department in the NFL over the past five seasons — at least as it relates to college scouting and talent evaluation — the Broncos are the winners/losers in a rout. Despite being tied for the seventh-most total draft choices (26) from 2003-05, the Broncos are last in players drafted over that span who were still on the roster (four), 31st in players drafted the past five years who were still on the roster (13), and last in starters drafted between 2003-05 (one) and over the past five seasons (five).
The Broncos are tied for 25th in undrafted rookie free agents to make a roster, but only the Saints, Bucs and 49ers have fewer. Mike Shanahan has earned his reputation as one of the best coaches in the NFL, but it would appear to have been well past the time for him to find someone else to oversee Denver’s personnel department. The Broncos fired longtime GM Ted Sundquist in March, but most observers believe Shanahan has had a much greater role in the team’s personnel decisions than Sundquist ever did.
Nolan Nawrocki, Dan Arkush, Eric Edholm, Trent Modglin, Mike Wilkening, Matt Sohn, Dan Parr and Matt Duffy contributed to this article.
Related Articles:
Three- and five-year draft history
By PFW staff, April 13, 2008
49ers' draft classes, 2003-07
Bears' draft classes, 2003-07
Bengals' draft classes, 2003-07
Bills' draft classes, 2003-07
Broncos' draft classes, 2003-07
Browns' draft classes, 2003-07
Buccaneers' draft classes, 2003-07
Cardinals' draft classes, 2003-07
Chargers' draft classes, 2003-07
Chiefs' draft classes, 2003-07
Colts' draft classes, 2003-07
Cowboys' draft classes, 2003-07
Dolphins' draft classes, 2003-07
Eagles' draft classes, 2003-07
Falcons' draft classes, 2003-07
Giants' draft classes, 2003-07
Jaguars' draft classes, 2003-07
Jets' draft classes, 2003-07
Lions' draft classes, 2003-07
Packers' draft classes, 2003-07
Panthers' draft classes, 2003-07
Patriots' draft classes, 2003-07
Raiders' draft classes, 2003-07
Rams' draft classes, 2003-07
Ravens' draft classes, 2003-07
Redskins' draft classes, 2003-07
Saints' draft classes, 2003-07
Seahawks' draft classes, 2003-07
Steelers' draft classes, 2003-07
Texans' draft classes, 2003-07
Titans' draft classes, 2003-07
Vikings' draft classes, 2003-07
Links to our online draft coverage
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