By Nolan Nawrocki
April 23, 2008

This is the final Q&A with PFW personnel analyst Nolan Nawrocki prior to the draft. Thanks for your questions.

I was just reading your mailbag, but haven't gotten a copy of the draft guide yet to read your thoughts on (Ohio State DE-OLB Vernon) Gholston. But my question is, why is it that when evaluating for the draft, quarterbacks and running backs tend to get overanalyzed and yet a lot of defensive players tend to continue to gain momentum? Vernon Gholston is an athletic freak, but he disappeared many times against all levels of talent. He just wasn't a dominant force the entire season! That seems to be the knock on Matt Ryan (made too many mistakes over the course of the season), but Gholston seems to continue to gain just because he is so athletic. What gives? I would rather have a Chris Long with a top-5 pick because I know he is going to show up each day and be a solid player at this level. I don't think Gholston has shown that he has that same work ethic! 

I'm an Eagles fan and I guess I just still have a bad taste in my mouth from one of the original workout warriors, (former Eagles DE Mike) Mamula. But it doesn't make sense that the more film people have, the more they pick guys apart, but the more athletic a LB is, the more excited everyone gets. I'm just curious. Thanks!

— Josh Yohannan

Josh,

It’s a fair question, but I’m not sure your statement holds true across the board. There’s no doubt that coaches get most excited about players oozing with speed, strength and athletic ability like Gholston. But I think they get just as excited about those qualities in quarterbacks, such as with San Diego’s Josh Johnson, and in running backs, such as the fastest player in the draft, East Carolina RB Chris Johnson. Each case is separate, and football-specific abilities must be evaluated more so than overall athletic ability. Strictly evaluating their current abilities as football players, Chris Long clearly is further developed than Gholston.

However, in my opinion, you have to evaluate what a player can do, what he is capable of doing and understand his background to arrive at the proper evaluation. In the case of Long, he had a Hall of Fame father whom he was able to watch tape with every week and learn what it really means to hustle, chase and pursue. He has been very well-trained on how to use his hands and shed blocks and understands the intricacies of the game like a seasoned pro. He had been playing organized football from the time he was very young.

Ohio State DE Vernon Gholston

One of the key elements of scouting that often goes overlooked is matching the personalities of players and coaches and understanding how much better a player could get with good coaching. The unfortunate reality is that players are often poorly coached at the pro level by coaches who are not interested in teaching and developing talent but are more interested in scheming. If Gholston finds the right situation, such as in New England, where there is a very heavy emphasis on teaching, he has the raw physical tools to be dominant. Chris Long lacks the same special tools, and although he could be a great player in the pros, he does not have the same physical skill set to be special like Gholston could be.

As for Gholston's work ethic, it is given very high marks by everyone associated with the Ohio State program. If you look at his low body fat and rare musculature, it's actually very evident that he likes to work, and work hard. I have no concerns about his work ethic based on all of my research. I worry most about how he will be coached, who will be coaching him and how his skills will be utilized. Used properly in the right defense, he will be a force.

First of all, congratulations on producing the best up-to-date information on pro football out there!

My question is, from your talks with scouts, do scouts value a specific trait more than other traits for a position? For example, in evaluating DBs, do scouts value acceleration more than pure straight-line speed? If so, what is the most important trait for each position?

— Peter Tong

Peter,

Great question! It is a year-round subject of debate for me and for many evaluators in the league who are always seeking to learn, regardless of how long they have been in the scouting profession. The beauty of evaluating is that it is an art, not a science, and everyone, from the most seasoned scout to a fan watching his first NFL game, views the game differently. NFL evaluators work a lifetime trying to figure out what are the most important traits to seek in a player, and sometimes it is only through failure, and understanding what a player was lacking, that teams realize where they missed on an evaluation and what truly is most important.

If you asked your question to all 32 teams, you could have 32 different answers, and in some cases, the No. 1 trait that a team could be seeking in a position could be dictated by the scheme that a coach runs. For example, a cornerback who is sought to play a lot of zone coverage needs to have instincts first and foremost so that he can see what is happening around him, pass off receivers and react quickly to the thrown ball. A cornerback asked to play a lot of man coverage needs to have great recovery quickness so that he could regain position when a receiver makes a great move to uncover.

To answer your questions, straight-line speed and 40-times are very overrated. Seldom do players have to run 40 yards in a straight line on a football field. I am much more interested in a player’s quickness, change of direction and overall football playing instincts/game speed than pure timed speed.

Across the board, the three traits that I think are most important for all football players to have are toughness, competitiveness and intelligence. With those three traits, an average athlete could be an outstanding player.

At quarterback, I’m torn between toughness and accuracy, but I would say accuracy may have a slight edge. Joe Montana had no rifle but he was extremely accurate, regardless of what any completion percentage might say. Simple completion percentages can be very misleading, given the high-percentage passing games that are heavily run today, and should not be viewed as a pure indicator of accuracy.

When I think of great backs, I first think of Walter Payton, and the trait that jumps out at me is competitiveness. What makes Adrian Peterson so special is his competitiveness. I think it is critical at the position for the type of pounding that backs must endure and distribute. Balance is also very underrated.

Fullbacks need to be tough first and foremost, in my mind, although with the evolution of the position, versatility has become very important, as it is for the TE position. Hands are critical at the receiver position, but body control and overall quickness to me are also very, very important.

I prefer offensive linemen who are nasty and love to finish blocks and would say that pride overall has a lot to do with how successful a linemen is. To be a great offensive lineman, you don’t need to be a great athlete. You do, however, need to have the right mental makeup. Intelligence and understanding angles, to me, are very important at the OT position. Core functional base strength is extremely important at guard, as is quickness. To me, the best centers to have played the game — many of whom have donned a Steelers uniform, such as Mike Webster and Dermontti Dawson — have been quick.

The definition of what you ask a defensive linemen to do could determine the most critical trait. Seeing sheer explosiveness and twitch off the edge usually excites me the most on tape. Base strength to anchor and leverage the run is underrated. Hand use and the ability to grab cloth, disengage and control blockers is extremely important for an interior defensive lineman.

Instincts to me are far and away the most important trait at linebacker. Great linebackers, like Mike Singletary and Derrick Brooks, diagnose plays before the snap and often close gaps before backs ever hit them.

Because all cornerbacks get beat and need to have a short memory to line up the next play and perform, I think confidence is extremely important at cornerback. Some of the game’s best cornerbacks, like Ronde Barber, have not been the fastest, but they have had great ball skills and get their hands on a lot of balls. Safeties have to be smart and be able to line up a defense. The best in the league, like Ed Reed, understand the game like a coach.

Overall consistency in a kicker’s approach is extremely important, just like it is for a golfer. The ability to control the ball — to be able to hit it with precision and accuracy — is critical for a punter. I’m torn between vision and gear change as it relates to return specialists. The rarest talent, such as Devin Hester, sees the field clearly and can set up moves by shifting fast into different gears.

Do you think Sam Baker will be available at pick No. 29 for the 49ers? How do you think he would do at right tackle if Jonas Jennings is injured and misses games? I have read the coaching staff is committed to Joe Staley playing left tackle this year. All loyal 49er fans were sickened by the dismal play of the offensive line last year. Before the season began, I would have said the two strongest parts of the team were the offensive line and the running backs. But the offensive line was terrible (55 sacks surrendered). We need an offensive tackle and offensive guard and leave the French pastry (wide receiver) for some other time.

— Matthew Delaune

Matt,

There is a chance Sam Baker could be there. He really improved his strength after the season, although he may have compromised some speed in doing so. There is a chance he falls to the Niners, but with the run I expect on offensive tackles, I’d be surprised to see him get out of the first round. I’m not sure Baker’s finesse style meshes well with the 49ers’ preferred style of offensive linemen, but Mike Martz’s offense has always required two left tackles because of the frequency of five- and seven-step drops, so Baker could be a welcome addition.

I could not agree more with your assessment of the offensive line. They could find a good receiver in the middle rounds. They need to get better up front first and foremost and give Alex Smith a chance to stay healthy.

Many draftniks have CB Brandon Flowers going to San Diego at No. 27 overall to replace nickel back Drayton Florence.

But the Chargers used a fourth-round pick in the 2007 supplemental draft to select CB Paul Oliver, whom GM AJ Smith is very high on.

Also, Flowers runs a slow 4.6 40 and would project to safety, not cornerback, and the Bolts re-upped S Clinton Hart to a five-year deal.

Wouldn't San Diego be ecstatic to pluck RB Jonathan Stewart in Round One and then deal next year's first-round pick to get a top right tackle or nose tackle in Round Two?

Also, any word on the trade value for Eric Parker?

— Gurman Bal, San Ramon, Calif.

Gurman,

With the way LaDainian Tomlinson finished the season hurt, I think the Chargers are well aware that teams need at least two good running backs to be successful. But if you think Jonathan Stewart is going to last until the Chargers’ pick, you are dreaming. He’s a lock top-15 pick, toe injury or not, and I think he’ll be the best back in this draft regardless of where he gets drafted or by which team.

With the Chargers not having second-, third- or fourth-round picks after having moved up for Eric Weddle a year ago and having traded for Chris Chambers, I think they will seek a move down to acquire more value rather than a move up. Their roster is so deep from some of the best drafting in the league, if not the best, that I think they would be better-served moving down than moving up.

The value of Eric Parker in the trade market is minimal.

First off, I'm a long-time draft junkie and want to thank you for all your hard work. I love the annual Draft Preview and am never without it. My question is regarding Jonathan Stewart. I know he had surgery just a few weeks ago, but I am puzzled about why no one seems to be talking about him much. I think he shows rare balance, good power and although I've heard criticisms of his supposed lack of a second gear, I recall him breaking at least four long runs when I watched him last fall and no one caught him from behind. I personally think he is the best all-around back in the draft. Is there something that I am missing regarding him?

— Steve Pilato, Green Bay, Wis.

No, you're not missing anything at all. Everyone is entitled to his opinion, and there’s no guarantee to say you or I could not be wrong, but I could not agree with you more. The only thing I disagree with is your statement about his toe surgery, which happened more than "a few weeks ago," as he should be ready for training camp.  

I would like to see the Jets move down a little and draft in the first, RB (Jonathan) Stewart, and then in the second get WR Limas Sweed or Jordy Nelson, a cornerback in the third and with their two fourth-rounders, (Hampton) DE (Kendall) Langford and (San Diego) QB (Josh) Johnson.

Is this reasonable ... possible?

I expect them to trade D. Robertson to Denver for two late picks.

— Steve

Steve,

Seems like the interest in Stewart is growing among the fan community. I don’t think the Jets will be able to move down far and still be able to get Stewart, but I agree that he would be an outstanding fit in a power offense and would be better-suited for what they are trying to do than Darren McFadden, whom they could take at No. 6. I think Limas Sweed would be a steal in the second round and expect Jordy Nelson to be a very good pro. Hampton DE Kendall Langford may be available in the fourth, but his value could be too great for 3-4 fronts to make it that far into the draft. I’m not sure if Josh Johnson would still be there in the fourth round, given his great upside. For the Jets to come away with a combination of the players you mentioned and draft very safe selections in the first two rounds just might put them in contention with the Patriots next season. It would be an exceptional draft, if they could be so fortunate.

I know that most mock drafts have the Broncos taking an offensive lineman in the first round, but their history indicates otherwise. What are the chances of either the Lions or the Cardinals moving up to get (Illinois RB Rashard) Mendenhall, and what do you think the Broncos would accept? A No. 1 and a No. 3?

— Dennis Chandler

I think the Broncos are trying to advance their interest in Mendenhall in the first round with the hope of potentially making a trade with a notoriously poor decision maker like Lions president Matt Millen, but I would be somewhat surprised if either the Lions or Cardinals moved up. The Broncos are seeking more power in their offensive line and should be looking for a left tackle who will allow Jay Cutler to do more drop-back passing than all the rollouts and bootlegs they have been forced to do in the past with an average offensive line. I could see the Broncos staying put and taking the best offensive lineman. For the Lions or Cardinals to move up three or four spots may only require an additional third-rounder or a conditional third-rounder next year, in addition to swapping first-round picks.

I was just looking at your picks, and your comment on Jerry Jones took me back a little. How can you make a statement like Jerry Jones does not value character and is enamored with speed? He made mistakes on a couple of players; now all of a sudden he does not value character? What about his decision not to draft Randy Moss, or the Cowboys' last six first-round picks (Williams, Newman, Jones, Spencer, Carpenter, Ware and Spears). None of these player have had problems. As a matter of fact, look at the Cowboys' starting lineup other than T.O., and where are the character flaws? He has made some mistakes (Goodrich, Carter, Underwood, and Bryant) but overall even some of his projects have turned out well (Haley, Tank Johnson). 

I just think your choice of words are wrong, or maybe you didn't do your homework, and just threw your mock draft together because you had a deadline to meet. 

Speed? You're talking about Al Davis (you’re the first person that I have heard make that assumption — on TV or in a paper). It sounds to me like you heard that term being used and just threw it out there, hoping some uninformed reader would nod in agreement. Who in that group is the speedster other than Newman?

Please review draft histories before making statements. There are a bunch of readers who are informed, and we can tell when a journalist has not done his homework. Thank you.

— Derek Thomas

Derek,

Make no mistake about it; I chose my words carefully. Anyone who is flirting with Pacman Jones, especially at this point in his career, to me does not understand and appreciate character. Contrary to what you say, Jones’ draft philosophy, in my opinion, is very similar to that of his good friend, Al Davis. I’ve heard many of the stories over the years of things that have taken place inside the Cowboys’ draft room, and how much Bill Parcells had to fight to keep Jones in line. Ultimately, I think Jones helped drive Parcells away with Jones' decision to acquire Terrell Owens. Many of the mistakes you mention occurred when Jones was the primary decision maker. Most of the hits you mentioned took place when Parcells was in the building. Now, Parcells may not be the chef he is made out to be. If you really study his drafts, he has his share of doozies like anyone else, but I would take issue with your perception of the Cowboys’ owner. He is a flash guy who has always been enamored with razzle and dazzle. 

Lastly, just because a player has not been arrested does not necessarily mean he has good character. I would argue that Carpenter and Spears have largely struggled because of flaws in character/makeup that were easy to identify. But Parcells has always been blinded to the character flaws of players who share his same agent (Jimmy Sexton).

Why don't you think Joe Flacco is a better prospect at the QB position than Brian Brohm? Flacco led the Blue Hens to the FCS championship game. He has the size (6-6) to see over the line of scrimmage and has a better throwing arm than Brohm. Brohm played in a system where he could put up the numbers and he did not carry his team for the 2007 season (Louisville went 6-6). Brohm is better-suited going in the second round to teams like Falcons, Chiefs, Bills, Bears, Lions or Vikings (assuming Ryan goes to the Ravens and Flacco is selected in the first round). Thank you for the opportunity to ask you a draft-related question.

— Clayton, Elizabeth, N.J.

Clayton,

Put me in the books as one of the non-believers in Joe Flacco. I see a backup quarterback who could not beat out Tyler Palko at Pittsburgh. I see a passer who panics under pressure and has to wait for his receivers to come open to throw. Arm strength is not everything, and while I am not enamored with Brian Brohm, I think he will be a better pro than Flacco. Any team who considers Flacco in the first round, I think, would be mightily reaching and extremely disappointed in a few years. Yes, he has the best arm in the draft. His toughness and accuracy, however, do not impress me. If he stays in the same offense for six years, eventually I think he could come around and be a solid player, a la Todd Collins. But I will firmly go on the record saying he will be a disappointment if he somehow lands in Round One. What a reach that would be, at least in my opinion. But I hope he has a great career for whoever drafts him. He did take big strides as a senior.

2008 Draft Preview

If you would like to read more about the players who are about to enter the April 26-27 NFL draft, Pro Football Weekly has two publications that will fit the bill — the 2008 Draft Preview book and the 2008 Draft Guide.

The 200-page 2008 Draft Preview book, which sells for $19.95, contains detailed scouting reports on nearly 500 prospects with each player's height, weight, 40-time, positives and negatives. You'll also get our rankings of more than 900 draft prospects and a breakdown of each NFL team's needs, by position. Written by PFW personnel analyst Nolan Nawrocki and the editors of PFW, the Draft Preview book is widely recognized as the "bible of the draft." Books are now ready to be shipped. 

2008 Draft Guide

Meanwhile, hot off the presses, the 2008 Draft Guide is a 152-page magazine that sells for $6.99, showcasing feature stories on Arkansas RB Darren McFadden and the secret to drafting success, a sleeper watch, a fantasy forecast and more. In addition, you'll find scouting reports on more than 350 players, draft previews for all 32 teams (including each club's top five areas of need and a "hot list" of prospects who fit the team's schemes) and rankings of the prospects by position. 

The 2008 Draft Guide is available now at newsstands and bookstores throughout the country. Both of the above publications can be ordered now from the PFW store. You will receive a discount if you purchase both the 2008 Draft Preview book and the 2008 Draft Guide magazine from the PFW store with our Combo-Pack offer.

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