By Nolan Nawrocki
April 16, 2008

E-mail your draft questions to Nolan Nawrocki at ASKquestions@pfwmedia.com. He'll be answering selected questions on this Web site next Wednesday for the final time prior to the draft.

Virginia DE Chris Long

— Joe Finley

Joe,

Great questions. Bill Parcells and Bill Belichick love pedigree. Just look at some of their selections over the years, from Bobby Carpenter to Marion Barber to Dan Klecko, all of whom have fathers who played in the NFL. Both coaches are football historians and hold a deep respect for those who have come before them. They also have ties, as does Eric Mangini, to Al Groh and the Virginia football staff. Even more than most teams, they could feel very safe drafting a player with Hall of Fame bloodlines who played for a former colleague.

Honestly, I do not know that Chris Long will wind up slipping out of the top five. When that mock draft was written at the beginning of the month, that was the way I was hearing it would fall from extensive conversations with team sources. As of today, Chris Long actually seems to be gaining a little momentum.

For anyone to project him as the best player in this draft I think would be surprising —I certainly have not heard a single evaluator ever reference him as that. He is a well-trained, highly productive football player. However, as you singled out with his 40-times that we reported, which were averaged from the hand-held results at the Combine — not the best electronic time, which was initially released by the NFL to encourage players to perform at the workout — the reality is that I do NOT think Long is an elite athlete. And if you watch the tape of some of the better competition he has faced, such as Boston College and Pittsburgh and even Texas Tech, I think you’ll see that he struggled to make his presence felt as a pass rusher. As you mentioned, his best fit in a 4-3 front would be as a strong-side, base end — which still holds a lot of value, but arguably not as much as a premium pass rusher who consistently pressures the quarterback.

Bottom line: Chris Long does not show the burst to get to the quarterback off the edge on third downs, he is light and narrow-framed to play inside and he has little experience from a rush LB role. As a result, any 3-4 team that drafts him in the top 10 to be a 3-4 outside ’backer would be making a projection, which is usually a very scary proposition to make at any position in the draft’s top 10, given the investment that the selections require.

Of Dallas' two first-round picks, if they wanted to trade up in the first round for (Darren) McFadden without adding other picks, what would be a fair trade with the Raiders’ (fourth overall) pick (in exchange) for the Cowboys’ two picks plus more? I was thinking the two first-rounders this year and a second next year.

— Keith Sarson

Keith,

With the strong desire of teams holding top-10 picks to move down, which has been created by the skewed rookie wage scale, trade demands have lessened from what they once were. The Cowboys might be able to move up to the Raiders’ slot if they were to exchange both of their first-round picks and a fourth-rounder. What had initially been discussed, at least in league circles, was that the Cowboys would give up a first-rounder this year, a first-rounder next year and Marion Barber in exchange for the fourth overall selection, which should be able to land McFadden. Discussions have also been made about the Cowboys sending Bobby Carpenter and Marcus Spears — two disappointing Parcells-endorsed picks now on the trading block, the Cowboys’ first two picks and potentially a pick next year in exchange for Raiders CB Fabian Washington and the fourth overall pick. However, at this point, I would be surprised to see a deal struck between the two teams.

Many think that, because of today's rules, it puts a premium on cover corners. My thinking is just the opposite. Since the current rules (which I feel are a joke) on downfield contact don't even allow for the position to be played effectively, why invest heavily on coverage skills? My philosophy is that, I would never even take a corner higher than the third, and would rather invest my quality picks on "D" on the surrounding positions (front seven/safeties), and would pick my corners more for their open-field/run-supporting tackling skills vs. coverage skills. That being said, and factoring current roster/team needs/strength of draft, I don't see the Dolphins taking a cornerback in the first 100 picks. Your thoughts?

— William Gillespie

William,

Clearly football games are won in the trenches. I’m a staunch proponent of smashmouth, power football and a big believer that the most physical football team usually dominates. Most teams that control the line of scrimmage generally win a lot of football games. Defensively, if you look at how the NFL’s final four teams — the Patriots, Giants, Chargers and Packers — were built, I think you’ll see the importance of drafting pass rushers. Roster depth would dictate whether I would consider drafting a cornerback earlier than the third round, but if given the choice between a good pass rusher and a great cornerback, I would tend to go with the pass rusher who can make the cornerback great. To me, the Dolphins have to get better up front on both sides of the ball first and foremost.

How do some of the small-school developmental QBs (Josh Johnson, Ryan O’Hara) stack up to some of the bigger-school, late-round prospects (Dennis Dixon, Colt Brennan), and what rounds do you see them all going?

— Colin Borchert

Colin,

Josh Johnson could potentially see a meteoric rise in this year’s draft a la Tarvaris Jackson, and it would not be a surprise to see him drafted as early as the third round because of his upside. However, he grades out as a fifth-round talent, as did Jackson, and carries a developmental label. Ryan O’Hara is big, athletic and has some upside as well, but he does not have a great arm and has faced marginal competition throughout his career. He may not get drafted.

Dennis Dixon’s status will be dictated by the prognosis of team doctors. With Chan Gailey back in Kansas City and looking for the Kordell Stewart-esque, playmaking element under center, it would not be a surprise to see a team like the Chiefs or Steelers give him a look. His play-action fakes are legendary at Oregon, and he should be able to fool the NFL when he is healthy. His workout routine is all being documented online with weekly video updates, and he looks like he is making considerable progress. I would, however, be surprised if a team considered him much earlier than the fifth round.

Colt Brennan’s hip injury could leave him undrafted. In my estimation, he is an overrated product of the system coming off a serious injury that could affect his future. Some team could take a late-round flier on him, but it’s possible he does not get drafted. I think Josh Johnson’s upside and playmaking ability are far more intriguing to teams than Brennan’s silly production in a spread offense.

You indicated the Chiefs are in trade talks. That makes a lot of sense. Defensive end is not a need area. If they could trade down a few spots, and get an extra pick, perhaps they could take Ryan Clady. Who have you heard they are in talks with? I heard Cincinnati wants to move up.

— Jerry, Overland Park, Kan.

Jerry,

From what I'm told, there has been ongoing discussion in Kansas City since the start of free agency about shipping franchised DE Jared Allen to a number of suitors, including Minnesota, Jacksonville or Tampa Bay, in exchange for draft picks. However, if the deal were to occur, it would seem the Chiefs would want the comfort of being able to replace him in the draft. Depending on whether the right defensive end is available at the No. 5 position, a move may not be made until Draft Day. If it does happen, the Chiefs would wind up with an additional first-round pick to address their most pressing need, on the offensive line. However, at this point, with how long negotiations have lingered, there may not be any trade. Regardless of Allen, the Chiefs have also been heavily exploring options to move down from the fifth overall slot, where they would be reaching for an offensive lineman. They would like to acquire more picks to fill the many needs they have, especially on both lines.

Please tell me that Jake Long isn't another Robert Gallery. Maybe I'm getting hysterical here, but didn't Gallery have the same glowing reports as Jake Long does now. Gallery couldn't handle speed rushers at all. Please tell me I'm wrong.

— Chris Craig, San Diego

Chris,

Outside of both having played in the Big Ten, I don’t think the two players could be described in the same sentence. There were evaluators in the NFL when Gallery entered the draft — some even on the Oakland Raiders’ staff, who were obviously tuned out by Al Davis — who felt that Gallery’s short arms would never allow him to be more than a guard in the NFL. His lack of base strength and power have also been regularly exposed in the pros. Jake Long has long arms, is bigger, stronger and much more powerful in the lower body.

I could see where some concerns could creep in. Florida DE Derrick Harvey showed that Long could be caught off-guard. But Long looked much more comfortable in the second half and helped shut down Harvey later in the game, never giving up a sack. Vernon Gholston also gave Long trouble throughout his career, but keep in mind that Gholston is as physically gifted as most any pass rusher in the NFL and represents the highest level of competition Long will see in the pros.

The reality is that Long was not utilized in a blocking scheme that best displayed his talents during his final two years of college. When asked to come off the ball flat-backed and move a defender one-on-one, he is extremely powerful as a run blocker. So, to answer your question, evaluators see Long much more closely resembling Tony Boselli or Jumbo Elliott than Gallery, whose arm length and base strength limitations have proven to make him best-suited inside.

I am really concerned that the Broncos will be "stuck" at 12, i.e. there will not be an impact DL, LB or OT who is worth that pick. I know they want to trade down. Do you think Chicago, Detroit or Arizona would be willing to move up to get (RB Rashard) Mendenhall?

— Dennis Chandler

Dennis,

I would be surprised if Chicago or Arizona moved up. If anything, I think they would both like to move down. The Lions, on the other hand, never cease to surprise. Matt Millen has been known to make panicked, last-minute decisions on the fly. The Eagles may be the most likely to come up, as Andy Reid has shown a tendency to fall in love with players and aggressively move up to secure his target. If there is a run on offensive tackles, it would not be a surprise to see the Eagles move up.

Hey Nolan, first of all, thank you for all your great work. Let’s talk about the Panthers. Marty Hurney drafts for value. However, they have three glaring needs — OT, S, and DL, with OT being the biggest need. There are four quality OTs, but it seems like they want (Ryan) Clady. They want to go to a power running game, so Chris Williams doesn't seem to fit and (Jeff) Otah is more of a ORT, where they like to (keep Jordan) Gross. Could they trade up for Clady or maybe stay put and take (Derrick) Harvey, to add to their anemic pass rush? In the Fox and Hurney era, they have used their No. 1 pick on defense all but two times. Thanks for your insight!

— Mike Grimm

Mike,

When I look at the Panthers’ biggest needs, I am especially concerned about the DE position, with Mike Rucker likely a year away from retirement and Julius Peppers not yet under long-term contract and having shown little motivation to perform in a contract year. Travelle Wharton could move inside to guard if they land a tackle, but I think they have some flexibility with their line.

To me, what noticeably is missing from the power running game offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson is trying to re-establish is a power back. I believe DeAngelo Williams would be best in a complementary, change-of-pace role — not as the bell cow that he is currently slated to be, following the release of DeShaun Foster. Nonetheless, good backs could always be found in the middle rounds, and they may be able to land a Tashard Choice or Matt Forté later.

There is also some depth at defensive end in the draft, not to mention second-year DE Charles Johnson waiting in the wings and expected to play a more prominent role. I would be most concerned about addressing the offensive line early because I don’t think they will be able to find the same value in later rounds. But regardless of need, they have to take the best player. Of the offensive linemen likely to be available, Jeff Otah best fits what they would like to do. At this point, it does not appear likely that Derrick Harvey will be an option, but Fox appeared very impressed at his pro-day workout. There is a chance OT Ryan Clady could be available, but I'm not sure he is tough enough for a coach like Fox or is a great fit for what they want to do.

What do you think the biggest need is for the Lions? They have a number of needs, but I don’t agree running back is the most pressing one like everybody is saying. I think they need to go defense in the 1st round, trade Roy (Williams) to Dallas for a first-round pick and either a 2nd rounder or a dominant D-lineman. What do you think about that? Thanks!

— Esteban Espino-Johnson

Esteban,

It would certainly be interesting. I agree that the Lions might benefit from getting some value now in a trade for Roy Williams when they could lose him in the free-agent market a year from now. However, securing a dominant D-lineman via the trade market is very rare, especially for the right price. Few teams ever knowingly give up a good defensive lineman. With a defense that finished near the bottom of the league in most categories, I think the Lions have a lot of work to do on that side, and they would be wise to continue building it. Ultimately, defense is what won the Super Bowl for the Buccaneers in the 2002 season, and if Rod Marinelli wants to get there, they must get a lot better defensively and find a way to create more turnovers. They did, however, find considerable help on defense via veteran acquisitions.

New offensive coordinator Jim Colleto would like to establish more of a power running game, and Tatum Bell and Brian Calhoun are not power backs. With Kevin Jones sent packing, a bell-cow back would still have to rank as one of the Lions’ top priorities, if not the top, although they might be able to find what they are seeking in later rounds. To me, the offensive line would be a more pressing concern on offense.

I've gotten your Draft Guide, the PFW draft guide, for the last four years. It’s safe to say I enjoy it. It’s concise, you don't mince words. You definitely form an opinion. You are pretty big on character in your negatives area and your summary. SO much of the game is mental, and this is important. What are your sources, generally, for this? Coaches, teammates, pro scouts?

Antoine Cason is a guy that I think divides scouts. Is he a corner that can play man-to-man? Does he have the wheels to press at the next level? I've seen some tape of him, and he seems to have trouble breaking on the ball, and (appears to be) more of a positional guy at this point. I've got him falling well into the second round behind smaller-school guys and less prevalent names, like (Antwaun) Molden of Eastern Kentucky, (Charles) Godfrey of Iowa, and (Patrick) Lee of Auburn. Are my observations sound?

— Andrew Morotti

Andrew,

Most teams take the approach of grading talent separate from character and then factoring in the character grade at the end of the process. For example, Claude Wroten was a first-round talent several years ago, but he warranted a reject character grade from many teams, and his overall grade suffered because of his off-the-field transgressions and unreliability. As a result, he slid to the third round and, thus far, has failed to reach his potential despite showing flashes of greatness, and I would attribute that failure to his character and mental makeup.

To me, even though separate grades can be given for talent and character, the two can never be separated when it comes to determining what type of pros players will become, and anyone who overlooks it, I think, is making a tremendous mistake. To me, work ethic, toughness, competitiveness and intelligence are extremely important traits, and all of the sources you mentioned above (coaches, teammates, scouts) are referenced to arrive at an evaluation of a player’s overall mental makeup, not to mention many others, including high school coaches and anyone who may have come into close contact with players and have intimate knowledge of what makes them tick.

Antoine Cason is interesting. His overall production, ball skills and instincts catch attention, and he has continually proven wrong those who overlooked his ability coming out of high school. In a predominantly zone scheme, I think he could be very effective, but zone corners typically are not valued highly in the draft. Pro Bowlers such as Ronde Barber and Nathan Vasher were not drafted until the middle rounds. Cason worked out better than both and could be drafted earlier than either. He is a far better football player than Molden, who looks like Tarzan and plays like Jane, but his overall physical ability is a notch below Lee’s or Godfrey’s.

2008 Draft Preview

If you would like to read more about the players who are about to enter the April 26-27 NFL draft, Pro Football Weekly has two publications that will fit the bill — the 2008 Draft Preview book and the 2008 Draft Guide.

The 200-page 2008 Draft Preview book, which sells for $19.95, contains detailed scouting reports on nearly 500 prospects with each player's height, weight, 40-time, positives and negatives. You'll also get our rankings of more than 900 draft prospects and a breakdown of each NFL team's needs, by position. Written by PFW personnel analyst Nolan Nawrocki and the editors of PFW, the Draft Preview book is widely recognized as the "bible of the draft." Books are now ready to be shipped. 

2008 Draft Guide

Meanwhile, hot off the presses, the 2008 Draft Guide is a 152-page magazine that sells for $6.99, showcasing feature stories on Arkansas RB Darren McFadden and the secret to drafting success, a sleeper watch, a fantasy forecast and more. In addition, you'll find scouting reports on more than 350 players, draft previews for all 32 teams (including each club's top five areas of need and a "hot list" of prospects who fit the team's schemes) and rankings of the prospects by position. 

The 2008 Draft Guide is available now at newsstands and bookstores throughout the country. Both of the above publications can be ordered now from the PFW store. You will receive a discount if you purchase both the 2008 Draft Preview book and the 2008 Draft Guide magazine from the PFW store with our Combo-Pack offer.

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