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The two smartest and most successful NFL decision makers when it comes to finding talent that I’ve been fortunate enough to learn from were Al Davis and the late Jim Finks.
Davis figured out long before the last few generations of talent gurus arrived on the scene that speed kills, and when all else is equal, speed is the way to go. He also told me that playmakers, or difference makers, are essential to winning championships and when you find a guy who can hit the home run or make the game-saving stop, sometimes you have to ignore a few warts and focus on the talent and production. When considering this advice, looking at the last couple of years is a mistake. Look at the body of Davis’ work and tally the number of chances he’s taken where others might not have, and what does his balance sheet look like?
As the architect of dynasties in Minnesota and Chicago, Jim Finks believed that, first and foremost, games were won and lost in the trenches and that teams had to be built on the offensive and defensive lines. And the one thing he told me that I’ll never forget is that teams that prioritize needs in the draft will almost always fail. Finks believed that while you shouldn’t always draft the “best available athlete,” if you want to win, you have to always draft the “best available football player.”
On this Web site you’ll find our “regardless-of-position” rankings of the top players in this draft. We used to call it the “best available athlete” list, but we changed it because our grades are based on what kind of NFL players these kids project to be, much as Finks taught me, and not how good they are as athletes. Obviously, not every team’s rankings will mirror ours, but based on the outstanding accuracy of these grades in recent years, thanks to Nolan Nawrocki, the final arbiter on the subject at PFW, they’re a very good guide to what this draft should look like. It’s a draft that Finks might have dreamt about, with eight of the top 11, and 12 of the top 19, players being offensive and defensive linemen. If these kids play up to their grades, this could be one of the great first rounds of all time.
Assuming Bill Parcells doesn’t deal the first pick, the first three players chosen by the Dolphins, Rams and Falcons should be Jake Long, Matt Ryan and Glenn Dorsey as their 7.0 grades represent a clear difference over the No. 4-ranked player, Vernon Gholston, at 6.80. Since Parcells apparently isn’t sold on Ryan as a franchise quarterback, he almost has to take Long as the most physically impressive and imposing of the three equally productive players in college. That would likely send Dorsey to the Rams, and Ryan to the Falcons, each team getting the best football player available, and conveniently coming at its greatest area of need.
That leaves the Raiders and Davis with a dilemma at No. 4. You can’t really split Gholston’s 6.80 and Chris Long’s 6.75, and certainly Davis would be delighted with either, particularly the son of one of his own favorite sons, Hall of Famer Howie Long. But were it not for all the off-the-field “warts” on Darren McFadden, who sits at No. 8 with a 6.40, I’m guessing Nolan would have him rated equal to or ahead of the two defensive ends. And I’m betting that, based on what he taught me, Davis does, too.
If McFadden becomes a Raider, and the Chiefs’ grades are close to ours, Carl Peterson has to ignore Herm Edwards’ yearning for Ryan Clady or another stud on the offensive line and, with the fifth overall pick, take the best player, either Gholston or Long, each rated more than four-tenths of a point ahead of Clady. The Jets should then take whichever defensive end the Chiefs don’t.
No team has drafted or built better over the last five or six years than the New England Patriots, but our grades create a problem for them at No. 7. Either Jonathan Stewart or Sedrick Ellis at 6.50 would be the best player available, but neither is likely to crack the Pats’ lineup. The next group at 6.30 is Clady, Branden Albert, Derrick Harvey, Leodis McKelvin and Rashard Mendenhall. I could see the Pats surprising us with Stewart, but they wouldn’t be too far off the chart if they drafted Clady or McKelvin.
While I haven’t seen it projected anywhere, if he’s there, the Ravens should absolutely take Ellis. And if Ellis doesn’t fall to the Bengals, they need to take a hard look at Clady before settling for Harvey. Several mock drafts have the Saints taking a cornerback, but if McKelvin’s gone, the rest of the corners are too much of a reach. While it’s another idea I’m not hearing anywhere else, after looking at the knees on Deuce McAllister and the fact that Reggie Bush is not an every-down back, I think Stewart would be just too good for the Saints to pass up.
Obviously, it’s going to get trickier the deeper you go from here, as teams’ draft boards are not identical and some scouts are better than others, but I hope the point is clear. When your favorite club is on the board, you should hope they lock in on the best player available, and if he happens to be a lineman, that they never pass on him. Free agency is for needs, the draft is for talent, and it’s the draft that will get you to a Super Bowl.
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