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The experts certainly knew what they were talking about. As expected, there was a real premium in the first round this year on big, beefy offensive linemen, with no fewer than eight widebodies being selected — a new league record. But is it possible there might be a first-round bust in the mix? Four PFW editors pinpoint first-round O-line picks who they think could sink before they swim.
PFW executive editor Dan Arkush:
Virginia Tech OT Duane Brown. He was the last O-lineman selected in the first round, and while the Texans’ biggest need was for a stud left tackle, one must wonder if this rather raw Virginia Tech product really has what it takes to be a dominant blocker on the pro level. In PFW’s draft value chart, Brown was rated as a late second-rounder at best, and unless Texans’ O-line maven Alex Gibbs sees something special in Brown that the normal eye couldn’t begin to detect, we could be talking about a real first-round reach here. There’s no denying Brown has the size and athleticism to eventually become a serviceable pro tackle. But if the Texans are planning on him being a true force from the get-go, they could be very disappointed.
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Chris Williams
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PFW senior editor Eric Edholm:
Vanderbilt OT Chris Williams. He doesn’t fit what the Bears — and other teams that value toughness and nastiness — want in an offensive tackle. His best strength is probably his footwork, dancing with talented pass rushers. But how is he going to handle the Vikings’ Jared Allen twice a year? I think the vet will get in the rookie’s head and they’ll have to slant protection his way on every pass play. The Bears always have identified themselves as run team, and Williams hasn’t shown the toughness you’d like to see in what could be a run-heavy offense with Cedric Benson, Matt Forte and others. I think the Bears were caught off guard when Branden Albert was still left on the board, and they felt safer with Williams, whom they have studied a lot since the Senior Bowl. I believe the Bears will rue the day they passed on Albert in favor of Williams.
PFW associate editor Matt Sohn:
USC OT Sam Baker. It happens all the time. A team sees a dwindling pool of players at a position of need, panics, and reaches for a player whose ability doesn’t approach his draft slot. That situation couldn’t have more aptly described what happened to the Falcons in Round One. With six offensive tackles already off the board and believing they needed a tackle to help aid a shoddy line and protect new franchise QB Matt Ryan, the Falcons not only selected Baker at No. 21 a full round earlier than he should’ve gone, but also gave up too much. For as needy as the Falcons are at a host of positions, the draft position that they relinquished in the second round (two picks) was too valuable. From Winston Justice to Jacob Rogers to Travis Claridge, recent highly drafted USC offensive linemen have badly underachieved in the NFL. You’ll soon be able to add Baker to a growing list.
PFW associate editor Michael Blunda:
Boston College OT Gosder Cherilus. After trading down two spots to No. 17, the Lions were in a perfect position to draft Rashard Mendenhall, the type of young stud running back they desperately need. Instead Matt Millen opted for Cherilus, a plodder with questionable footwork and a slow-processing mind. While Cherilus may have had a nice career at Boston College, he does not project to be a star at the pro level, and he’ll probably only be able to play right tackle early on. If Detroit was dead-set on taking an OT, they at least could’ve chosen the more talented Jeff Otah. Like usual with the Lions, however, they failed to make an impact in the first round.
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