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Ask the experts
Which team in the original top 10 took the biggest risk?
By PFW staff
April 26, 2008
It’s common knowledge in league circles that there’s NEVER a sure thing in the NFL draft. So, which teams with an original top-10 draft pick took the biggest risk this year? PFW editors offer four different opinions.
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Joe Flacco and Darren McFadden
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PFW executive editor Dan Arkush:
“The Ravens. Is there really another rookie signalcaller besides Boston College’s Matt Ryan who has a chance to become a decent starting quarterback in the NFL right out of the chute? Apparently, the Ravens think Delaware’s Joe Flacco fills that bill. After watching Ryan, who was widely considered to be the QB they truly coveted, snatched away at the No. 3 spot by the Falcons, the Ravens decided to trade down from the No. 8 spot in the hopes of finding the next best option under center. But it says here there were better options than Flacco, whom the Ravens traded back up from the 26th to the 18th spot to draft, to become Baltimore’s QB of the future. With his big body and strong arm, Flacco has been widely compared to Ben Roethlisberger by many talent evaluators. But there are just as many who think he’s nothing more than a so-so prospect that could have problems at the pro level after establishing himself as a small-school star. I see a John Navarre-type QB in my crystal ball, which the Ravens better hope isn’t the case. In my mind, both Brian Brohm and Chad Henne, who flourished in big-time programs, would have been better picks than Flacco. Even though the Ravens obtained extra selections in their first-round maneuvers that should serve them well, I fear that Flacco is an average Joe at best.”
PFW senior editor Eric Edholm:
“The Jets. As good as Vernon Gholston is, I think there is legitimate concern that he’s not going to be an every-down, every-game kind of player. Look at the tape. Michigan chose to let Jake Long block him one-on-one this season, and Gholston had a big game. But tell me if the player you see in the Akron game is worth the sixth pick in the draft. I like the potential, but I worry he’s going to be very hot and cold and perhaps not as good a linebacker as he was as a college lineman. I wonder if Gholston will be a multiple Pro Bowl pick. That’s what you’re looking for with the No. 6 pick.”
PFW senior editor Mike Wilkening:
“The Falcons. Boston College QB Matt Ryan might be a wonderful pro, but if he’s not, the Falcons will be looking for another quarterback, and head coach Mike Smith and general manager Thomas Dimitroff could be without jobs. Let me be clear: The pick was not a reach, and it was not an illogical one. It was a solid football decision. But was it the riskiest move in the top 10? Of course, because we’re talking about a rebuilding team taking a quarterback. Ryan will likely get $28-30 million guaranteed. If he doesn’t pan out, the salary-cap ramifications will not be immaterial. And the Falcons will be right back at the top of the draft.”
PFW associate editor Matt Sohn:
“The Raiders. Darren McFadden personifies boom-or-bust. Nobody doubts his outstanding physical tools. He hits his top-level speed in a flash, and that top-level speed is simply sensational. His strength is underrated, and LaDainian Tomlinson might say that McFadden’s quick smells like French toast. But the off-field baggage — from his dubious family background, to rumored drug use — he brings to Oakland wreaks of a considerably less pleasant aroma. And as much as Al Davis doesn’t mind taking chances on talented problem children, what makes this pick so risky is not just Sheriff Goodell’s crackdown on player conduct, but coach Lane Kiffin’s unwillingness to put up with McFadden’s antics. Between Justin Fargas, Michael Bush, Dominic Rhodes, LaMont Jordan and now McFadden, the Raiders have the league’s deepest RB stable, and Kiffin won’t hesitate to plant McFadden on the pine if his checkered past catches up with him.”
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