Welcome to another season of PFW’s handicapping column, where I offer my top four plays of the week. I don’t bet a single penny on these games, and thank goodness — it’s nervewracking enough when you’re just playing for pride.

Since joining the PFW staff in 2002, I’ve picked against the spread winners at a slightly better than 56 percent clip in this column. This is my fourth season as PFW’s full-time handicapping columnist. Only once — last season, when I finished one game under .500 — have I posted a losing record.

Over the years, I’ve learned to appreciate the power of the underdog, but I won’t shy away from favorites if I sense value — or conclude one team is miles better than the other.

This is my roundabout way of telling you I’ve picked three favorites and one Over this week. An interesting way to start the season, I’d say.

On to the picks:  

Much is made about how tough it is for teams to repeat as Super Bowl champions, but say this much for the champions of recent seasons: They start fast. Since divisional realignment in 2002, defending Super Bowl champs are 7-0 straight-up and 6-1 ATS in their season openers. The majority of these teams were not overwhelming favorites; only the 2005 Patriots, fresh off back-to-back titles, were laying more than a touchdown in their opener. (Amazingly, two of these defending champions — those aforementioned ’02 Patriots and the 2003 Buccaneers — were underdogs.)

I haven’t seen anyone make a case for the 2008 Giants to win a second consecutive Super Bowl title. They were dead on the board in Super Bowl futures wagering even before DE Osi Umeniyora suffered a season-ending knee injury.

Here is a rare instance where a coach leading the cries of “no respect” is a valid one, one likely to play to an appreciative audience if Tom Coughlin so decides to play it. The Giants come off a historic playoff run — and they aren’t even the favorites to win the NFC East.

You don’t have to like the Giants to win the Super Bowl to like them on Thursday night vs. Washington, a team with a first-year head coach (Jim Zorn) and a quarterback (Jason Campbell) trying to master a new offense. The Giants, a weak 6-10 SU and 7-9 ATS at home the past two years, don't figure to come out flat this season.

Wilkening’s pick: N.Y. Giants

I expect a lot of points in this game. The Steelers’ last six openers have gone Over, and they have scored at least 24 points in five of those games. Their only loss in this span was a 30-14 loss at New England in 2002 when the Patriots — 2½-point underdogs, if you can believe it — spread out the Steelers’ defense and threw, threw and threw some more. That’s a strategy that can still work against Pittsburgh’s version of the 3-4, and the Texans have the offensive personnel needed to employ such an approach. And they will have to, considering their issues at running back; there may be no starting tailback more fragile than Ahman Green, who likely is to get only 10-15 carries on Sunday.

Can Houston keep this close? Perhaps. But what I am especially confident in is the Steelers’ ability to move the ball against a Texans defense that has only one top-notch pass rusher (Mario Williams) and a below-average secondary.

These teams last met in 2005, when the Steelers dusted a Texans club en route to a 2-14 record. Houston is more formidable and can trade punches with Pittsburgh, but probably not for four quarters. 

Wilkening’s pick: Pittsburgh and Over 43.

Minnesota (+2½) at Green Bay

The money has flowed in on the Vikings; the line opened a half-point higher, and Packers backers likely could have bet the Packers at even money (wagering $10 to win $10 as opposed to the typical $11 to win $10) if they wanted to lay the three points.

I can understand the lack of enthusiasm about the Packers. They were distracted earlier in the summer, and the offense could take a step back if QB Aaron Rodgers struggles while learning on the job. But I am confident that Rodgers will play well in his first career start. He has a strong supporting cast, and he has flashed considerable ability in limited playing time. I would not be surprised if he succeeds quickly, a la Chad Pennington with the Jets in 2002. Pennington sat and watched Vinny Testaverde for a little more than two seasons and made the most of that time on the bench.

This is Rodgers’ fourth season. He’s ready to go.

The Vikings have some sparkling individual talent, especially along the defensive line, but their secondary remains vulnerable. What’s more, QB Tarvaris Jackson is coming off a knee injury.

The change at quarterback aside, the Packers are basically the same club that swept Minnesota a season ago and racked up 13 regular-season wins. Certainly they are aware that the Vikings are widely thought of as the new favorite in the NFC North. There I go again talking about motivation, but it’s a valid angle to consider. It's one of several working in the Packers' favor, and the price is right.

Wilkening’s pick: Green Bay