By Pat Fitzmaurice
Aug. 7, 2008

This is the first "Fitz on Fantasy" column of the season by PFW contributor Pat Fitzmaurice. His columns will appear several more times during the preseason and weekly during the regular season.

Ah, marvelous August. The only thing better than the warm temperatures, the taste of a margarita and the smell of burgers grilling on the Weber is the promise of another fantasy football season just around the corner.

This is the time of year when fantasy football draft boards start popping up like ants at a picnic, and I must have seen three dozen of them already. I always enjoy looking over the various draft boards and seeing which players appear to be overrated or underrated. Based on the draft boards I’ve seen so far, here are some of the more overrated and underrated players as of early August …

Overrated

Browns QB Derek Anderson
Yeah, he was the Cinderella story of the 2007 fantasy season, but he’s getting way too much love on preseason draft boards. Anderson is the No. 10 quarterback on my board right now, and even that might be too high for him. He didn’t play very well down the stretch last season, his completion percentage of 56.5 leaves a lot to be desired, and he threw way too many interceptions. Plus, second-year man Brady Quinn waits in the wings.

Rams QB Marc Bulger
The Rams’ new offensive coordinator, Al Saunders, is implementing a complicated scheme, and Saunders puts a heavy emphasis on the running game. WR Torry Holt is getting older, and WR Isaac Bruce is gone. Bulger missed time with a concussion last year, and he has missed significant time with shoulder and rib injuries over the past 3-4 seasons. Bulger is going to get respect in fantasy drafts because he has put up good numbers in three of his last five seasons (the three in which he has stayed relatively healthy). But Bulger’s ceiling isn’t as high as it used to be, and there’s potential for disaster.

Saints RB Deuce McAllister
Few fantasy owners will count on McAllister to be anything more than a backup, but when injuries and bye weeks start to whittle away at your RB depth, will you be able to count on McAllister even as your No. 4 running back? The floorboards in a haunted house are less creaky than McAllister’s knees. With Reggie Bush around, touches will be scarce for McAllister even if he defies the odds and stays healthy, and the potential emergence of Pierre Thomas threatens to further marginalize Deuce.

Giants RB Brandon Jacobs
He seems to be a consensus top-20 running back, and I guess that isn’t too unreasonable, but there are concerns. Jacobs missed a good deal of time with injuries last season and has a running style that invites violent collisions. Plus, with proven backups Ahmad Bradshaw and Derrick Ward at his disposal, Giants head coach Tom Coughlin would be foolish to overwork Jacobs.

Seahawks RB Julius Jones
All of those booing Seahawks fans would have you believe that Shaun Alexander was solely responsible for Seattle’s rushing-game problems last season, but the run blocking was a problem, too. Jones got better run blocking in Dallas last year than he’ll get in Seattle this season, and he still gained only 3.6 yards per carry in 2007. Optimism that Jones will flourish now that he no longer has to share carries with Marion Barber should be tempered by the possibility that Jones now will have to share carries with Maurice Morris, who’s much more familiar with Mike Holmgren’s offense.

Vikings WR Bernard Berrian
Some reasons why I’m not high on him: (1) He never had a 1,000-yard season or more than six TD catches in a season with the Bears; (2) he has to adjust to new teammates and a new system; (3) the Vikings will rely heavily on their running game; (4) Vikings QB Tarvaris Jackson isn’t a good passer; and (5) Berrian might not be appreciably better than teammate Sidney Rice, a potential star.

Steelers WR Hines Ward
He hasn’t had a 1,000-yard season since 2004, he gained a career-worst 10.3 yards per catch last season, and he’s not even the best receiver on his own team. Ward is no longer a top-25 fantasy receiver, and this might be the year that he slips out of the top 40.

Bills WR James Hardy
It’s probably not worth your while to draft any of the rookie receivers. There’s a good reason why there weren’t any receivers selected in the first round of this year’s NFL draft: It’s just not a very good crop. A couple of these guys might turn out to have some fantasy value in 2007, but good luck guessing which ones. A lot of people are betting on Hardy to be the top rookie receiver, presumably because the Bills have an opening for a No. 2 receiver, and because Hardy’s 6-foot-5 frame suggests that he’ll be a red-zone threat. I watched two of Indiana University’s games last season — against Wisconsin and against Illinois, both of which had good cornerbacks — and Hardy did little in either contest. Let someone else gamble on Hardy. Rest assured you won’t be missing out on the second coming of Randy Moss.

49ers TE Vernon Davis
Forget about the alleged potential; if Davis were any good, he’d have shown it already. And now he’s playing in an offense designed by Mike Martz, who never has had much use for tight ends.

Underrated

Broncos QB Jay Cutler
Take a good look at the numbers he put up in his first full season as a starter. He threw for 3,497 yards, had 20 TD passes, completed 63.6 percent of his passes and even ran for 205 yards. Then, consider the fact that Cutler was playing as an undiagnosed diabetic who dropped a frightening amount of weight and was fatigued throughout the season. Almost every draft board I’ve seen ranks Derek Anderson ahead of Cutler. I think Cutler is better by a wide margin. I rank him No. 5 among quarterbacks, ahead of even Carson Palmer and Ben Roethlisberger.

Titans QB Vince Young
Last year’s disappointing numbers turned off a lot of fantasy leaguers, but Young still has the potential to be a fantasy football monster due to his remarkable running ability and his raw potential as a passer. V.Y. ran for 395 yards and three touchdowns last season after running for 552 yards and seven TDs as a rookie. He also dropped from 12 TD passes as a rookie to nine TDs last season, although his yardage total and completion percentage both improved. If new Titans offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger can tap Young’s vast potential, and if Young runs as often and as well as he did during his rookie season, V.Y. easily could become a top-five fantasy quarterback.

Jets RB Thomas Jones
Jones ran for one measly touchdown last season and gained only 3.6 yards per carry, so he’ll go at a deep discount in fantasy drafts this year. The Jets dramatically upgraded their offensive line by adding maulers Alan Faneca and Damien Woody in the offseason. They added Brett Favre to improve the QB position. And they declined to take a running back in this year’s draft, suggesting that they still have confidence in Jones. Plus, Jones is one of those “my body is a temple” guys who keeps himself in fabulous shape, so his age (he’ll be 30 when the season begins) shouldn’t be a problem. I rank him No. 17 among running backs, but most draft boards have him out of the top 20 or 25.

Buccaneers RB Earnest Graham
People seem unable to wrap their brains around the fact that Graham is a legitimate front-line back. He ran for 10 touchdowns last season and scored eight TDs in his 10 starts, making him one of the most reliable TD scorers at the RB position. Don’t worry about Warrick Dunn, Michael Bennett or the injury-ravaged Cadillac Williams stealing carries from Graham. Dunn might see a lot of action on third-down passing situations, but Bennett and Williams aren’t serious threats. Expect Graham to tote a heavy workload and to put up good numbers again. You can almost assuredly get him in the second round of your draft, where he should bring good value.  

Titans RB Chris Johnson
The speedy rookie should, at least, end up in a time-share with LenDale White and might even wind up getting the bulk of the carries, yet Johnson isn’t a top-40 back on most draft boards.

Colts WR Anthony Gonzalez
Here’s the 2008 version of Wes Welker. Like Welker, Gonzalez plays in a lethal passing offense and can operate quietly but effectively in the shadow of another highly regarded receiver who attracts a great deal of defensive attention (in Welker’s case, Randy Moss; in Gonzalez’s case, Reggie Wayne). Expect Gonzalez to put up good numbers even if teammate Marvin Harrison is around all season. But if injuries or legal problems take Harrison out of action, Gonzalez’s numbers could go through the roof.
Bears WR Devin Hester — He still isn’t being taken seriously as a wide receiver, but the Bears have no other playmakers at the position, and Hester is an absolute magician with the ball in his hands. If Hester suddenly “gets it” as a wide receiver, many touchdowns will ensue.

Seahawks WR Nate Burleson
I’ve been doing versions of this preseason overrated/underrated column for a few years now, and Burleson appeared in the “overrated” category in 2005, when he was coming off a 1,000-yard season with the Vikings. I was right then, so I’ll try my luck with Burleson again: I think he’ll have a 1,000-yard season for the Seahawks this season, and he has at least a 50-50 chance of exceeding the nine TD catches he had last season. With Deion Branch on the shelf and D.J. Hackett on another team, it will be Burleson, not Bobby Engram, who establishes himself as Matt Hasselbeck’s go-to receiver this season.

Titans TE Alge Crumpler
This is a great time to buy into Crumpler. He’s coming off a down year statistically, so not a lot of people are ranking him among the top-10 tight ends. Crumpler is now playing for the Titans, who don’t have any firepower at wide receiver, and he’s also playing for an offensive coordinator (the aforementioned Mike Heimerdinger — love that last name, by the way) known for making good use of his tight ends. A Crumpler rebound appears imminent.

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