By Court E. Mann
Sept. 6, 2007

From week to week, your players' fantasy fortunes can fluctuate wildly from touchdown hog to missing person. How else can you explain Ron Dayne rumbling to a 153-yard rushing total in the Championship Week of the 2006 fantasy season?

The truth is that outside of the elite offensive weapons, fantasy production can be a lot more inconsistent than we desire. A player's opponent, location, health, motivation, love life, even his pre-game breakfast can have a significant impact on his numbers in any given week. "Start 'Em-Sit 'Em" aims to elucidate those factors to help you set your lineup. We won't bore you with kicker and defense statistics — after all, you know to start Ray Lewis' Ravens and elite boot Adam Vinatieri — so we'll focus exclusively on your skill-position players. Here are a few reserves you may want to move up your depth chart and a couple weekly regulars you should consider sending to the pine.

Start
Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (@ CLE): Not enamored with throwing Philip Rivers to the Bears in Week One of your fantasy season? Here's a sneaky little option for you. Big Ben looked mighty comfortable in Bruce Arians' offense this preseason, completing 62 percent of his passes in a more vertical, less conservative attack. Sit back and let him pick apart the Browns, against whom he posted 497 yards and three scores last season.

Giants QB Eli Manning (@ DAL): Like Roethlisberger, the younger Manning was probably not drafted to be your starter, but he has shown promise this preseason, is playing for his future and faces a familiar opponent against whom he's enjoyed recent success. Last season vs. them Cowboys, Eli posted 459 yards and four passing scores with just one pick. He also started off en fuego to begin last year, tossing eight touchdowns in his first three outings.

Saints RB Deuce McAllister (@ IND): Reggie Bush is all the rage, but let's not forget that Deuce gained nearly 500 more rushing yards and four more ground scores than Mr. Excitement. You might also recall that the regular-season version of the Colts had more problems stopping the run than any team in football last year and lost their primary run-stuffer (Booger McFarland) to a season-ending injury this summer. The Deuce will indeed be loose.

Jaguars RB Fred Taylor (vs. TEN): Say what you will about Taylor, but as of Week One, the man is starting and healthy. That means you've got yourself the 1,000-yard rushing version of Taylor and not the guy who will gimp out of the way for Maurice Jones-Drew in Week Five. The Titans, Taylor's season-opening opponent, bested only the Colts and Rams in run defense in 2006 and permitted 366 rushing yards to the Jags in last year's series.

Seahawks WR Deion Branch (vs. TB): Branch has done little to warrant all the fantasy attention he's drawn over the years, unless your league awards points for Super Bowl MVP trophies. However, his efforts this summer have earned huge praise emanating from Seattle, and his rapport with QB Matt Hasselbeck is reportedly far better than D.J. Hackett's or Nate Burleson's as they seek to replace Darrell Jackson. Those "stingy" Bucs that Branch faces on Sunday allowed 26 passing scores a year ago, more than all but two other defenses.

Browns WR Braylon Edwards (vs. PIT): Don't be shaking in your books over that vaunted Steel Curtain if you're banking on a breakout season for Edwards. Pittsburgh is particularly vulnerable at corner, and Braylon is a certain mismatch for any Steeler defensive back. More specifically, you have to be impressed with his numbers against them a year ago, when he posted 11 catches for 223 yards and a score over two contests.

Colts TE Dallas Clark (vs. NOR): Last we saw Clark, he was running rampant in the playoffs to the tune of 21 catches and 317 yards in four postseason tilts. The arrival of slot machine Anthony Gonzalez has tempered expectations for Clark, but let's put the rookie under the bright lights before we write Dallas off. Remember, New Orleans is working on a string of 11 straight games with at least one pass play of 20-plus yards, and Chicago turned that trick on them three times in the NFC Championship game. And, dare we say, Peyton Manning is a tad more proficient than Rex Grossman.

Sit
Lions QB Jon Kitna (@ OAK): There is much to be enthused about when it comes to Kitna, but Week One smells like a stinker. Oakland ranked No. 1 in the NFL vs. the pass a year ago, holding opponents to a miniscule 151 passing yards per game and just 17 touchdown tosses. Much of Kitna's upside also revolves around the addition of Calvin Johnson, who hasn't quite set the world on fire just yet. There is also the matter of Kitna's bothersome back spasms, and the related fact that the Lions allowed more sacks than anyone but the Raiders last year. Be cautious with this one.

Titans QB Vince Young (@ JAC): If the jury is still out on V.Y.'s fantasy value at this early stage of his career, then his supporters may not want it back in session this week. One look at Vince's two meetings with the Jags as a rookie would be enough to render a very quick verdict. In two contests, Vince totaled — and I repeat, totaled — 248 passing yards, 18 rushing yards, one passing score, zero rushing scores and three interceptions. Ouch.

Bills RB Marshawn Lynch (vs. DEN): At the start of the summer, early mock drafts were positioning Lynch as an early third-round pick and a clear No. 2 fantasy back. Perhaps that was just a tad aggressive, after watching the Cal product struggle his way to 37 preseason rushing yards on 22 carries. The noted pass-catcher also hauled in only two passes in four tilts. Clearly, the Bills' line needs time to gel, and Lynch has to adjust to the NFL level.

Falcons RB Warrick Dunn (@ MIN): Dunn may have held off explosive teammate Jerious Norwood for the time being, but by no means does that make him a viable fantasy play on Kickoff Weekend. The Falcons take their uncertain future on the road to Minnesota, where were it not for the Week 17 exploits of Steven Jackson (142 rushing yards), the Vikings may very well have set an NFL record for fewest rushing yards allowed in a single season. With little to worry about in Joey Harrington's air attack, you better believe Kevin Williams and Pat Williams will be loading up to stuff the run.

Bears WR Bernard Berrian (@ SD): Devin Hester and Greg Olsen have been the talk of Bears training camp, but Berrian is the fantasy performer who figures to benefit most in this improving unit. Still, it hardly looks like a ripe opportunity for Berrian as Chicago visits San Diego. The Chargers led the NFL in sacks last season, and we've all seen how quickly it can fall apart when Grossman is under pressure. He's not likely to have enough time to find Berrian streaking down the sideline.

Chargers WR Vincent Jackson (vs. CHI): The Bears know a thing or two about defense as well, making everyone's favorite sleeper a risky proposition on the other sideline. As enticing a prospect as Jackson is, he's still caught a mere 30 passes in his NFL career and plays third fiddle to two of the best red-zone options in football, so he's far from a sure thing. Chicago held opponents to less than 200 passing yards per game a year ago.

Eagles TE L.J. Smith (@ GB): It's a long fantasy season, one in which you're going to be dealing with a lot of injuries and game-time decisions. Seeing that, there's very little reason to mess with a health risk when almost every other option you have is 100 percent. Smith had hernia surgery this offseason and sustained a related groin injury in camp. It's simply not worth using him and watching him gimp off after taking his initial dose of NFL contact.