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We spend months coming up with our positional rankings for each of the fantasy positions here at PFW, and let me tell you, there’s a lot of back and forth on the subject.
It’s a collaborative effort, and we try to reason why players are ranked where they are, based on past production and future potential. But an underrated element of preparing for the fantasy season is knowing how the depth at each position stacks up.
For instance, using 2007 as an example, PFW ranked its top fantasy quarterbacks heading into the season as such: Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Tom Brady (hey, who knew?), Marc Bulger, Drew Brees, Donovan McNabb, Matt Hasselbeck, Philip Rivers and, before the dogfighting scandal broke, Michael Vick.
Let’s pause there for a moment. I remember reading comments from a mock draft that was unaffiliated with PFW where the drafter took Jon Kitna, his sixth-ranked QB, and made a comment of: “Snagged the last elite quarterback,” or something along those lines. I paused and thought for a minute. Even if Kitna was his No. 6 QB, was he really an elite quarterback?
Clearly, no.
It’s a task I make myself perform before our in-house draft every summer — I go through the positions, one at a time, and identify the “drop points” where the talent takes a significant dip. For instance, using the ’07 rankings for a minute, I would have placed the drop-off then after Brees, maybe McNabb. I just don’t consider Hasselbeck or Rivers to be top-shelf fantasy producers, or I didn’t at the time, on the same level as the other guys. So, even if they are 1-2 spots behind my top guys, the drop-off is significant.
I hear a lot of people look back at their draft and say things like, “I got my fourth-ranked QB, the fifth- and 12th-ranked running back, two top-20 receivers and a top-six tight end.” That’s dandy, but where were the drop-offs? What if the elite guys were the top three QBs, the top four running backs, the top 6-7 receivers and only three tight ends? Then that guy might be staring at a long fantasy season.
There are more than one drop with each position group. Clearly, with running backs, there might be four or five or more. I guess if I had to name them, the different drop levels might be: elite, very good, good, fair and non-starter. Maybe those last two categories bleed together a bit, and the rankings will vary based on your league’s rules (three starting receivers, flex positions, etc.).
A good way to look at it is this: In a 12-team league such as ours, we start one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers and one tight end. (For now, let’s not worry about kickers and defenses, even though there clearly are drops there, too.) That means there are 12 weekly fantasy starters at QB in our league, 24 running backs, 36 receivers and 12 tight ends. Using that template as our base, we can look at the individual positions and determine how important it is to get certain positions on board early and which ones can afford waiting in the draft.
Because we use three wideouts, I like to get as many as I can. To me, receiver is the new running back — and there are more to choose from. Every NFL team starts at least two, some three or four, so there are at least 40 NFL receivers who play the majority of their respective teams’ snaps, and perhaps another dozen or so who get regular reps as a third or fourth wideout.
Now let’s look at PFW’s WR rankings and apply our league’s rules to figure out where the drop points are and where I need to be drafting these guys. Again, this is opinion and subject to conjecture, but that’s where you are going to have to decide who the big boys are and where the talent levels off at each spot.
Randy Moss, Terrell Owens and Braylon Edwards are our top three guys. Heck, as tempted as I am to put Moss in his own category after last season, I’ll say these three guys are in the elite category. I am not afraid to admit that I veer off PFW’s rankings a bit because, remember, they are a consensus of many people’s opinions. I also am tempted to throw Andre Johnson and Reggie Wayne onto my elite list. And if I was ranking the next tier, there would not be a serious drop-off to guys like Steve Smith (our No. 8 receiver), Chad Johnson (No. 10), Marques Colston (No. 7), Larry Fitzgerald (No. 4) and Plaxico Burress (No. 12). I’d lump all those guys in a group just one small notch below the top dogs.
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Bengals WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh
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So my first noticeable drop-off comes with T.J. Houshmandzadeh. I like the guy a lot, but I don’t think there’s a chance in heck he catches that many passes again. I think the Bengals will balance the run and pass better, and Housh will go back to being what he mostly has been in his career: an excellent possession receiver. Mark that as my first big drop-off. And here is who follows, per our WR rankings (minus the guys I've slotted a bit higher): Torry Holt, Wes Welker, Anquan Boldin, Brandon Marshall and Roy Williams. All those guys have questions or limitations that are big enough for me to consider them a level under who we just talked about. All are quality, starting fantasy receivers, but they are more No. 2s than No. 1s.
Drop down a bit more, and you’ll see my next demarcation. Ranked 25-27, we have Lee Evans, Joey Galloway and Roddy White. I actually would make Galloway and White the last two guys of my second big tier of wideouts and put Evans at the top of my third tier. Is there a huge difference between White and Evans in my mind? No, but it’s a big enough gap where I feel I have to get one over the other. This is where the rankings can be misleading.
Further down, there are more drops — Anthony Gonzalez (No. 38) and Sidney Rice (No. 40) are right at the tail end of where I consider guys to be every-week starters, or close to it. Javon Walker (No. 35) and Patrick Crayton (No. 36) are not players I would consider fantasy starters, even in a three-WR league, so they go into the “fair” class.
There are going to be players outside anyone’s rankings who you feel might belong in higher-up groups. That’s fine; mark them with a little star or dot, as I do. Maybe you can work out your own code or key to determine which lower-ranked players belong where in your mind.
But it’s important to identify where these drops occur. It will help determine your draft strategy. If you feel there are three elite running backs, 10 who are very good, nine who are good, seven more who are fair and the rest non-starters, then make a draft plan and try to stick to it. Plan on snagging one of those top-three guys if you can, but if not, don’t panic and reach for that fourth guy; the No. 13 back might only be slightly less productive than No. 4.
What I like to do for each drop point is to draw a line below the last elite guy, indicating where the major drop point is, and if someone below that line belongs higher in your mind, draw a small arrow. If you spend an hour (at most) doing this before your draft, you won’t be wishing you took a tight end three rounds earlier with all the good ones gone.
There will be curveballs throughout your draft, and you most certainly will have runs on certain positions, especially running back. If you smell one coming or are in the midst of one, check your chart. If you have a pick coming up and there are only five more “good” backs left, well, you might as well grab one when you can. But if there is a run on “fair” backs, and meanwhile you still see 3-4 “very good receivers” or an “elite” tight end, the value approach says that you take the WR or TE and let others fight over Julius Jones and Earnest Graham.
I am not going to look at every position here; that’s your job to determine — with our help, of course. But the approach is one I highly recommend. It saves you time on draft day, and it allows you to recognize the most subtle of differences in a given position’s strength. That way, our months of research can help you make quick decisions on the clock without panicking and merely taking the highest-rated player left on that board that you really don’t want but feel compelled to take.
It’s what we’re here for.
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