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We first got the idea that things were going to start being different in the AFC East in late December, when the division’s bottom feeder released a franchise-changing news bulletin:
The Dolphins have hired Bill Parcells as executive vice president of football operations.
“A quality first step,” I recall thinking.
Just shy of a month later, we were given a second wave of notices — another from Miami, one from small-market Buffalo.
The Dolphins have named Tony Sparano head coach.
The Bills have named Turk Schonert offensive coordinator.
“Another great decision with Sparano,” I said to myself when the move was made official on Jan. 16. “A tough, no-nonsense guy is exactly what the Fins need.”
I was equally as intrigued when Schonert was promoted from QB coach to lead Buffalo’s offense. Sure, the next play he calls will be his first, but here’s a guy with the West Coast “let it rip” mentality who’s going to bring some excitement to a listless passing game. Granted, nearly anyone would’ve brought more life to the offense than Colorado State-bound Steve Fairchild — whose playbook was about as exciting as Crochet for Dummies — but the bottom line was that better offensive production in Buffalo appeared inevitable.
But when these men were put in place a couple months ago, few figured it actually mattered on a macro level. Back then, the relevance of the AFC East extended no further than to that perfection-seeking juggernaut up in Boston. The Patriots were 6-0 against their three cream-puff division rivals in 2007, and had just as sterling a record against the rest the league. Any inkling that New England’s stranglehold over its division foes could be in jeopardy entering the ’08 season would’ve been met with some combination of laughter and mockery.
After all, the ’07 AFC East was about as top heavy as any division in the salary-cap era could realistically be. On the top were the Patriots, whose 16 regular-season victories were four more than the rest of the division combined. Pick your superlative to describe them. Dominating. Awe-inspiring. Magnificent. They were so good that the majority of the football world felt compelled to revisit a single videotaping “scandal” that occurred Week One on a seemingly daily basis in order to make a case that the Pats, like the other 31 teams, weren’t without a blemish of their own. It didn’t seem to matter that all teams participate in the signal-stealing industry to some degree, as coaching luminaries Jimmy Johnson and Mike Dtika have pointed out. Neither did it matter that "Spygate" had exactly zero impact on New England’s record.
As for the Bills, Dolphins and Jets? They could’ve been caught running an underground prostitution ring and it would’ve registered hardly a blip on the “Give-a-Crap-’O-Meter.” Hyperbole aside, that’s basically the life of little guys, especially when in the shadow of the behemoth.
But ever since David Tyree, Plaxico Burress and Co. did the unthinkable in the Arizona desert, the Patriots’ aura of invincibility has begun to crumble. At the same time, their division foes have all taken major steps forward. Do the quick math and it’s clear: The AFC East will be competitive in 2008.
The Pats certainly are the favorites, but to preface “favorites” with “overwhelming” would be to underestimate the fluidity of the NFL hierarchy. Few, if any, professional sports leagues do a better job of ensuring year-to-year parity than the NFL, and the evening out of the AFC East’s balance of power in 2008 should exemplify this.
Considering just how badly the Pats outclassed their division brethren last season, the mere thought that they shouldn't be automatically penciled in for the ’08 division crown is astounding.
But after the Bills, Dolphins and Jets rejuvenated themselves by making a host of shrewd hires, fires and trades over the past few weeks — all three teams rank among the league’s 10 best offseason hauls, in my estimation — and the Pats riddled with defensive issues, the division’s status quo has been uprooted.
A refresher on the shakeups of the AFC East:
Miami (1-15 in 2007): With Parcells pulling the strings in South Florida, the Fins have undergone the most radical transformation in the league. Exit the faded veterans of yesterday, guys like QB Trent Green, NT Keith Traylor, MLB Zach Thomas and WR Marty Booker. Enter a cavalry of fresh bodies primed for action, guys like OLB Reggie Torbor (of the champion Giants), WR Ernest Wilford, OG Justin Smiley (his bum shoulder shouldn’t be a problem) and NT Randy Starks. NT Jason Ferguson is on the wrong side of 30 and coming off a biceps tear, but the addition of widebodies Ferguson and Starks ensures that Miami will be able to make a smooth transition to its preferred 3-4 defense. QB Josh McCown doesn’t get the Fins' faithful particularly giddy, but he’s an upgrade over John Beck and the departed Cleo Lemon. The only free agent the Dolphins really cared about keeping, S Yeremiah Bell, is back on board. Factor in a new coaching staff that has a definitive plan, and these Fins are clearly on the rise. Yes, they’re still the odds-on favorite to be the division’s cellar-dweller, but they certainly have a puncher’s chance of mixing it up with the big boys — something that couldn't be said last season.
New York Jets (4-12): With the possible exception of the Browns, no team can stake a better claim to the league’s best offseason than the Jets. Knowing their offensive and defensive lines needed substantial face lifts, coach Eric Mangini and GM Mike Tannenbaum coaxed owner Woody Johnson to dig deep into his pockets to reel in a trio of horses to take up residence in the trenches. OLG Alan Faneca is arguably the best in the business and will aid in the maturation process of supremely talented but inconsistent young linemen D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold. ORT Damien Woody isn’t the beast he was in his early career in New England, but he’s still a major upgrade over Anthony Clement. In Kris Jenkins, Mangini finally has a mammoth nose tackle to anchor the defense. Throw in coveted OLB Calvin Pace to wreak havoc off the edge, and we have ourselves a team that looks to be substantially better than the 2006 Jets squad that bullied its way into the postseason.
Buffalo (7-9): When he’s healthy, Marcus Stroud is among the most dominating defensive tackles in the game. Unfortunately, staying healthy isn’t his forte. The Jaguars traded him to the Bills for third- and fifth-round draft picks in part because they doubted his durability, but a trusted source in Buffalo told me that the Bills are convinced that he will be at full strength for 2008. Throw OLB Kawika Mitchell (also of the champion Giants) into the fray at “Will,” and the Bills’ pass rush doesn’t look quite so anemic and their run defense doesn’t look quite so soft. Bereft of noteworthy personnel losses, the bolstered “D” and a more mature offense under Schonert’s direction will have the Bills firmly in playoff contention. Adding either TE Ben Troupe or WR Bryant Johnson — both of whom visited with the team this week — to the offensive arsenal would make a good offseason great.
New England (16-0): Offense? Check. By re-signing Randy Moss, every key contributor from the most prolific offense ever is back. Defense? Uh-oh. The secondary is an utter disaster. Salary-cap constraints forced them to wave good-bye to Asante Samuel and, to a certain extent, Randall Gay, leaving undersized Ellis Hobbs as the only suitable corner on the roster. You could just feel their desperation when they recently picked up pint-sized journeyman CB Jason Webster, a player so fragile that he has suited up in just 39-of-80 games over the past five years. The LB corps is in slightly better shape considering Mike Vrabel and Adalius Thomas are certifiable studs, but the Pats had to grudgingly sever ties with Rosevelt Colvin because of cap and injury issues, and only those living in a complete state of denial would say that Tedy Bruschi remains a force in the middle.
The next couple weeks will see a smattering of personnel changes here and there, but the rosters will remain mostly static between now and April’s draft. And that simply isn’t a peachy scenario for the Pats.
The prevailing party-line stance in the NFL is that you build through the draft, not free agency. While I agree with that stance in terms of long-term stability, a team’s incoming FA crop (or veterans acquired by trade) is bound to have a considerably bigger impact in Year One than its draft class.
The 2007 Patriots epitomized that notion. A year ago, they were the ruling class of the offseason, bringing in Thomas, Moss, Wes Welker and Donté Stallworth. It doesn’t take much detailed analysis to realize that the Pats’ barnstorming season can be credited, in large part, to the newbies.
But this go-round, it’s the Pats being forced to sit around idly while their once-woeful AFC East rivals get their pick of the litter.
And just like that, one division race that once seemed to be a foregone conclusion just got a whole lot more interesting.
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