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You’ve all heard the story of parity in the NFL ad nauseam by now. Of the various ways to express how balanced the league is, my favorite is the fact that over the past nine seasons, only twice have more than half of the playoff clubs from the previous year managed to repeat, and even then, in 2002 and 2004, only seven of the 12 participants from the prior season returned to the playoffs.
But that stat can be a tad misleading because, among those clubs that have gotten back, the Colts, Patriots, Seahawks, Eagles, Packers, Steelers and Giants have consistently been at or near the top, each making at least four playoff appearances over the past six seasons and claiming five of those six Super Bowl titles among them. While parity over the past decade or so has been a fact of life in the NFL, and “On any given Sunday …” has never been more true, those seven teams and a couple of others have always been the cream at the top we could count on, until 2008.
With just under 30 percent of this regular season in the books, the signs are everywhere that 2008 will bring upheaval the likes of which we’ve never seen before. Of the eight teams to play for a spot in the conference title games this past January, only the defending world champion Giants are now in first place in their division. The Chargers, Seahawks, Jaguars and Packers are all below .500. Indianapolis is the softest 2-2 we’ve ever seen, and the Patriots are struggling with their defending MVP and quarterback, Tom Brady, having been lost for the year. Only the Cowboys are playing at a level close to the Giants. And in the interest of full disclosure, three of the Giants’ four wins were over the 0-5 Bengals, 0-4 Rams and 1-3 Seahawks.
I know it’s early, and I hope not to get caught in a game of counting unhatched chickens here, but the combinations of injuries and warts on the Colts, Pats, Jaguars, Seahawks and Packers make it awfully difficult for me to envision any of them as a serious contender for a conference title game this year. The Eagles climbing over everybody else in the NFC East seems unlikely, as well.
Making this all that much more intriguing is a look at where the strength is around the league. At 5-0, the Titans have to be at or near the top of every power-rankings chart. While their defense could probably play with anyone in any season, their offense still has a lot of questions to answer. The other power in the AFC has been the Bills, absent from the playoffs since 1999 and 4-0 prior to their Week Five struggles in the desert with the Cardinals. Even at 4-1, the Bills are leading the AFC East. Shockingly, the Pats, Steelers and Broncos are the only other teams in the AFC besides the Titans and Bills that are better than .500.
In the NFC, the Cowboys, Redskins and Panthers each sit just half a game behind the Giants at 4-1, and the Bears, Bucs and Cardinals have all shown flashes at 3-2, but each of those three has also displayed its share of blemishes.
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Colts S Bob Sanders
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A couple of questions jump out of all this. First, which of the perennial powers is truly toast? The Pats’ only certain loss is Brady, so we can’t write them off yet. As weak as the Colts have looked, if they can stay above water, they will get Bob Sanders, Ryan Lilja and Jeff Saturday all healthy in plenty of time to make a late-season run. Although the Steelers’ combination of injuries and offensive-line woes appears too serious to overcome, somebody has to win the AFC North. The Packers are as banged up as the Steelers, but they also play in a division that nine wins might claim. While I thought the Eagles had the goods, it’s hard to imagine them climbing over enough clubs in the NFC East. Meanwhile, the Seahawks show no signs of life at all. Obviously it’s too early to deal in absolutes, but it’s quite possible every one of these clubs will be home in January.
The other, more interesting question is: Has the NFC suddenly become the power conference after playing poor relation to the AFC for over a decade? Again, it’s still early, but it certainly looks that way to me.
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