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Without prematurely bestowing any titles on anyone, it’s not all that difficult to figure out who the best teams in the NFL are in 2007. I’m struggling to recall the last time there was this much power at the top. The Patriots, of course, lead the way, and most folks have the Colts, Cowboys, Jaguars, Packers and Steelers in a bunch right behind them, although I’ll debate anyone who thinks Green Bay, Jacksonville and Pittsburgh are clear choices over the Seahawks and Chargers. The bottom line is that 2007 has me truly excited about the pending playoffs, which appear to have a real chance to be the best ever.
But what has happened to the “P” word? As comfortable as we’ve become with the idea that parity is a fact of life and that, other than a few teams at the top, the rest of the league could be tossed into a hat and however they fell out could dictate the standings, that perception has become a fantasy. As good as the eight at the top are, there are at least 10 teams at the bottom that are all so bad I have no idea who the worst is, and none figures to be visiting the playoffs soon.
OK, I take that back. The Miami Dolphins are the worst team in the NFL by a wide margin, and that rebuilding is already under way with “Tuna helper” in town. But what about the Jets, Ravens, Bengals, Raiders, Chiefs, Falcons, 49ers, Rams and Bears? When did all of those teams get so bad, and is there any chance of a quick fix for any of them? One might even argue the Panthers, Lions and Broncos belong in this group, as well. For the first time in a long time, there is almost no middle class in the National Football League.
What do the “Big Eight” have in common? They boasted the top six quarterbacks in the league going into Week 16, and while Matt Hasselbeck was the ninth-rated passer, he actually has been hotter than that over the second half of the season. Of the eight teams, Philip Rivers is the only starting QB whose credentials are questionable, yet he’s a highly drafted thoroughbred whose upside certainly exceeds his liabilities.
What do the bottom 13 teams have in common? Only Cincinnati, St. Louis and Denver can say with some certainty they’re set at the QB position going forward. The Raiders, Jets and 49ers have youngsters they’ve invested heavily in, with no definitive results to date, and the other six teams are in big trouble at the game’s pivotal position.
So, which clubs are in the biggest trouble? The Rams have suffered an unbelievable string of injuries on the offensive line, and they, the Bengals and the Broncos all have the talent on offense to win right now. One season of vast improvement on one side of the ball is not unheard of, so 2008 could be kinder to those three clubs if their quarterbacks are healthy, although I’m still not sure why Marvin Lewis should be back in Cincinnati in 2008.
While the Raiders, 49ers and Lions are painful to watch right now, all three have stockpiled enough talent by drafting in the top 10 every year over the past four or five drafts that if their young QBs figure it out — or, in the case of the Lions, Mike Martz or whoever gets his job is willing to run the ball and give Jon Kitna a chance — things could get better quickly.
My race to the bottom leaves me with six clubs threatening to battle the Dolphins in futility next season: the Jets, Ravens, Chiefs, Falcons, Bears and Panthers. That is particularly stunning for the Ravens and Bears, who were NFL royalty just a season ago at 13-3, with the Bears in the Super Bowl. The Falcons, like the Dolphins, will be in full rebuilding mode as soon as Arthur Blank can find someone to take the job, so they’re almost certain to challenge the Dolphins at the bottom again next year. One has to assume the Panthers are at least a couple of games better next year by getting Jake Delhomme back, and there may be enough talent there for a healthy QB to make them a contender again.
The remaining four clubs that appear to have a chance to battle Miami and Atlanta for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2009 NFL draft have two questions very much in common: Where will the talent come from, and are Brian Billick, Herm Edwards, Lovie Smith and Eric Mangini the men to lead their resurgence? The one big edge the Jets and Ravens may have over the Bears and Chiefs is that while all four have struggled on the O-line this year, Baltimore and New York may have the answers already on hand. The other edge the Ravens and Jets appear to own is that their drafting records over the last 3-5 years are much better than the Bears’ and Chiefs’.
Unfortunate and incongruous as it may seem for franchises with as much heritage in the NFL and AFL as these two clubs have, I’m hard-pressed to find a reason to suggest that the Bears and Chiefs aren’t staring at hard times for several years to come. Both are in need of complete reconstruction of their offensive lines, and both defenses may need to be overhauled before the offenses are completely fixed.
As for the return of parity, talk to me after we see if this year’s playoffs can live up to the high standards I’ve set for them.
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