In this column space this season, I hope I've been able to help with a few lessons in daily fantasy sports.
Most of these lessons revolve around how we think when it comes to constructing a fantasy football roster each week. How you confront recency bias, why you should take a hard look at some weather patterns (wind) over others (snow), with all of these lessons designed to put you in the best position to put together a winning DFS roster.
This is the last "normal" week of DFS for the season. Week 17 always gets crazy, because an inordinate amount of value plays open up by the end of the week. When teams have basically quit on the season, or others are benching players or playing starters for only a half because a playoff spot is already cemented, underpriced guys become fantasy studs. You'll be able to do pretty much any stars-and-scrubs lineup you want next week.
But this week, I'm actually looking at some NFL coaches and lessons they've learned about their teams this season and trying to apply it for Week 16. Don't be afraid to try something new.
Ty Montgomery was the fantasy darling of last week, as Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy finally unleashed Montgomery with a full load of carries at running back, leading to 162 yards. His number may be in the 80s, but Montgomery showed every bit the type of burst needed to succeed at running back.
DFS sites still don't know what price Montgomery should be, and they only recently moved him to RB. He's just outside the top 10 running backs in price, with a date against the Vikings, who used to be a good defense.
Bill O'Brien and the Houston Texans finally got wise and benched Brock Osweiler for preseason stud Tom Savage. Savage has three years of experience with O'Brien's system and, most importantly, an actual connection with DeAndre Hopkins.
Remember Hopkins? The fantasy stud who was one of the highest-priced DFS receivers for most of 2015? He's back, and got 17 targets last week and his most yards since Week 2. He's priced right in the middle of WRs this week, and should be a popular play.
Chances are you haven't put Hopkins on your DFS roster in months, and Savage all year. They're one of my favorite cheap stacks this week against a Bengals team with nothing to play for at all.
Finally, Todd Gurley. On the PFW Fantasy Football podcast, I've made suggestions that Gurley is Trent Richardson 2.0, but even I can't resist his matchup this week against the 49ers. San Francisco has an all-time terrible rush defense, already giving up the most rushing yards in a season in franchise history – with two games remaining.
Gurley has been nothing short of disappointing this season, but with Jeff Fisher gone and at least something different to play for, why not try someone new like Gurley.