DFS: Jump on these improving situations while prices are still low

By JOHN SAHLY – jsahly@shawmedia.com
Published: Updated:
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson walks at midfield after defeating the New England Patriots 31-24 in an NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 13, 2016, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson walks at midfield after defeating the New England Patriots 31-24 in an NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 13, 2016, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Steven Senne) — Steven Senne

Last week in this space, I wrote about challenging some assumptions. Finding success in daily fantasy sports can often be found while leaving your comfort zone, especially in big tournaments.

I'll toot my own horn for a second here: Mark Ingram averaged 4.5 yards a carry against the Broncos, Jordan Howard ran for 100 yards on the Bucs and while Aaron Rodgers didn't hurt you, his much cheaper counterpart Marcus Mariota was the better use of your salary cap dollars.

This week, I want to focus on jumping on guys who have either improved or changed roles, but their price points don't reflect it.

1) Russell Wilson

Who saw his game against the Patriots coming? According to one source, he had the third-highest QB rating in New England in the Bill Belichick era.

The first half of Wilson's season had largely been a dud, but he had been hurt for most of it with a sprained MCL and a pectoral injury. Wilson isn't testing that knee out on the ground just yet with just three rushes in in the past three games, but he's clearly more comfortable in the pocket.

Yet this week, Wilson is priced as the 14th-most expensive quarterback on FanDuel and eighth-most expensive on DraftKings in their main slates. Historically, Wilson is a better player later in the season. His QB rating in October for his career is 95, while in November it's 112.5 and December it's 107.2.

Wilson gets the Eagles this week, which isn't a cupcake matchup, but he is at home and the Eagles corners are banged up with Nolan Carroll in the concussion protocol and Leodis McKelvin dealing with a hamstring injury.

Speaking of Seattle...

2) C.J. Prosise

Well, the Christine Michael era was fun while it lasted. For whatever reason, the Seahawks don't seem to trust Michael, but they have entrusted the rookie Prosise. He led the Seahawks in receptions in the New England victory and even got two goal-line carries.

Priced outside of the top 20 running backs on FanDuel and DraftKings, Prosise appears to have the lead-back role in the Seattle offense, with the ability to score on the ground and through the air.

3) Allen Robinson

Robinson's target totals the past three weeks: 15, 12, 13. His price: Still not close to where it was at the start of the season when he was projected as one of the top fantasy receivers in the league.

Quietly, Robinson is salvaging fantasy owners investment in him with a touchdown in the past two games. He was priced at $8,300 in Week 1 on DraftKings. He's still just $7,400 this week, and now he gets a burnable Detroit secondary.

And one guy I'm not jumping on, no matter how low his price goes..

4) Todd Gurley

I mentioned this on the PFW Fantasy Football podcast last week, there's some social media chatter comparing Gurley to Trent Richardson, who also had an electric rookie year before flaming out of the league. I'm not saying Gurley is there just yet, but the trend of poor performances is starting to draw reasonable comparisons.

Gurley averages 3.1 yards a carry, hasn't run for 100 yards in a game since Week 15 of last season, and hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 5. It doesn't help him that he has one of the worst quarterbacks in the league in Case Keenum, but Gurley hasn't found a way to overcome that.

He's just $5,000 this week on DraftKings, an enticing price. But until he shows any signs of life, I'm staying away from Gurley.

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