The Colts are hoping for a repeat of 1998, when they drafted Peyton Manning and avoided Ryan Leaf. Fantasy owners can hope for the same, but unlike the Colts, who will thrust Luck into the starting role, fantasy owners should not.
Rookie quarterbacks are notorious for throwing more picks than touchdowns their debut years. Manning had a 26-28 TD-INT ratio his rookie season. If Luck can achieve that, many will take it. Cam Newton is an exception to the rookie QB rule, with a 21-17 TD-INT ratio in 2011. Newton also has an advantage Luck doesn’t — elite athleticism. Newton’s legs bought him extra time and his strong arm allowed him to go deep on the run. Luck is not the athlete Newton is, but that said, Luck is deceptive with straight-line speed and can evade would-be tacklers in the open field.
The concern with his “deceptive speed” is the level of play in the NFL, where failure often is born from an inability to adapt to the speed of the game. No one doubts his skills, his strength to read defenses and his potential, but his rookie season — on a team in complete rebuilding mode — is not the time to draft him outside of dynasty leagues.
Follow William Del Pilar on Twitter