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Fantasy spin: Tim Tebow

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Recent posts by William Del Pilar

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Posted March 22, 2012 @ 12:32 p.m. ET
By William Del Pilar

Tebowmania is now in the Big Apple and we're sure to see the team's "Wildcat" formation resurface. No one doubts Tebow's fantasy potential, as rushing quarterbacks can make up with their legs what they lack in passing statistics. However, Tebow is not going to be a starting QB, rather a gimmick player.

He ended last season completing 126-of-271 passes (46.5 percent) for 1,729 yards and 12 TDs with six interceptions in 14 games and was also second on the team in rushing with 122-660-6. That was an average of 123.5 passing yards and 0.86 TDs with 0.43 interceptions and 8.7 rush attempts for 47.1 yards and 0.4 TDs. He had fantasy potential and upside in Denver but now has minimal value as Jet. However, he's still a recommended hold for dynasty league owners.

Tebow completed only 47.3 percent of his passes and is still raw in mechanics and accuracy. He did gain 5.4 yards a carry and accounted for 18 total TDs, but in fantasy scoring it was the equivalent of 21 TDs. Most leagues score throwing TDs as four points but that's hardly anything to brag about when elite QBs throw 30-plus TDs every year.

Not to defend Tebow but had he been the starting QB from Day One we're probably looking at 23-25 total TDs, with the assumption that one-third of those TDs would have been rushing ones making up for poor passing numbers. Regardless, the jury is out on his long-term value as an NFL quarterback.

There is talk that he should switch positions to become either an H-back or a tight end. Right now, the Jets will use him as their "Wildcat" QB, which means he will pile up the rushing yards but "pile up" is a relative term that depends on how much he's used. The team will mix it up with him, as well, since he completed six passes for 40 yards or more last season.

Tebow will be a popular fantasy pick this year and it's because fantasy owners can’t help themselves as they try to look like geniuses by taking the “sexy” pick — and Tebow falls in that category. Luckily for fantasyland, despite signing Drew Stanton, the Jets are making Tebow the No. 2 quarterback behind Mark Sanchez, the current starter. That doesn’t change the perception and belief that Tebow’s still a project.

I'm not comparing him to Steve Young in QB talent but Young did have his own journey before eventually becoming a Hall of Fame quarterback for the 49ers. Can Tebow followin Young's footsteps? Probably not, but unlike most critics I believe there is long-term hope for Tebow.

Sanchez just received a contract extension but is on the hot seat and the Big Apple is not merciful to those who don't win. If Sanchez doesn't improve he's out in a couple of years.

Right now, view Tebow is a dynasty-league keeper and a late-round draft pick for those that are insistent on taking him. Draft and stash him because his playing time is not known. That's why he's a big risk and someone you should let another owner draft.

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