Pro Football weekly

Comment | Print |

Saints' fantasy questions for the offseason

About the Author

Recent posts by William Del Pilar

Fantasy spin: Clark signs with Buccaneers

Posted May 22, 2012 @ 8:26 p.m.

Fantasy spin: Winslow traded to Seahawks

Posted May 22, 2012 @ 6:15 p.m.

Around Fantasyland: Quarterback updates

Posted May 22, 2012 @ 12:31 p.m.

Fantasy spin: Patriots' RB corps

Posted May 15, 2012 @ 9:21 p.m.

Fantasy spin: Young signs with Bills

Posted May 12, 2012 @ 3:07 a.m.

Related Stories

Goodell discusses Pro Bowl, bounties and health

Posted May 22, 2012 @ 6:27 p.m.

Fantasy spin: Winslow traded to Seahawks

Posted May 22, 2012 @ 6:15 p.m.

AFC West players in the crosshairs

Posted May 22, 2012 @ 4:19 p.m.

Report: Bills extend series in Toronto through 2017

Posted May 22, 2012 @ 2:44 p.m.

Around Fantasyland: Quarterback updates

Posted May 22, 2012 @ 12:31 p.m.

NFL passes new rule changes

Posted May 22, 2012 @ 12:01 p.m.

NFC free-agent moves, by team

Posted May 22, 2012 @ 11:27 a.m.

AFC South players in the crosshairs

Posted May 22, 2012 @ 10 a.m.
Posted Feb. 21, 2012 @ 11:43 a.m. ET
By William Del Pilar

20th in a series.

There are free-agent questions with the Saints for fantasy owners at the quarterback and wide receiver position. There are straight-up fantasy questions going into the offseason with their three-headed RB attack and a high-octane offense that spreads the ball to various receivers, maddening fantasy owners. After QB Drew Brees, only RB Darren Sproles and TE Jimmy Graham were consistent performers for their owners.

Would the team let QB Drew Brees walk?

The Saints won't let Brees, the AP 2011 NFL Offensive Player of the Year, walk and while Brees can name his own price, the team could give him the franchise tag, too. The team is not going to give up a player who averaged 342.25 yards, 2.9 TDs and 0.88 interceptions in 16 games. He also had one rushing TD to give him 47 total TDs for the season. Brees, the most consistent QB in the NFL right now, will be a low-first- or high-second-round pick in most drafts. 

Is there any value outside Darren Sproles at the RB position? 

Head coach Sean Payton runs a hybrid West Coast offense tailored for a back like Sproles. He's a third-down back in a spread offense that uses his speed to the outside and soft hands to maximize his talents and play like a No. 1. His yards from scrimmage (rushing and receiving) make him a No. 1 fantasy back and elite in point-per-reception leagues (PPR). As a runner, he gained 603 yards on 87 carries with two touchdowns — only 37.7 rushing yards per game — but as a receiver he caught 86-710-7 on 112 targets. That's 12.4 touches for 82.1 yards from scrimmage with 0.6 TDs per game. He was consistent and outplayed Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas. He'll be overvalued in nonPPR leagues but with 86 receptions, he's worth a high draft pick in PPR leagues. He's also a kickoff and punt returner and in leagues that award points for return yards; his league-best 2,696 all-purpose yards make him elite.

I was way off on Ingram, falling in love with his power and ability to move piles while in an explosive offense. Always in a time-share, he was inactive for two games with a bruised heel, then a sprained toe cost him the last four games and he ended up being put on injured reserve. As a result, he produced only 122-474-5 rushing. He was ineffective as a pass receiver with 11-46-0 on 13 targets. He had surgery in early January and should be ready for the start of offseason programs. As long as Sproles remains healthy, Ingram is not an attractive fantasy option as a starter and is better as depth on your roster. Hold on to him in keeper leagues, as his role eventually should grow. 

Pierre Thomas lost touches to Ingram when he was healthy but gained value when Ingram got hurt and missed time. Thomas then dealt with Chris Ivory being active and though Thomas was effective, he was still sharing touches with two other backs. While Thomas rushed 110-562-5, he value was as a pass receiver with 50-425-1 on 59 targets, adding up to 61.7 yards from scrimmage per game. Despite being a dual-threat back, with Sproles and Ingram ahead of him his value entering the offseason is as the No. 3 back. He has limited upside barring injury, with his greatest value in larger and PPR leagues.

Ivory, active for six games, had 79-374-1 — an average of 62.3 yards — which gave him value in all formats as an injury fill-in. The bruising back took on Ingram's role but his time on the field is based on injury and he has no fantasy value going into the offseason.

What should we expect from the WR position in 2012?

Marques Colston is a free agent and the team's No. 1 wide receiver but this is a unit of complementary pieces. If Colston receives an offer he can't turn down, he won't return despite the belief he could receive the franchise tag if Brees' deal gets done early. Pro Bowl OG Carl Nicks, another franchise-tag candidate, would be more difficult to replace than Colston. Remember, Colston has dealt with serious knee injuries throughout his career and will be 29 in June with only two complete seasons in six years as a Saint. He's a No. 1 fantasy receiver but can be inconsistent. In 2011, he missed two games early, had four games with 54 yards or less and despite scoring eight TDs, he went scoreless in nine games. He did end the season with 80-1,143-8 on 107 targets. Those are quality numbers with an average of 5.7 catches for 81.6 yards and 0.6 TDs on 7.6 targets in 14 games. His offseason status depends on what the team does with Brees and Nicks but I believe he will walk. 

Robert Meachem's also a free agent and will have a lower price tag than Colston, but he has been a fantasy disappointment, partially because there aren't enough footballs to go around. He also has failed to show consistency with his elite talent. However, if Colston walks, Meachem becomes a must-sign for the Saints. He knows the offense, is only entering his fifth season, has been healthier than Colston and as a potential starter, the team can't afford to lose two of its top three WRs. Money talks but he might not see what he hopes for after catching 40-620-6 on 60 targets and making two or fewer catches in nine of the last 11 games last season. He will draw interest on the free-agent market as a second-tier vertical threat. Keeper-league owners should hold on to him in case he re-signs with the Saints.

Lance Moore, who's oft-injured and a slow healer, enters the offseason on top of the depth chart but he's not a true a No. 1 and the team knows this which is why it must re-sign Colston or Meachem. Moore caught 52-627-8 on 73 targets in 14 games and is a streaky player who should be seen as a No. 3 or flex-position fantasy receiver. He should be held in keeper leagues and moved if there's an owner gullible enough to believe Moore can be a No. 1 receiver.

Devery Henderson caught 32-503-2 on 50 targets and is only depth. Meanwhile, Adrian Arrington is going to be in a make-or-break season, entering his third year on the active squad (he has been with the team since 2008). Neither has fantasy value going into the offseason considering either Colston or Meachem should remain a Saint. If they both depart, the team would have to address the position, likely via free agency. Entering the offseason, this is the Saints' most tumultuous position.

How good can TE Jimmy Graham be?

Graham is the team's best receiver and one of the league's elite tight ends. He had 99-1,310-11 on 149 targets, an average of 6.2 catches for 81.9 yards and 0.7 TDs on 9.3 targets in 16 games. Those are No. 1 fantasy WR numbers, which he should repeat and possibly exceed if the team loses Colston or Meachem. He's going to go in the early rounds, regardless of format.

Follow William Del Pilar on Twitter

Comments ()

Poll

In the third matchup of PFW's video series "Best Offense Battle," which offense do you believe is better?


ABOUT TRUST ONLINE