Quarterback busts tend to happen when an elite passer goes down with an injury. Think Tom Brady a few years ago. In this day and age of communications, we know who has to look over their shoulder and what could happen, and we naturally stay away from those players. With that in mind, I bring you a few quarterbacks to consider steering clear of on draft day before I dig into the really heavy and fun sleeper and bust positions — running backs and wide receivers — which will follow in the days to come.
David Garrard, Jaguars
Position ADP: 21
Overall ADP: 177 (Round 16 in a 12-team league)
The Jaguars drafted Blaine Gabbert for a reason. He's the quarterback of the future. While a rookie, early in camp, the Jaguars felt Gabbert was good enough to compete for the starting job. He didn't impress, but neither did Garrard.
The Jaguars can be a strange team, playing up to their potential and making noise, but I'm not sold on Garrard because he's so inconsistent with his decision-making process. For fantasy purposes, the team is built around the rushing attack, and Garrard has unproven receivers. I wonder how this team will make the postseason, which is a must for head coach Jack Del Rio to keep his job. Garrard is not injury-prone, but he has done his share playing hurt, and he did miss two games last season.
I believe the Jaguars will fall out of postseason contention at some point in 2011, and at that moment they will begin to see what they have in Gabbert. Garrard's going late in drafts, and I would advise you to pass on him.
Tarvaris Jackson, Seahawks
Position ADP: 22
Overall ADP: 187 (Round 15 in a 12-team league)
Jackson went to the Seahawks as the chosen starter, knowing offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell's playbook from their time in Minnesota together. Even with that edge, Jackson has struggled in camp. While he's still listed as the starter, he's creating a quarterback battle with his play. Luckily for him, Charlie Whitehurst has not lit the world on fire but has been efficient.
Even if Jackson wins the starting job, he will be looking over his shoulder entering the season. The staff better have patience if they stick with him. You don't want a quarterback on your fantasy roster if you're not sure if he's even going to be to start. It's that simple. Most owners agree, as he's going late in drafts.
Matt Hasselbeck, Titans
Position ADP: 31
Overall ADP: 210 (Round 18 in a 12-team league)
Hasselbeck's health is the issue here. He's been injury-prone of late, and I believe he's in a much more physical conference and division. A lack of tradition aside, the Colts and Jaguars always play physical, tough and hard against the Titans. That's not to mention the fact the Titans face the Ravens and Steelers this season. He may not make it through a full 16-game season.
This team is in rebuilding mode with a new head coach and quarterback of the future — first-round rookie Jake Locker, who has experience in a pro-style offense. I can easily envision the team pulling Hasselbeck for Locker at some point. That is, if an injury doesn't take Hasselbeck off the field first. Hasselbeck's in a no-win situation. Pass on him like most others have!