This Monday-night game pits two extremely similar teams against one another. The Patriots and Dolphins are both 2-1, both having beaten the Bills and lost to the Jets. Both teams have struggled rushing the passer this season (Patriots have five sacks, Dolphins six). Both teams have inexperienced secondaries.
Despite those similarities, the Dolphins have a significant advantage on the defensive side of the ball. While they gave up 31 points to the Jets in Week Three, they shut down the Bills and Vikings in their first two games. The Patriots' defense gave up 30 points to the Bills and through three games is statistically the worst defense in the Bill Belichick era. The Patriots can counter that with an explosive offense, but Miami's offense came alive in Week Three when Chad Henne threw for 363 yards, showing the potential of the Henne-Brandon Marshall connection.
This game should be high-scoring, and the team that can successfully apply pressure on the quarterback will come out on top. Dolphins LBs Cameron Wake and Karlos Dansby could be the difference in slowing down the Patriots.
Prediction: Dolphins 33, Patriots 30