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TE patience will pay off in 2010

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Recent posts by Michael Blunda

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Posted Aug. 09, 2010 @ 12:05 p.m. ET
By Michael Blunda

This is the 33rd in a series of opinionated fantasy football columns that will be posted daily in July and August, providing fantasy owners with some insights to consider as they prepare for their drafts. You can get an in-depth preview of the upcoming fantasy football season with the purchase of the Yahoo! Sports / Pro Football Weekly Fantasy Football Guide 2010, available now in newsstands and bookstores, or online at PFWstore.com.

It happens every year in just about every fantasy draft. It pops up out of nowhere, lasts longer than expected and leaves a multitude of owners in its wake. If you let it, it will suck you in, spit you out and leave you with a feeling of confusion and bewilderment. It's none other than the TE run.

Every experienced fantasy manager knows exactly what I'm talking about. About the fourth round or so, somebody will pluck the first tight end off the board, causing other owners to panic and quickly take a tight end with their next pick in order to secure one of the top players at the position. What usually happens, though, is that owners will later look back and realize they overdrafted their tight end during that run, possibly messing up the entire remainder of their draft.

Getting caught up in any position run is usually a bad idea, but it can be even more detrimental when it comes to tight ends, which, outside of the top few, rarely produce numbers comparable to top-flight wide receivers. It's simply not a spot that is going to contribute a whole lot to your fantasy score on a weekly basis, meaning it's best to avoid the early run and wait until later in the draft to select your starting TE, especially in 2010.

This season, more than any in recent memory, there is a glut of tight ends with the potential to be impact fantasy producers. While it's always nice to have a dependable option like Dallas Clark or Antonio Gates on your roster, passing on them for added quality at running back or wideout could be very beneficial this season. Given the position's depth, being patient in your search for a tight end could still net you a solid talent.

If you don't want to wait too long, the Texans' Owen Daniels, the Buccaneers' Kellen Winslow and the Vikings' Visanthe Shiancoe all should be on the board in Rounds 8-9. Daniels was on pace for a monster season in 2009 before tearing his ACL, and he's expected to be ready for the start of the season. Winslow is the most reliable target on the Bucs' roster and should see a ton of passes from inexperienced QB Josh Freeman. And Shiancoe caught a whopping 11 TDs last season and will be one of Brett Favre's go-to guys in the red zone.

If you hold out a round or two longer, you'll be left with nice veteran choices like the Redskins' Chris Cooley and Pittsburgh's Heath Miller. Cooley was limited to just seven games in '09 because of a broken leg, but he's a two-time Pro Bowler who should quickly become a favorite of Donovan McNabb's. Miller, meanwhile, is coming off a career year in which he had 76-789-6, and he could play an even more prominent role in the offense with WR Santonio Holmes gone.

Keep waiting another round and you will likely be presented with young, high-upside options such as the Raiders' Zach Miller, Seattle's John Carlson and the Jets' Dustin Keller. Miller was Oakland's top pass catcher last season with 66-805-3, and the big-play threat could do even better with an upgraded QB in Jason Campbell. Carlson has 12 TD grabs in his first two seasons, and the Seahawks are predicting that he'll really break out in '09 in their new offensive system. Similarly, Keller has been one of the Jets' most hyped players this offseason — the premier athlete is expected to be deployed on a lot more routes in '10.

By this point, you probably should have at least one tight end on your roster, but if you haven't taken one — or if you want to play it safe and draft a backup — you're in luck. A host of gambles with definite potential should be available in the final couple rounds, like Chicago's Greg Olsen, the Giants' Kevin Boss, Washington's Fred Davis, the Lions' Tony Scheffler and Bengals rookie Jermaine Gresham, to name a few. Any of them could be surprising contributors given the right circumstances and are worth a roll of the dice in deeper formats.

So with an abundance of quality at the position, this is the year to ignore the dreaded tight end run, sit back and snag your starter in the mid-to-late rounds. In the end, when you have a well-balanced roster and didn't reach for any of your players, you'll be glad you did.

 

For authoritative coverage and analysis of NFL news, free agency and fantasy football, visit ProFootballWeekly.com.

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