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Mock draft: Defensive tackles dominate

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    Oklahoma DT Gerald McCoy

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Recent posts by Nolan Nawrocki

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Posted Jan. 30, 2010 @ 4:47 p.m.
By Nolan Nawrocki

The strength at the top of this year's draft is very clearly at defensive tackle in a draft that is expected to mark the first time that two defensive tackles are selected first and second overall. The $64 million question is: Who will be the first defender drafted?

Underclassmen are expected to dominate the first round as usual, with PFW projecting 18 underclassmen to be drafted in the first round in all, including 10 of the top 15.

With needs not clearly defined prior to free agency, PFW placed a higher premium on matching the value of talent to the approximate range. As new information is gleaned from the college all-star season to the NFL Scouting Combine to pro-day workouts and extensive team interviews, player grades inevitably will change and could have a significant effect on where players eventually are drafted in April.

Editor's note: Underclassmen are denoted by the pound sign (#).

 

FIRST ROUND

1. St. Louis Rams
DT Gerald McCoy, Oklahoma#

Despite Ndamukong Suh's sensational late momentum surge when he finished fourth in Heisman Trophy voting, McCoy is the safest pick in the draft. He fits Steve ­Spagnuolo's defense better than Suh, is a better pass rusher and will make the more immediate impact.

2. Detroit Lions
DT Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska

Having worked with Albert Haynesworth in Tennessee, Jim Schwartz knows what a dominating defensive tackle can do for a defense. Suh can become a force inside.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DE Jason Pierre-Paul, South Florida#

After trading away the late Gaines Adams during the season, GM Mark Dominik needs to upgrade a pass rush that ranked near the bottom of the league, and Pierre-Paul has unique rush ability.

4. Washington Redskins
QB Sam Bradford, Oklahoma#

Mike Shanahan loves quarterbacks, but he could choose to upgrade the offensive line and give Jason Campbell a chance to learn his offense. However, if he wants to build a new foundation, a more quick-rhythm passer is needed.

5. Kansas City Chiefs
OLT Bryan Bulaga, Iowa#

GM Scott Pioli needs to protect the investment he made in Matt Cassel and provide more time in the pocket for him to deliver. Pioli will have greater respect for a lineman well schooled by Kirk Ferentz, whom Pioli worked with in Cleveland.

6. Seattle Seahawks
OLT Russell Okung, Oklahoma State

The first order of business for new GM John Schneider will be finding replacements for Walter Jones and Matt Hasselbeck, and Okung could be tabbed earlier than his ­talent warrants to replace Jones.

7. Cleveland Browns
WR Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State#

Eric Mangini strongly considered selecting Michael Crabtree, and the Browns are now even more devoid of playmakers after shipping Braylon Edwards to the Jets. Bryant is in a class of his own as a playmaker, and new football czar Mike Holmgren has shown he will roll the dice on immense talent, as he did with Koren Robinson in Seattle.

8. Oakland Raiders
OLT Trent Williams, Oklahoma

Al Davis gave JaMarcus Russell a runner and receiver after mistakenly selecting the lazy quarterback with the first overall pick in 2007. The last effort to resurrect a sagging investment is a franchise left tackle who can give Russell more clearly needed time in the pocket to make reads.

9. Buffalo Bills
OLT Anthony Davis, Rutgers#

More important than a quarterback is a blind-side protector who can keep the Bills' quarterbacks healthy. Trading Jason Peters last offseason proved to be costly.

10. Denver Broncos* (from Chicago)
FS Eric Berry, Tennessee#

Tough, instinctive and hard-hitting, Berry brings emotion to the field and is the type of competitor Josh McDaniels sought in his first year on the job. Berry can pair with Brian Dawkins to give the Broncos two ­hammers in the middle.

11. Jacksonville Jaguars*
OLB Sean Weatherspoon, Missouri

In the same magical draft slot that produced Patrick Willis and DeMarcus Ware could come another potential great pro for GM Gene Smith.

12. Miami Dolphins
OLB Sergio Kindle, Texas

Kindle may not be quite as big as Bill Parcells desires his linebackers to be, but he is explosive and can make plays with his hand on the ground the same way a younger Joey Porter used to be able to do.

13. San Francisco 49ers
QB Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame#

Alex Smith made strides with a better supporting cast, but if the offense is to take ­another step, Jimmy Raye will need more efficiency at the QB position. The Irish brought the Niners good luck in 1979.

14. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver)
DE Derrick Morgan, Georgia Tech#

Patrick Kerney is on his last legs, and Lawrence Jackson and Darryl Tapp have struggled to get the job done. Morgan's energy could attract Pete Carroll's interest.

15. New York Giants
MLB Rolando McClain, Alabama#

Aging Antonio Pierce is coming off a career-threatening type of injury, and the defense slumped in his absence. McClain brings the commanding presence to step in early.

16. San Francisco 49ers* (from Carolina)
OL Mike Iupati, Idaho

Iupati has the physical ability to play guard or either tackle position, but regardless of where he lines up, he can help establish the smashmouth identity Mike Singletary seeks.

17. Tennessee Titans*
DT Jared Odrick, Penn State

The lack of inside pressure following Albert Haynesworth's departure crippled the ­Titans' defense, and Odrick has the quickness to be disruptive.

18. Pittsburgh Steelers
C Maurkice Pouncey, Florida#

The Steelers' offensive line has slowly deteriorated since Russ Grimm departed, and the need for a new anchor and the lack of quality at the center position could bring Pouncey off the board sooner than expected.

19. Atlanta Falcons*
CB Joe Haden, Florida#

The Falcons gave up too many yards against the pass, and Mike Smith could sorely use more help in the secondary.

20. Houston Texans*
RB C.J. Spiller, Clemson

Passing on Reggie Bush could turn out to bring the Texans even more blessings if they could land a player with more talent at the 20th slot.

21. Cincinnati Bengals
TE Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma

The Bengals' passing game was shut down by the Jets in the playoffs, and the addition of a playmaking pass catcher such as ­Gresham would force defenses to play more honestly and not be able to stack the box as much.

22. New England Patriots
WR Golden Tate, Notre Dame#

Losing No. 3 WR Jabar Gaffney affected the Patriots' offense more than expected, and Tate would have an accelerated learning curve, coming from Charlie Weis' offense.

23. Green Bay Packers
OLT Bruce Campbell, Maryland#

GM Ted Thompson has a penchant for physical marvels and a history of overlooking some durability concerns, as he did with Justin Harrell. Campbell fills a prime position of need and well suits the Packers' zone-blocking scheme.

24. Philadelphia Eagles
DE Carlos Dunlap, Florida#

A strong-willed coaching staff has proven it can maximize the talent of an exceptional player with some character flaws.

25. Baltimore Ravens
WR Arrelious Benn, Illinois#

The Ravens sorely need some offensive playmakers around Joe Flacco, and GM Ozzie Newsome will not be deterred by the declining production of an injured Benn in what was a struggling, stale ­Illinois offense.

26. Arizona Cardinals
FS Taylor Mays, USC

On paper, Mays looks like a top-five pick. On the field, he played like a third-rounder this past season. The Cardinals often open the net for falling big-name talent and could be in the market for a safety with Adrian Wilson getting older and Antrel Rolle's contract needing to be addressed.

27. Dallas Cowboys
FS Earl Thomas, Texas#

The inability to cover the deep middle exposed the Cowboys' defense against the Vikings in the playoffs, and Thomas' range and playmaking ability on the back half could complete the defense.

28. San Diego Chargers
OT Vladimir Ducasse, Massachusetts

The Chargers' struggles running the ball can be tied in part to an injury-prone offensive line, and Ducasse could help open more holes from the right tackle position.

29. New York Jets
WR Demaryius Thomas, Georgia Tech#

Even after acquiring Braylon Edwards, the Jets still need to give Mark Sanchez more weapons, and Thomas would provide another big target.

30. Minnesota Vikings
CB Patrick Robinson, Florida State

Robinson does not have the physicality of an aging Antoine Winfield or Cedric Griffin, but he could upgrade the Vikings' nickel package with his cover skills.

31. New Orleans Saints**
LB Sean Lee, Penn State

The Saints have been exploring upgrades at the linebacker position for years, and Lee has the intelligence defensive coordinator Gregg Williams desires and fits the tough-minded mold of LB coach Joe Vitt.

32. Indianapolis Colts**
DT Dan Williams, Tennessee

The Colts sought to go bigger inside after defensive coordinator Larry Coyer joined the staff, and Williams would give them a strong, active inside presence suitable for their new scheme.

 

* — Picks will be determined by a coin flip.

** — Super Bowl winner picks 32nd, loser 31st.

 

PFW has launched its brand-new NFL Draft Newsletter series, with the second issue now ready for mailing and a third issue focusing on underclassmen to be published in the next few weeks. Produced by PFW's player personnel department under the direction of Nolan Nawrocki, the series consists of four information-packed issues. For more info or to subscribe — click here for PDF e-pub or here for print format. You can also find details about other draft-related publications in the PFW store.

Comments (7)

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RICHARD NELSON
It figures the Bears give away the pick that could land them the safety they need. Then again Jerry Angelo has used muliple picks looking for a free safety, after he traded Chris Harris.
dude51
There is no way,,, NO WAY Eric Berry falls that far.. He will not get out of the top 6... The Seahawks will draft Berry if he lands at #6 Carroll knows the importance of a play making safety in the backfield of his defense, Berry is a PROVEN playmaker in Monte Kiffin's Defensive scheme and NO WAY Carroll passes on Berry when he's a Kiffin guy NO WAY,,,,.... With the addition of Alex Gibbs (the best pick of Carroll's staff..IMO..) Gibbs has a history of turning average O-linemen into good O-linemen I think Gibbs looks at the Offensive linemen the Seahawks have and sees the talent we do have and tells Carroll "We don't need to take a O-linemen in the 1st RD...... Brandon Frye looked good "Real Good" the four games he played in until he got a flook injury that took him out of action for the rest of the year, I believe Alex Gibbs sees that Talent and goes with Brandon Frye as the starter.......
sean83
You are saying that Adrian Wilson is aging, but he is 6 years younger than Brian Dawkins. That makes no sense. Pierce is been in the league five years less than Ray Lewis. Pierce is younger than Urlacher, and you are going to tell me that Urlacher can not play anymore. I agree that injuries have plagued Pierce, but he plays linebacker in the NFL, what do you expect. NFL teams get rid of players before they should, while baseball hangs on too long.
rg
Nolan- I respect your judgement 99% of the time. However... In this era of wide open passing to think that the draft's best CB will get to #19 is suspect. To think that the draft's best CB will get past the Steelers is really a stretch.
indycolts4289
I love this website... none of the garbage ESPN has sometimes nor the terrible mock drafts of NFL.com Anyway... I have a few problems with this: 1. I have no problem with your reasoning for this pick but there is no one in their right mind who actually thinks McCoy is better than Suh. I think the Rams might take McCoy anyway just because they took Carriker from Nebraska a few years ago and sometimes weird nuances like that play in to decisions. That being said, Jim Schwartz is probably going to go buy a lottery ticket, thinking he's the luckiest man in the world. 3. I, again, have no problem with the reasoning but at this point in the offseason, this pick is HUGE reach. I could see Tampa trading down and making the selection around 10 4. Bradford is good but not the right pick for Washington. The OL is awful and old as dirt. Plus, Jason Campbell had a decent year for losing his best receiver (Cooley) and having a 4th stringer at RB 6. Love Okung here but I think he might be gone to the Redskins. Could see them trade up with Tampa to make sure they get this guy. Walter Jones is done 8. Key to projecting Al Davis' pick: combine stats. It's gonna be either the fastest guy or the strongest. No talent necessary for Mr. Davis to hand you $30 mil 10. I agree with dude51... not sure on Berry falling this low. It is possible if we see the run of OT that you project but it would be surprising. Could definitely see a team trading up in to the 5-9 range to make sure they get him. Definitely a good fit on the Broncos, though 11. No way the Jaguars take a LB. They've got 3 studs that might not be well known but they definitely get the job done. Plus this team desperately needs a pass rush after the failed picks of Harvey and Groves. Could see them taking Selvie, Morgan, or even Kindle as they lean more towards a 3-4 that they introduced this year. 12. Think Miami will go ILB not OLB 13. Can't see the Niners taking another QB early, especially Bradford or Clausen. Both guys have flags and Alex Smith shows some good signs. Maybe a later round pick (Nate Davis isn't gonna cut it) 18. + 19. I agree with rg. Can't see the Steelers passing up the number one corner if he manages to drop this far. Personally, I can't see a guy with Haden's talent getting out of the top 15 and that's a stretch. The only way it happens is if teams get enamored with all of the linemen. The Steelers do need OL and the Falcons would have the steal of the draft. continued....
indycolts4289
I love this website... none of the garbage ESPN has sometimes nor the terrible mock drafts of NFL.com Anyway... I have a few problems with this: 1. I have no problem with your reasoning for this pick but there is no one in their right mind who actually thinks McCoy is better than Suh. I think the Rams might take McCoy anyway just because they took Carriker from Nebraska a few years ago and sometimes weird nuances like that play in to decisions. That being said, Jim Schwartz is probably going to go buy a lottery ticket, thinking he's the luckiest man in the world. 3. I, again, have no problem with the reasoning but at this point in the offseason, this pick is HUGE reach. I could see Tampa trading down and making the selection around 10 4. Bradford is good but not the right pick for Washington. The OL is awful and old as dirt. Plus, Jason Campbell had a decent year for losing his best receiver (Cooley) and having a 4th stringer at RB 6. Love Okung here but I think he might be gone to the Redskins. Could see them trade up with Tampa to make sure they get this guy. Walter Jones is done 8. Key to projecting Al Davis' pick: combine stats. It's gonna be either the fastest guy or the strongest. No talent necessary for Mr. Davis to hand you $30 mil 10. I agree with dude51... not sure on Berry falling this low. It is possible if we see the run of OT that you project but it would be surprising. Could definitely see a team trading up in to the 5-9 range to make sure they get him. Definitely a good fit on the Broncos, though 11. No way the Jaguars take a LB. They've got 3 studs that might not be well known but they definitely get the job done. Plus this team desperately needs a pass rush after the failed picks of Harvey and Groves. Could see them taking Selvie, Morgan, or even Kindle as they lean more towards a 3-4 that they introduced this year. 12. Think Miami will go ILB not OLB 13. Can't see the Niners taking another QB early, especially Bradford or Clausen. Both guys have flags and Alex Smith shows some good signs. Maybe a later round pick (Nate Davis isn't gonna cut it) 18. + 19. I agree with rg. Can't see the Steelers passing up the number one corner if he manages to drop this far. Personally, I can't see a guy with Haden's talent getting out of the top 15 and that's a stretch. The only way it happens is if teams get enamored with all of the linemen. The Steelers do need OL and the Falcons would have the steal of the draft. continued...
indycolts4289
my bad... posted that last part twice... here's my continuation... went a little overboard, I know 26. Absolutely HATE the Taylor Mays pick. Antrel Rolle is clearly a problem at FS (and doesn't deserve another high priced contract) and Mays is definitely not the answer. The guy is more a SS/OLB. All he cares about is knocking someone out. Fans will learn to hate this kid if he continually gets burned the way he did in college. Earl Thomas is a much better pick to be a playmaking FS and would make a great tandem with Adrian Wilson (who has plenty left in the tank - most underrated defensive player in the game along with Darnell Dockett) 29. Little skeptical on Demaryius Thomas. Seemed to benefit way too much from his size/speed combined with one of the top rushing games in the nation. Almost always single covered and his 25 ypc is bloated from only running deep routes off of play action. He definitely has potential with his athleticism but is really raw and the hands could use some work 32. As a Colts fan, I don't really like this pick. They got good play from the nobody DTs this year and I don't think Polian is gonna want to admit that Moala wasn't a good second round pick this soon (maybe next year). I think they could go OL if someone falls to them. I could also see them trading out to try and find an OL at a better value. LT is a huge issue with Charlie Johnson only a stopgap (would probably be better off replacing Ryan Diem in a couple years - if they can keep him around). LB is a need as always but they never go high with that. Also DE would probably be high on the priority list after Freeney's injury hurt them so much in the Super Bowl. All in all a pretty good mock for this early in the offseason. The picks I didn't comment on I generally agreed with or didn't see enough of a problem with.

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