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Fitz's Five

Sizzle, then fizzle

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    Ravens QB Joe Flacco

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Recent posts by Pat Fitzmaurice

Week 17 player rankings

Posted Dec. 29, 2009 @ 10:28 p.m.

Week 17 player rankings

Posted Dec. 29, 2009 @ 10:28 p.m.

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Posted Dec. 30, 2009 @ 7:11 p.m.

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Posted Dec. 29, 2009 @ 9:46 p.m.

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By Pat Fitzmaurice

These players teased their fantasy owners by getting off to hot starts, but they haven't offered much help in recent weeks.

1. Joe Flacco — It appeared that Flacco was going to make a quantum leap in his second pro season, but the month of November has not been kind to him. Flacco was terrific over his first six games, throwing multiple TD passes in four of those games and rolling up more than 300 passing yards in three of them. He had 11 TD passes through Week Six vs. five interceptions. But in his last four games, Flacco has thrown only one TD pass (with three interceptions), and only once has he thrown for more than 200 yards. The drop-off can't be blamed on the schedule. The Ravens have played the Bengals and Browns twice, once each in November, once each before November. The other two teams on the Ravens' schedule during Flacco's four-game slump were the Broncos and Colts. The Broncos had already begun what has become a five-game losing streak, and the Colts' defensive backfield was full of backups playing for injured starters. Although Flacco hasn't been himself this month, there are other factors at work. The big one: fewer passing attempts. Flacco averaged 37.5 passing attempts over Baltimore's first six games, but he's only averaged 27.5 attempts over the last four. That's directly related to the kinds of games the Ravens have been playing. Over the first six weeks, the Ravens and their opponents combined for 48 or more points in four games, and in three of those games the total was over 56. But lately, the Ravens have been playing low-scoring games, with each of their last four totaling 37 points or fewer.

2. Steve Smith — Talk of Smith blossoming into a superstar has been suspended. He's still been reasonably productive, but he hasn't been able to maintain his scorching early-season pace. Smith had 34 catches and four TD receptions in his first four games and was averaging 102.8 receiving yards per game during that run. He's had only one TD catch in his last six games, and his 79-yard performance against the Falcons last week marked the first time since Week Five that he'd had at least 70 receiving yards. The "real" Steve Smith probably falls somewhere in between the torrid start and the tepid recent performance. He's more of a yardage guy than a TD guy, with teammates Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks being the bigger scoring threats. In fact, the emergence of Nicks coincides with Smith's falloff. Nicks had only three catches during Smith's impressive four-game run, but Nicks has caught 25 passes in the six games since. Smith has 31 receptions in the Giants' last six games, and Manningham has 22 (with one game missed due to injury), so there's true balance among the Giants' top three receivers. Expect steady but unspectacular production from Smith the rest of the way.

3. Jason Witten — He was a consensus top-four tight end heading into this year's fantasy drafts, and in some leagues Witten was the first tight end to come off the board. But Witten's numbers pale to those of his highly regarded peers: Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez. Witten has actually caught more passes (54) than Gates and Gonzalez (52 each), but his yardage totals are comparatively anemic. Clark and Gates both have more than 700 receiving yards, and Gonzalez has 583. Witten has 481 receiving yards and is averaging 8.9 yards per catch, while the other three tight ends are all averaging at least 11.2 yards per catch. Witten has only scored once, while Clark, Gates and Gonzalez have combined for 11 TDs. The season began well enough for Witten. He had 19 catches in the Cowboys' first three games, he had more than 70 receiving yards in two of those games, and in the one game where he didn't have more than 70 receiving yards, he scored a TD. But Witten hasn't scored since, and he's been held under 50 receiving yards in six of his last seven games. So, what happened to the tight end who used to make Terrell Owens jealous? One theory is that defenses are paying more attention to Witten. Maybe. But it also seems as if Witten rarely makes much yardage after the catch these days, and that's on Cowboys offensive coordinator Jason Garrett. The Cowboys used to do a good job of getting Witten the ball in stride, but now it seems as if most of his catches come when he's settled into a zone and has turned back to face QB Tony Romo. That's not exactly a recipe for big plays.

4. Willis McGahee — Most fantasy owners with at least a little bit of common sense knew that McGahee's fast start was a fluke. He scored seven TDs in his first four games (five TD runs, two TD catches) despite averaging 11 touches per game over that span. There was no way McGahee was going to keep up a pace of one score for every 6.3 touches. Especially not when Ray Rice had 21 more touches than McGahee over that period (yet had only scored once). Since then, McGahee has gone scoreless. He's had only 32 touches in Baltimore's last six games, while Rice has averaged 23.2 touches per game during that span and has averaged a TD per game. With Rice now established as the Ravens' main man, McGahee's only fantasy value is as a handcuff for Rice owners.

5. Nick Folk — Fantasy owners know that kicker scoring can be wildly unpredictable. Individual kicker performance often matters less than team performance. Better to have a bad kicker on a good team than vice versa. But for Folk this season, both individual and team performance have factored into his in-season reversal of fortune. Dallas averaged 28.1 points a game over its first seven games, and Folk averaged a robust 8.1 points a game over that span. But the Cowboys have scored a combined 34 points in their last three games (and just 14 points in their last two). Folk has scored just 10 points in those three games, for a per-game average of 3.3. It also doesn't help that Folk has slumped lately. He hit 11-of-13 FG attempts in his first six games, but he's only connected on 3-of-6 in his last four games. Even if the Cowboys are able to snap out of their offensive tailspin, Folk will have to get his form back if he's going to regain the sort of fantasy value he had early in the season.

 

In addition to "Fitz's Five," each week during the season Pat Fitzmaurice will post his frequently updated player rankings based on the week's matchups, "Ten most intriguing players" of the week, and "The 60-second rant" — all in the Fantasy section.


PFW has launched its brand-new NFL Draft Newsletter series, with the second issue being released later this month. Produced by PFW's player personnel department under the direction of Nolan Nawrocki, the series consists of four information-packed issues. For more info or to subscribe — click here for PDF e-pub or here for print format.

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UncleWalty
I don't think you can bang on Flacco too hard. But for a few missed field goals they'd be leading their division.
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