The bye weeks are over. The weather hasn't quite turned terrible just yet. It's not too early to start thinking about the playoffs, but it's a little premature to be worrying about tiebreaking scenarios.  

Welcome to Week 11 of the NFL season. Seven full regular-season cards left. Let's have some fun, shall we?

On to the picks:

Miami (+3) at Carolina

Favorites have dominated in late-season Thursday games in recent seasons, posting a robust 18-5-1 mark against the spread. Home teams have had a slight edge in this span, covering 13 times against 10 losses with one push.

That's one reason to like the Panthers. Another reason: the Dolphins have surrendered more than 100 yards rushing in each of their last five games, and the Panthers are averaging 212.3 yards on the ground in November.

The Dolphins have had a potent running game of their own, but the loss of RB Ronnie Brown to a season-ending injury is a tremendous blow to Miami. With the Panthers on a roll, and with the Dolphins having four days to contemplate how to replace their best offensive player. Carolina is the play.

Wilkening's pick: Carolina

Atlanta at N.Y. Giants (O/U 46)

The Under would have appealed to me even if Falcons RB Michael Turner weren't expected to miss this game with a high ankle sprain. QB Matt Ryan's accuracy has been a concern for weeks, and I'm not going to bank on him fixing the problem at Giants Stadium in late November against a defense coming off a bye. (Also, there's a slight chance of rain in the forecast.)

I expect the Giants to emphasize their running game, and I'm seeing a few clock-chewing scoring drives in their future. They should prevail vs. the Falcons, but can they cover? I don't have a strong feeling, but I will be leaning toward the Under, particularly since the total is greater than 45 points. Even a 24-21 outcome would bring home the "W."

Wilkening's pick: Under 46

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Indianapolis (-1, O/U 44) at Baltimore

I might have played against Indy after the stirring comeback win vs. New England last week, but I have to weigh my fears of the Colts being over-the-top after such a big effort against my trepidation of asking the Ravens to do something they haven't done since Elvis Grbac was quarterback: that is, beat Peyton Manning, for the Colts have won and covered the past five meetings between the teams.

The Ravens have had legitimate excuses in their last two defeats against Indianapolis. In 2007, the Colts blew them out just six days after they were put through the wringer in a heartbreaking Monday-night defeat to New England. (Remember Bart Scott throwing the penalty flag?) Also, Baltimore's secondary was in shambles. Last season, the Colts rolled to another blowout win vs. Baltimore, but that was Joe Flacco's fifth career start; you couldn't really expect the Ravens to trade punches with Indy on that day, could you?

It's a different story this season: the Ravens' offense can keep Baltimore in this game. I'm calling Baltimore's struggles shrugging off Cleveland on Monday night an aberration and expecting a much, much better performance Sunday. But I'm also expecting Manning to do what he usually does vs. the Ravens, who are again vulnerable vs. the pass. The Ravens are desperate, but I don't think they can pull this one out. No. 18 has their number.

Wilkening's pick: Indianapolis and Over 44

Last week: 2-2
Season to date: 18-21-1