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Week 11 trends and tips

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Posted Nov. 18, 2009 @ 12:38 p.m.
By Art Edelstein

Miami at Carolina
The Dolphins are 4-5 vs. the spread, including 2-2 on the road. ... Miami has failed to cover its last eight games vs. NFC opponents and is 0-4-1 against the number in its previous five road contests vs. NFC squads. ... The Dolphins have failed to cover their last four times prior to having played the Bills but have covered three of their last four games as a dog. ... Of Miami's last six games, five have gone over the total. ... The Panthers are 4-5 against the spread, including 1-3 at home. ... Carolina has covered four of its last five contests and is 3-0-1 vs. the number in its previous four games following a straight-up win as a dog. ... The Panthers are 2-8-1 vs. the spread in their last 11 night contests. In addition, they have covered four of their last five times while playing the second of consecutive home contests.

Indianapolis at Baltimore
The Colts are 5-4 against the number, including 4-0 on the road. ... Indy has failed to cover its last three games but has covered seven of its previous eight regular-season road contests. ... The Colts have covered eight of their last nine, and 11 of their previous 13, games vs. AFC North teams and have covered their last four contests after allowing their previous opponent to score 21 or more points. ... Indy has covered its last four times following a night game. ... The Ravens are 6-3 against the spread, including 3-1 at home. ... Baltimore has covered 10 of its last 13 home contests and has covered 21 of its previous 29 games overall, including playoffs. ... The Ravens have covered their last three contests vs. AFC South foes. ... Baltimore has failed to cover its last five games following a night contest, and eight of its previous 12 home games have stayed under the total.

Washington at Dallas
The Redskins are 3-6 vs. the number, including 2-2 on the road. ... Washington has covered six of its last seven road games vs. NFC East rivals but is 1-4-1 vs. the spread in its previous six games on artificial turf. ... The Redskins are 0-4-1 against the number in their last five games following a cover and 1-4-1 against the spread in their previous six games before having played the Eagles. ... Washington is 5-0-1 vs. the number in its last six games following a double-digit win, and its last three contests have gone over the total. ... The Cowboys are 5-4 vs. the spread, including 3-1 at home. ... Dallas has covered its last three home games and has covered its last four times as a favorite of more than seven points. ... The Cowboys have covered one of their last six, and two of their previous nine, home games vs. NFC East rivals and have failed to cover their previous four times after having scored 10 points or fewer in their previous outing. ... Dallas has covered one of the last four meetings at home.

Cleveland at Detroit
The Browns are 2-7 against the number, including 1-4 on the road. ... Cleveland has covered one of its last eight, and two of its previous 12, road games. In addition, it has failed to cover its last five games vs. NFC North opponents. ... The Browns have covered three of their last four contests on artificial turf and have covered three of their last four times after having played the Ravens. ... Cleveland has covered one of its last 11 games prior to having played the Bengals. ... The Lions are 2-6-1 against the spread, including 2-2 at home. ... Detroit is 0-3-1 vs. the number in its last four games and has covered three of its previous 11 times as a favorite. ... The Lions have covered 10 of their last 33 games (10-22-1) and have covered two of their last eight times before hosting the Packers. ... Detroit has covered its last four, and seven of its previous nine, contests after having played the Vikings and has covered four of its last five games vs. AFC North foes. In addition, three of its previous four games have stayed under the total.

San Francisco at Green Bay
The 49ers are 6-2-1 vs. the spread, including 3-0-1 on the road. ... San Francisco is 11-4-2 against the number in its last 17 games, including 5-1-1 against the spread in its previous seven road contests. ... The 49ers are 6-0-1 vs. the number in their last seven games as a dog and have covered three of their last four times following a night contest. ... San Francisco has covered its last three games vs. NFC North teams and has covered three of its last four road contests vs. NFC North opponents. ... The Packers are 5-4 vs. the spread, including 3-2 at home. ... Green Bay has covered its last seven games vs. NFC West teams, including playoffs. In addition, it has covered its previous eight times following a straight-up win as a dog. ... The Packers are 1-4-2 against the number their last seven times while playing the second of consecutive home games.

Buffalo at Jacksonville
The Bills are 4-5 against the spread, including 3-2 on the road. ... Buffalo has covered eight of its last 12 times while playing the second of consecutive road games but has covered three of its previous 12 times following a non-cover on the road. ... The Bills have covered one of their last five games vs. AFC South teams and have failed to cover their previous three games this season following a double-digit loss. ... The Jaguars are 4-5 vs. the number, including 1-3 at home. ... Jacksonville has covered one of its last 12 times as a favorite, including playoffs. In addition, it has covered one of its previous six home contests when sandwiched between two road games. ... The Jaguars have covered one of their last five times following a straight-up win as a dog but have covered three of their previous four games vs. AFC East teams, including playoffs. In addition, six of their last eight games have gone over the total, and their previous five, and 12 of their last 16, home contests have gone over the total.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City
The Steelers are 4-5 vs. the spread, including 1-3 on the road. ... Pittsburgh has covered its last three games vs. AFC West opponents and has covered 11 of its last 12 contests prior to a game in Baltimore. ... The Steelers' last three games have stayed under the total, but the previous four meetings with Kansas City have gone over the total ... The Chiefs are 4-5 against the number, including 1-3 at home. ... Kansas City has covered four of its last five games and has covered its previous three contests prior to having played the Chargers. ... The Chiefs have covered two of their last eight times following consecutive covers, including playoffs. ... Kansas City is 2-6-1 against the spread in its previous nine home contests when sandwiched between two road games. In addition, it has covered one of its last seven times vs. AFC North teams.

Seattle at Minnesota
The Seahawks are 3-6 vs. the number, including 0-4 on the road. ... Seattle has failed to cover its last five road games and has failed to cover its last six times as a dog. ... The Seahawks have failed to cover their last three times following a game on grass and are 0-3-2 vs. the spread in their previous five games after having played the Cardinals. ... Seattle has covered four of its last five times after having allowed its previous foe to score 30 points or more. ... The Vikings are 5-3-1 against the number, including 1-2-1 at home. ... Minnesota has failed to cover four of its previous five home contests vs. NFC West squads. ... The Vikings have failed to cover their last seven (0-6-1), and 10 of their previous 11 (1-9-1), times as a favorite of more than 10 points. In addition, they are 1-5-1 against the spread in their last seven home games, including playoffs, and 4-10-1 vs. the number in their previous 15 home contests, including playoffs.

 

 


 

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Atlanta at N.Y. Giants
The Falcons are 6-3 vs. the spread, including 2-3 on the road. ... Atlanta has covered eight of its previous nine regular-season games following a non-cover and has covered seven of its last eight times while playing the second of consecutive road contests. ... The Falcons have covered eight of their previous nine times following a game on grass and have covered three of their last four contests following a game in Carolina. ... Atlanta has covered its previous four times following a straight-up loss as a favorite. ... The Giants are 4-5 against the number, including 2-3 at home. ... New York has failed to cover its last four games and has failed to cover its previous four times following a straight-up loss as a favorite. ... The Giants have failed to cover their last four times prior to a night game.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay
The Saints are 6-3 against the spread, including 3-1 on the road. ... New Orleans has failed to cover its last three games and has covered two of its previous 10 times as a favorite of more than seven points. ... The Saints have failed to cover their last three contests vs. NFC South rivals but have covered six of their last nine road contests vs. NFC South teams. ... New Orleans has covered four of its previous five times prior to a night game. ... The Buccaneers are 3-6 vs. the number, including 1-3 on the road. ... Tampa Bay has covered consecutive games but has covered one of its last seven times before having played the Falcons. ... The Buccaneers have failed to cover their last three contests prior to consecutive road games and have failed to cover their last four times following a loss by seven points or fewer. ... Of Tampa Bay's last 11 games, eight have gone over the total.

Arizona at St. Louis
The Cardinals are 6-3 vs. the spread, including 4-0 on the road. ... Arizona has covered five of its last six games and has covered its previous three times as a road favorite. ... The Cardinals have covered their last four road games vs. NFC West rivals and have covered eight of their previous 10 times vs. NFC West squads overall. ... The Cardinals have covered four of their last five games on artificial turf and have covered their previous six contests away from home, including playoffs. ... Arizona's last three games have gone over the total. ... The Rams are 4-5 against the number, including 1-3 at home. ... St. Louis has covered one of its last 10 times vs. NFC West rivals and has covered one of its previous five times before having played the Seahawks. ... The Rams have covered four of their last five times after having played the Saints and have covered three of their previous four times following a cover at home.

San Diego at Denver
The Chargers are 4-5 against the spread, including 2-2 on the road. ... San Diego has covered four of its last five games, including consecutive road contests. ... The Chargers have covered one of their previous four games vs. AFC West rivals but have covered three of their previous four road contests when sandwiched between two home games. ... Five of the last six meetings between these teams have gone over the total. ... The Broncos are 6-3 vs. the number, including 3-1 at home. ... Denver has failed to cover its last three games and has covered two of its previous 12 times following a non-cover. ... The Broncos have covered one of their last nine times following consecutive non-covers and have covered one of their previous six games following a double-digit loss. ... All four of Denver's home games have stayed under the total.

N.Y. Jets at New England
The Jets are 4-5 vs. the spread, including 2-2 on the road. ... New York has covered one of its last six games and has covered one of its previous six contests vs. AFC East rivals. ... The Jets have failed to cover their last seven times after having surrendered 17 points or more in their previous outing but are 9-2-1 against the number in their last 12 regular-season games at New England. ... Four of New York's last five games have gone over the total, but three of the previous four meetings between these teams have stayed under the total. ... The Patriots are 5-4 against the spread, including 3-2 at home. ... New England has failed to cover its previous three games this season vs. AFC East rivals and has covered one of its last seven home contests vs. AFC East opponents. ... The Patriots have covered five of their last six regular-season games after having played the Colts and are 6-1-1 vs. the number their last eight times following a game as a dog.

Cincinnati at Oakland
The Bengals are 6-3 vs. the spread, including 3-1 on the road. ... Cincinnati has failed to cover its previous three games this season as a favorite and has covered two of its last nine times as a favorite overall. ... The Bengals have covered one of their last six contests as a road favorite and have covered one of their previous seven, and two of their last 12, times as a favorite of more than three points. ... Cincinnati has failed to cover its last eight, and 10 of its previous 11, contests after having played the Steelers but has covered five of its last six times following a game on grass. ... The Raiders are 4-5 against the number, including 2-3 at home. ... Oakland has covered two of its last seven games, including one of its last four home contests. ... The Raiders have covered one of their last seven games vs. AFC North teams and have covered one of their previous five times while playing the second of consecutive home contests. ... Oakland is 37-67-2 against the spread in its previous 106 games, including playoffs. In addition, six of its last eight games have stayed under the total, and seven of its previous 21 contests overall have gone over the total.

Philadelphia at Chicago
The Eagles are 5-4 vs. the number, including 2-2 on the road. ... Philadelphia has covered seven of its last 10 times after having surrendered 30 points or more to its previous opponent and has covered three of its previous four night games on the road. ... The Eagles have covered one of the last five meetings as a favorite and have covered two of their previous nine contests before having played the Redskins. ... Seven of Philadelphia's nine games have gone over the total. ... The Bears are 4-5 vs. the spread, including 3-1 at home. ... Chicago has covered one of its last eight times as a dog and is 0-5-1 against the number in its previous six night games. ... The Bears have covered five of their last seven times following consecutive non-covers and has covered three of the last four meetings. ... Chicago has covered its last three games after having scored 10 points or fewer in its previous outing.

Tennessee at Houston
The Titans are 4-5 against the spread, including 2-3 on the road. ... Tennessee has covered its last three games and has covered three of the four meetings with the Texans as a dog. ... The Titans have failed to cover their last three road games vs. AFC South rivals but have covered eight of their previous 10 road contests when sandwiched between two home games. In addition, six of their last eight games have gone over the total. ... The Texans are 5-3-1 vs. the number, including 1-2-1 at home. ... Houston is 3-1-1 vs. the spread in home night games and is 6-1-1 against the number in its previous eight contests vs. AFC South rivals. ... The Texans have covered four of their last five times prior to having played the Colts and are 7-2-1 against spread in their last 10 games following a contest on artificial turf.

 

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Kent Paro
Is there much difference between covering the spread as a favorite vs. covering the spread as a dog? Most articles only refer to records ATS and I've only seen records ATS as dogs/faves addressed in trends and tips. Seems to me that some teams are good favorites and some teams are good dogs......what am I missing, why isn't this an important consideration?

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