Posted Nov. 11, 2009 @ 6:06 p.m.
1. Tom Brady — The klieg lights shine brightest on the quarterbacks in the blueblood rivalry between the Patriots and Colts, and why not? Matchups between megastars have mass appeal, and this one is so juicy that the NFL has been habitually scheduling Patriots-Colts for the November sweeps period, when networks pull out all the stops to boost ratings and extract maximum cash from future advertisers. There have been moments this season when Brady hasn't quite looked himself, but there haven't been many such moments in the last few weeks. He's on a run of three consecutive 300-yard games during which he's completed 74.8 percent of his passes for 1,020 yards and 10 TDs. Project that three-week run over 16 games and you get numbers strikingly similar to what Brady produced in 2007. Not himself? Harrumph. Brady has to be drooling like a Pavlovian pooch over the thought of facing the Colts' injury-depleted secondary. Indy will be without star safety Bob Sanders, who's out for the season, and also CBs Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden. The Colts are now starting a pair of rookie corners: third-round choice Jerraud Powers and undrafted free agent Jacob Lacey. The only bad news for Brady is that Colts DE Dwight Freeney is healthy and still coming off the edge as if shot out of a cannon.
2. Ray Rice — It's absurdly early to start thinking about 2010 fantasy drafts, which are still 10 long months away, but when leagues reconvene in sweaty rec rooms and basement bars next year, Rice will be a coveted commodity and a probable top-five pick. It took awhile for Rice to become the main man in the Baltimore backfield. He carried the ball just once during the Ravens' three-game playoff run last season, and he split carries with Willis McGahee earlier this season. Now, the Ravens' ball boys are asked to wipe the cobwebs off McGahee every few quarters. Rice has averaged 21 touches over Baltimore's last five games. Taking advantage of boffo blocking by his offensive line, he's averaging 146.4 rushing-receiving yards per game over that span, and not once in his last five games has he been held to fewer than 100 combined yards. Rice has also scored four TDs in his last three games. Think the Browns are going to cool off Rice when the Ravens pay a visit to Cleveland on Monday? (Cue laugh track.)
3. Peyton Manning — Need some ice for that arm, Peyton? Manning has been running up the sort of pitch counts that Orioles starters used to log back when Earl Weaver was still managing (and don't expect to see Jim Sorgi warming up in the Colts' bullpen any time soon). Manning has thrown 98 passes over the last two weeks, and only once this season has he thrown fewer than 34 passes in a game. Thanks to a completion percentage of 70.6, Manning is on pace for 442 completions this season, which would break Drew Brees' record of 440 completions, set in 2007. The marvelous Mr. Manning is also on pace for more than 5,000 passing yards. No doubt he'll have to keep firing this weekend against the Patriots. The Colts' running game is nonexistent, and Manning will have to keep up with counterpart Tom Brady, who has the advantage of facing a tattered Indianapolis secondary populated mostly by backups.
4. Michael Turner — By now, many hard-core fantasy owners are familiar with "The Curse of 370." First noted by the clever folks at Football Outsiders, this dreaded curse often befalls running backs who carry the ball more than 370 times in a single season. History shows that these workhorses tend to be significantly less productive the following year. Turner, who had 376 carries last season, is defiantly breaking mirrors, walking under ladders and laughing at The Curse of 370. Although he hasn't carried as often as he did in 2008, he arguably has been more productive this season. With 10 TDs through the first half of the regular season, Turner is on pace to beat last year's total of 17. He's also slightly improved his yardage per carry, from 4.5 last season to 4.6. Turner was held scoreless in Week One, but he's scored at least one touchdown in every game since. This week he faces the Panthers, whom he gouged for 105 rushing yards and a TD in Week Two.
5. Mike Wallace — This guy was quite a find for the Steelers in the third round of this year's draft. In Monday night's telecast of the Steelers-Broncos game, Jon Gruden briefly compared Wallace's rookie season to that of former Steeler Louis Lipps. It was an apt comparison. Lipps, who played from the mid-'80s into the early '90s, was similar to Wallace in terms of size and speed. Lipps caught 45 passes as a rookie for 860 yards and nine TDs. Wallace is on pace for 50 catches, 874 yards and six TDs. Ben Roethlisberger is the perfect quarterback for Wallace. Big Ben doesn't mind holding on to the ball for a long time in the face of the pass rush, letting his receivers work deep down the field. It's no wonder that Wallace is averaging 17.5 yards per catch (which, by the way, is slightly below Lipps' rookie average of 19.1 yards per catch). The Steelers have a critical divisional game against the Bengals in Pittsburgh this week, and with Cincinnati ranking second in the league against the run, Wallace will play an important role as Roethlisberger tries to move the ball through the air.
6. Percy Harvin — Speaking of rookie game-breakers ... remember how a lot of people were second-guessing the Vikings for drafting Harvin in the first round despite character concerns and uncertainty about how he'd fit into a pro-style offense? Mea culpa: I was one of the skeptics. In addition to mentioning his checkered past and gimmicky college offense, I noted that the Packers' highly drafted rookie receivers had put up lousy first-year numbers during the Favre era. So much for that. Harvin has been phenomenal as a kick returner, but he's also making worthwhile contributions to the Vikings' passing game, with 369 receiving yards and three TD catches. He's a viable fantasy play this week against the 31st-ranked Lions pass defense, which has yielded 19 TDs through the air.
7. Vince Young — Plenty of good seats still left on the V.Y. bandwagon. Actually, the bandwagon is still empty; the driver is standing around outside the doors, having a smoke and looking bored. But let me try to sell a few tickets: The Titans have won both of their games since Young was given another shot as the starter, and he's been performing functionally (which, for Young, represents a dramatic improvement). Young remains the most dangerous running quarterback in the NFL, and as a passer ... um, did I mention how good he is as a runner? Fact is, Young will never offer fantasy owners much in the way of passing yardage or TD passes, and his game-to-game rushing totals will be inconsistent. He simply isn't an every-week fantasy starter. That said, there's still hope that he can be a useful fantasy backup, and he still bears watching. Maybe he can drum up interest by compiling good numbers this weekend against the Bills, who rank 25th in total defense.
8. Robert Meachem — The third-year receiver is finally starting to come on after serving a long apprenticeship. Or is he? Meachem has two TD catches over his last four games. Last week, he had a career-high five catches for 98 yards, including a 54-yard TD. Is Meachem about to become relevant to fantasy-leaguers, or was this just a brief outburst from a guy who's cultivated a reputation as a tease. With fellow WR Lance Moore ailing, and with the Saints visiting the hapless Rams this weekend, Meachem will have another good chance to prove himself.
9. Greg Olsen — The big tight end, whose production has been spotty this season, erupted for three TDs in the Bears' loss to the Cardinals last week. Olsen's fantasy owners either rejoiced at finally getting a significant return on their investment, or pulled out their hair because they'd relegated Olsen to the bench. If you're among the latter, try not to hold it against the former Miami (Fla.) star. Many of the Bears' opponents have been paying heavy defensive attention to Olsen, covering him with cornerbacks instead of linebackers or safeties. The Packers put ace CB Charles Woodson on him. The Bengals devised a scheme against Olsen that included both safeties. But with Bears WR Devin Hester continuing to prove himself as a receiver, and with WRs Johnny Knox and Earl Bennett establishing themselves as viable targets, opponents will have to loosen their vise grip on Olsen. Arizona tried to cover Olsen with Adrian Wilson, one of the better strong safeties in the league, and look what happened. It will be interesting to see how 49ers head coach Mike Singletary opts to defend Olsen on Thursday night.
10. Darren McFadden — McFadden is expected back from a knee injury this week, and it's a good time for him to roll out of the repair shop, with the Raiders hosting the Chiefs and their 28th-ranked run defense. McFadden had the best game of his rookie season against Kansas City last September, rushing for 164 yards and a TD. The dilemma for the Raiders is how much work to give him. He's just coming back from an injury, RB Justin Fargas has been performing reasonably well, and Oakland isn't exactly jockeying for playoff position. On the other hand, the Raiders still aren't clear on what sort of player McFadden is going to be for them, and with no serious playoff aspirations, getting a long look at McFadden is high on the team's to-do list for the rest of the year.
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