Posted Oct. 27, 2009 @ 2:20 p.m.
We are witnessing a season of remarkable badness in the National Football League. The league's bad teams are truly awful — and there are a lot of 'em. Even the perennially competitive Tennessee Titans have landed on skid row, creating an awkward vibe in Nashville. It's as if Weird Al Yankovic had accidentally been booked to play the Grand Ole Opry.
What does the lack of parity mean to fantasy owners? Well, lineup choices are more matchup-dependent than ever. A third-rate running back might merit a spot in your starting lineup if he's going against, say, the Browns. The lack of parity also means that the NFL's lousy teams are providing only a small handful of useful commodities to fantasy owners.
So let's do some threshing and see if there are any tasty grains amid the inedible chaff. Here are, in one man's opinion, the five worst teams in the league and each team's most valuable fantasy performer, with an analysis of each player's fantasy value going forward. We'll work our way down, from fifth-worst team to worst team. (And I'm giving the Titans a pardon because I still refuse to believe they're really this bad.)
5. Chiefs: Dwayne Bowe — Funny how Bowe spent most of the preseason in new head coach Todd Haley's doghouse, yet Bowe is one of the few pedigreed performers on a team full of mutts. Displeased with Bowe's effort, Haley kept the talented receiver out of the starting lineup in a couple of exhibition games, but Haley's principled stance wasn't so principled as to have Bowe backing up Terrence Copper in regular-season games. It would be fun to see what the acrobatic Bowe could do on a decent squad. (The Chiefs have gone 7-32 since Bowe came aboard in 2007.) Unfortunately, he's stuck with a weak supporting cast, including a quarterback, Matt Cassel, whose abilities appear to have been grossly overestimated by the teams that pursued him in the offseason. Yet Bowe had caught TD passes in four of the six games in which he's played. His situation makes him an unreliable yardage contributor, but Bowe has to be considered a weekly must-start on all but the most WR-rich fantasy teams.
4. Raiders: Zach Miller — Even when RB Darren McFadden returns from a knee injury, Miller might be the only Raider worth fantasy consideration. He's a good yardage guy who has been accumulating yardage in a hit-or-miss way this year. He's on pace to exceed the 778 receiving yards he had last season, yet he's had 17 or fewer receiving yards in three of his seven games. Miller isn't much of a TD scorer: He's scored five times in 39 career games. However, he seems to have a knack for the big-yardage score. His lone TD this season was an 86-yarder (with a nice blocking assist from WR Louis Murphy), and his only TD last season was a 63-yarder. Ultimately, Miller is a borderline starter in most fantasy leagues that require you to start a tight end. The fact that he plays with inept QB JaMarcus Russell limits Miller's upside and ensures some dry weeks, but the tight end will also have some nice games.
3. Buccaneers: Antonio Bryant — The seemingly reformed Bryant surprised everyone last season by piling up big numbers: 83 catches, 1,248 yards, seven TDs. It was a whale of a comeback for a player who couldn't land an NFL job in 2007 because of character concerns. Bryant continues to display improved citizenship, though you have to wonder how long he'll be willing to play the good-soldier role on such a bad team. Bryant had minor knee surgery in training camp and occasionally has to have fluid drained from the knee, but that isn't the reason why his numbers are down this year. Last season, veteran QB Jeff Garcia seemed to look for Bryant nearly every time he dropped back to throw. Now, Garcia is gone and the Bucs are going young at quarterback. Byron Leftwich was yanked from the starting lineup after three games, replaced by Josh Johnson. With the Bucs in rebuilding mode, rookie Josh Freeman, a first-round pick, could take over as the starter as soon as the team returns from a Week Eight bye. No way can Bryant put up consistent numbers with a raw rookie at quarterback. Will this ex-malcontent's knee become more of an issue as the losses pile up and the number of catchable balls coming his way remains low? For now, you might not feel terrible if circumstances force you to give Bryant a spot start in a given week, but you wouldn't want him in your lineup every week.
2. Browns: Mohamed Massaquoi — The rookie's eight-catch, 148-yard performance against Cincinnati in Week Four was something of a mirage. Oh, sure, Massaquoi is talented and may one day become a reliable fantasy starter, but that day is not now. Sad thing is, Massaquoi is still Cleveland's most valuable fantasy commodity; no NFL team has less to offer fantasy-leaguers. The Browns are a train wreck, and in the three games they've played since the game against the Bengals, Massaquoi has twice been held to a single catch, including last week vs. the Packers. Massaquoi wore Green Bay defensive backs like well-tailored suits in that game, and yet that didn't stop QB Derek Anderson from throwing to him repeatedly. (Tight coverage rarely discourages Anderson.) Recognizing that they're going nowhere this year, the Browns were willing to deal away unhappy WR Braylon Edwards and give playing time to rookies Massaquoi and Brian Robiskie. But in this case, playing time doesn't mean significant fantasy production.
1. Rams: Steven Jackson — It's criminally unfair that a player this good is stuck on a team this bad. I'm not sure either Superman or The Flash could average 4.4 yards per carry on the 2009 Rams. (Well, maybe The Flash could ... he breaks a lot of long runs.) Despite a miserable supporting cast, Jackson ranks third in the league in rushing with 635 yards, and he's added 169 receiving yards. Trouble is, he still hasn't scored a TD. During recent years, Jackson has scored an extraordinarily high percentage of the Rams' offensive touchdowns. But the hapless Rams have scored only five offensive touchdowns so far, and they'll be lucky to get that rate up to one offensive TD per game. Still, Jackson is too good to bench. He won't come close to double digits in TDs this season, but he'll find the endzone a few times and rack up enough yardage to make him worth your while.
In addition to "Fitz's Five," each week during the season Pat Fitzmaurice will post his frequently updated player rankings based on the week's matchups, "Ten most intriguing players" of the week, and "The 60-second rant" — all in the Fantasy section.
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