Both of my underdog picks (Atlanta and Cincinnati) won vs. the spread and on the money line last week, and my Under 40½ play in Browns-Bills was a wind-aided rout against the number. What will I do for an encore? Well, I'm sticking with the Bengals, but I'm playing against the Falcons. Also, my only Over/Under pick involves a dome game, so the weather gods can't help me this week.

On to the picks:

Houston (+5) at Cincinnati

This line opened with the Bengals favored by 6½ points, and I understand why bettors have been eager to take the points, as Cincinnati's four wins have come by a grand total of 16 points.

However, let's look at the teams the Bengals have played. The loss to Denver in Week One was a fluke, and the Broncos playing them so close for four quarters no longer looks egregious; in fact, it's something of a badge of honor. Cincinnati has won four straight since, and even the worst of those wins, a three-point triumph at Cleveland, showed the Bengals could win with something less than their best effort.

Now let's look at the Texans. Their grit in a comeback win at Tennessee in Week Two was striking, and you have to give them credit for whipping a sad-looking Oakland outfit in Week Four. But their defense is a major weakness and has been picked parts for stretches in several of their games, most recently last week at Arizona, when Cardinals QB Kurt Warner threw for 262 yards and two TDs in the first half.

The Bengals' offense should not have much trouble with the Texans' defense, and I'm expecting the Cincinnati defense to stuff the run, take away Pro Bowl WR Andre Johnson and pressure QB Matt Schaub. The Houston offense is loaded with talent, and Schaub could make the Bengals pay for this strategy. And he likely will on a handful of plays. But he's prone to make mistakes when under pressure, and the Bengals are adept at forcing such miscues.

Some will say the Bengals are due for a letdown — a "bounce," as the horseplayers in the audience would say — after the emotional win at Baltimore. But I look at Cincinnati's form and wonder if the best yet isn't to come. QB Carson Palmer is getting better and better. The defense is swarming. The kicking game will bounce back soon enough, and replacing struggling LS Brad St. Louis should help.  

Look, I love a good nickname, and "Cardiac Cats" has a ring to it, but I'm not seeing the Bengals playing another close game in Week Six. They have a good shot at winning clear against an opponent that can't hold up defensively against playoff-caliber competition.

Wilkening's pick: Cincinnati

Baltimore at Minnesota (O/U 43½)

It's weird: I believe in the Ravens' offense. I'm convinced QB Joe Flacco has Pro Bowl talent. The running game is potent and versatile. And offensive coordinator Cam Cameron's game plans can be absolute masterpieces.

But I'm starting to wonder about Baltimore's defense. The Ravens' secondary is quite vulnerable, and their front seven was gashed by Cincinnati's Cedric Benson last week. Right now, it looks like a good, not a great, defense, and its problems vs. the pass could particularly put it in a tough spot vs. Minnesota.

However, the Vikings' defense is not playing at an elite level, either, and it surrendered a surprising 400 yards to St. Louis in Week Five, six days after allowing 424 yards to the Packers. In short, I really like the Over, particularly when I believe there's a strong case for the total being 45 points or higher — and that it might get there by game time.

Wilkening's pick: Over 43

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Chicago (+3) at Atlanta

I'm 3-0 picking Bears games this season, so let's go to the well one more time. The Bears had the Falcons all but beat last season before a defensive lapse in the final seconds allowed Atlanta to kick a game-winning field goal, and I like how they match up with the Falcons even more this season. Chicago gets better and better each week and has a very good chance at winning this game outright.

Wilkening's pick: Chicago

Arizona (+3) at Seattle

The Seahawks are a completely different team with QB Matt Hasselbeck in the lineup, and they are much more formidable at home. Home-field advantage is well down the list of elements I consider in my handicapping, but the Seahawks definitely draw some energy from playing at Qwest Field.

The Cardinals' inability to protect QB Kurt Warner is a big-time problem, as is their lack of a running game. They blew a 21-point lead vs. Houston in Week Five before rallying late and have yet to play a complete game this season.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Cardinals posted a better overall record than the Seahawks in 2009. Hasselbeck's durability is a major concern, and the fall-off to backup Seneca Wallace is substantial. But at the moment, the Seahawks are in good form, and laying just a field goal at home, they are the play.

Wilkening's pick: Seattle

Last week: 3-1
Season to date: 10-10