Posted Oct. 07, 2009 @ 12:42 p.m.
Matchups to exploit
The Cowboys don't want to put too much pressure on RB Marion Barber as he recovers from his quad injury, so it's likely he and Tashard Choice again will split time next week. Going against a Chiefs run defense that's giving up 128.5 yards per game and has yielded five rushing scores, they both belong in fantasy lineups, especially when you consider that Dallas is gaining 6.0 yards per carry this season.
49ers QB Shaun Hill isn't a prolific passer, but coming off a two-TD performance in Week Four, he could be in line for nice numbers again this Sunday. Not only are the Falcons allowing 245.3 passing yards per contest, but their high-octane offense could force the 49ers to air it out more than usual. Expect nice stats from Hill, who is developing a solid rapport with TE Vernon Davis.
Bills RB Marshawn Lynch struggled in his return from suspension last Sunday, but he should rebound this week. Taking on a Browns run defense that's getting gashed for 176.8 yards per game and has surrendered eight TDs on the ground, Lynch and backfield mate Fred Jackson both make for viable starting options. Although they're splitting carries, both should get enough work to produce in this one.
If your starting QB is on bye this week, give strong consideration to replacing him with Chiefs QB Matt Cassel. Although yardage has been hard for him to come by lately, Cassel has thrown two TD passes in each of the past two games. Facing a Dallas pass defense that's allowing 256.3 yards per contest and has yielded six TD tosses, he could have a surprisingly effective afternoon.
Matchups to avoid
The Dolphins have boasted the league's second-most stout run defense in the early going, giving up a mere 61 yards per game on the ground and 2.9 yards per carry. That's bad news for the Jets' backfield tandem of Thomas Jones and Leon Washington, which could be in for a rough evening this Monday. Look for New York to go pass-heavy in this one, exploiting Miami's main weakness.
Running room has been few and far between for Lions RB Kevin Smith, who is gaining just 3.2 yards per carry this season despite taking on a heavy workload. If Detroit's offensive line continues its subpar play, it's going to be another rough one for Smith this Sunday against the Steelers, who are allowing just 61.5 rushing yards per contest and have surrendered one TD on the ground. Consider other options if possible.
Titans QB Kerry Collins has been an interception machine in recent weeks, and things won't get any easier Sunday night against the Colts, who have given up just two scoring passes all year. Given the tough matchup and the fact that Tennessee is running the ball well, this is probably a good time to stay away from Collins and WR Justin Gage, who also has sputtered lately.
Even though he has been playing well, owners are going to have to think twice before deploying Bengals RB Cedric Benson this week. The Ravens have the league's No. 1 run defense at 59.5 yards allowed per contest, and Benson was only able to manage 10-17-0 the last time he faced them Week 13 last season. Cincinnati should have much more success throwing than running in this one, so Benson owners might be wise to look elsewhere.