This week, I'm backing two NFC East teams, and I'm talking a look at two Overs.

On to the picks:

Dallas (-3) at Denver

I'm not going to make a habit picking against unbeaten home teams laying points, but I don't believe the Broncos can keep up with the Cowboys for four quarters. And no, I'm not holding the Broncos' wins against Cincinnati, Cleveland and Oakland against them; it's amusing that so many are holding their noses and waving off Denver's 3-0 start as if the wins don't count. Can you imagine if the Broncos would have lost one or two of those games? Yikes.

But back to my point. The Broncos are racking up 374.3 yards per game, but they have scored touchdowns on just four of 10 drives inside the red zone. For as well as they played vs. the Raiders, scoring just 23 points left me a little underwhelmed, as 3-of-5 drives inside the Oakland 10 stalled, leading to two touchdowns, two field goals, and another ending with Oakland forcing a turnover on downs.

The Broncos' attack could pose a few problems for Dallas, but the Cowboys' best effort on offense is something to behold, and their defense made some nice strides in the Week Three victory over Carolina. I'll take the Cowboys.

Wilkening's pick: Dallas

Detroit at Chicago (O/U 38½)

I like this matchup for the Bears; they have yet to catch a defense this weak. It would be no surprise if they came close to or exceeded the 25 points they racked up last week at Seattle. But with a spate of injuries at linebacker and a suspect secondary, I can't see Chicago shutting down the Lions' offense, even if Detroit's best runner, Kevin Smith is out. Smith's replacement, Maurice Morris, is a serviceable one-game starter, and the Lions aren't a great running team anyway. Lions QB Matthew Stafford played well in the upset of Washington, and if he limits mistakes, Detroit will string some drives together against the banged-up Bears "D." With good weather forecast, the Over is the play.

Wilkening's pick: Over 38½

Cincinnati at Cleveland (O/U 38)

The Browns have put up three field goals in their past two games, and QB Brady Quinn just could not stretch the field. In the end, that's why he probably lost his job. Cleveland needs to at least employ the threat of the deep pass, and that was difficult to do with Quinn under center.

Quinn's replacement, Derek Anderson, throws a nice deep ball, and I liked what I saw from him in Week Three. Yes, he threw three interceptions, but at least two seemed to be instances where Anderson was forcing the action because the Browns needed touchdowns, and quickly.

The Browns look hopeless. Many expect the Bengals to come in and clobber them. And I expect Cincinnati's offense to not have much trouble with a struggling Cleveland defense. However, I see the Browns' offense making some strides this week with Anderson at the controls. Rain is in the forecast later this week in Cleveland, but conditions are supposed to improve on Sunday. So, too, will the Browns' offensive outlook, I'm thinking.

Wilkening's pick: Over 38

Tampa Bay (+7) at Washington

Weird, wild fact for you: The Redskins are gaining more yards per game and per play than the Vikings. Maybe that doesn't surprise you, but it stunned me. The Vikings undoubtedly boast more offensive talent and are certainly the more explosive team. The Redskins? It's seemingly always a battle to get to 20 points.

But I'm going to back Washington in this one. The Buccaneers' defense has struggled all season, and while new starting QB Josh Johnson doesn't lack for potential, he lacks precious experience, and the Redskins' ballhawking secondary is going to make him pay if he stares down his primary receiver.

The Redskins barely escaped vs. the Rams. They weren't so lucky vs. the Lions. I'm banking on them having learned their lesson — and boasting a little more punch on offense.

Wilkening's pick: Washington

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