Last week was a week to play underdogs. They were 9-7 against the spread, and eight of them won straight-up. This week, though, I'm seeing value in three favorites, and there's also a total that intrigues me.

On to the picks:

Jacksonville (+4) at Houston

When the Texans fell behind 21-7 at Tennessee last week, I was just about ready to write them off, and perhaps for the season, but they came storming back to win 34-31. And now they have a chance to build some early-season momentum, something they have rarely done in their existence.

The Texans aren't exactly known for seizing opportunities, and they have lacked precious little killer instinct throughout their history. A lot of that has to do with their defense, which was shredded by Titans RB Chris Johnson to the tune of 284 total yards in Week Two. Johnson scored on runs of 57 and 91 yards and took a short pass 69 yards for a score when Texans S Dominique Barber didn't get out to cover him in time.

Laying points can be an adventure with the Texans. They had a 3-4 record against the spread as favorites last season and were awful laying 4½ points vs. the Jets in Week One. When they are bad, they are hopeless.

All that said, I'm taking them here for a couple of reasons. One, they were much better defensively after Johnson's 91-yard TD run, allowing just 68 yards and no points on Tennessee's final five drives. They should fare much better against the Jaguars, who have one of the NFL's most limited offenses.

And above all else, I believe the Texans are finally ready to handily win a game like this — a meaningful game they are supposed to win, not some pseudo-exhibition in December when they're out of playoff contention.

Wilkening's pick: Houston

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San Francisco (+7, O/U 40) at Minnesota

As much as I respect what they have done to start this season, I don't think this is a good matchup for the 49ers, a team heavily reliant on the running game and without enough pop in the passing game to trade punches with a team of Minnesota's caliber for four quarters. However, I do think San Francisco can score enough to make the Over an attractive play.

But it's the Vikings' offense that I particularly like.

In watching the Vikings' past two games, I'm taken by how dominant they can be at times, especially on offense. QB Brett Favre isn't being asked to stretch the field, and he doesn't have to; RB Adrian Peterson has played at an MVP level in the first two games. And I'm looking for another sharp effort in Week Three; yes, the Niners held Peterson to three yards on 14 carries in 2007 (a game Minnesota nonetheless won by 20), but that's not happening again. (Peterson was limited by a back injury on Wednesday, and 49ers RB Frank Gore was limited by an ankle injury, but both are among the NFL's most competitive players and are expected to play Sunday.)

The Vikings have weapons upon weapons. One of these weeks rookie WR Percy Harvin will have a huge game; it's going to happen. He already has scored two touchdowns in just 12 touches. Also, WR Bernard Berrian and TE Visanthe Shiancoe present matchup problems for opposing secondaries.

If Favre keeps hitting his targets, and if Peterson keeps running like this, the Vikings' offense will be something to behold. San Francisco might be improved, but it doesn't have nearly the upside of Minnesota. The Vikings' best game has yet to be played, and it will be something else, given the talent on hand.

Wilkening's pick: Minnesota and Over 40

Chicago (-2) at Seattle

I'm not one to look to lay points on the road, particularly at a potentially imposing venue like Qwest Field, but Seattle is likely to be without QB Matt Hasselbeck (ribs), and Chicago is slowly but surely starting to round into form. I'm looking for a season-best performance from the Bears' offense, and the defense should take care of the rest against a Seattle attack that doesn't have the weapons that Green Bay or Pittsburgh boasts. And the Bears' defense fared just fine against those clubs.

Wilkening's pick: Chicago

Last week: 1-3
Season to date: 3-5

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