It's hard to criticize the Vikings' offensive efforts in the first two weeks of the season, considering they are 2-0 and rank second in the league in rushing and fourth in points following their 27-13 win over the Lions. But it's clear that teams are sending the house at the Vikings up front, run blitzing Adrian Peterson and going after Brett Favre, because the deep passing game hasn't developed yet.
The PFW spin
One Vikings observer called the superaggressive defense being played against the Vikings in the first two weeks "the old man syndrome."
The idea is simple: The Vikings' best weapon is Peterson, and teams are not going to let him beat them. And until Favre shows he can open things up downfield, teams — starting with the 49ers at the Metrodome on Sunday — will continue to do so.
Favre was accurate on Sunday, completing 23-of-27 passes, and now has hit on 77.1 percent of his passes. That's great. But his average of 5.5 yards per attempt is 29th in the league, just ahead of checkdown king Brady Quinn and Lions rookie Matthew Stafford, who is barely completing 50 percent of his passes. The Vikings have one pass play of 20 yards or longer this season. They are gaining 5.4 yards per rushing attempt, for comparison, and have run the ball more than they have thrown it.
Another concern with the limited passing results is the damage Favre has been taking. On only 55 dropbacks, he has taken seven sacks and has been hit at least 13 times, according to NFL records, in two games against the Browns and Lions, two of the worst statistical defenses last season. What happens when the Lions face the pressure-happy 49ers and Packers the next two games? With the Packers and Jets from 2006 to '08, Favre took a sack every 26.3 dropbacks; this season, he's being taken down every 7.9 pass plays.
Protection has been one problem. First-time starters, C John Sullivan and ORT Phil Loadholt, have been the weak links so far in pass protection. Loadholt lined up opposite Lions DE Jason Hunter, who had one sack and four hits on Favre on Sunday. Sullivan was in the area when MLB Larry Foote registered a sack and two hits on Favre. The Vikings appear to need at least one extra blocker — a back or a tight end — to stay home to help. That takes away one more receiver from the play.
The problem isn't only the lost yardage with the sacks, which has been an average of nearly six yards per takedown. It's also the injury risk. Favre, who played in his 271st consecutive game on Sunday, which is an NFL record, undoubtedly is one of the NFL's toughest players. But at age 39, coming off offseason surgery, Favre can't take hits at this rate. Over the course of the season, he's on pace to take 56 sacks and 104 hits, which is way too many for a man his age and a passing attack that is so limited.
Some of this can be overcome with better chemistry. The downfield passing game will take time, according to WR Bernard Berrian. You could see the Vikings tried to get Berrian involved on Sunday by running a rare short crossing route for him, but he's at his best when he's running longer routes and not having to make tacklers miss in traffic. That's where rookie Percy Harvin is at his best, and he has been a frequent target with eight receptions for 77 yards.
The Vikings eventually took a few shots downfield in the third quarter of the win Sunday, and they eventually will do more of this. Because Brad Childress has unique trust in his new QB, you can bet that Favre will opt to audible to plays as the season goes on that help stretch the field. If he sees 6-foot-4 Sidney Rice singled up on a 5-11 cornerback with the safety down in the box, Favre surely will call for a jump ball, as he did on an incomplete pass attempt to Rice early in the third quarter on a 2nd-and-8 play.
Favre said the Lions' defense dictated that the Vikings throw short, but that isn't the entire story. Yes, Detroit used a two-deep as its base coverage but also liberally mixed in a lot of cover-zero (all-out blitz) looks, which led to Favre hitting his hot receivers on quick slants and underneath stuff. For the Vikings to develop things downfield, which in turn will protect Favre and Peterson better from injury, they must improve their protection, establish more of a rapport with guys like Berrian and design plays to go for more than five yards past the line of scrimmage.