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Breaking down Stafford's first start: some good, more bad

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Recent posts by Eric Edholm

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By Eric Edholm

On Sunday against the Saints, Lions No. 1 pick Matthew Stafford became the second-youngest Week One starting quarterback in NFL history, just a few weeks older than Drew Bledsoe when he started Week One against the Bills back in 1993. The results were similar: Both players suffered humbling opening games, with Stafford completing only 16-of-37 passes for 205 yards and three interceptions. But amid a series of mistakes and off-target passes, there were a few bright spots. Not an overwhelming amount, but enough to make Lions fans think they have a quarterback who has a chance to be good. Perhaps very good one day.

The PFW spin

Accuracy was one of the biggest problems for Stafford through the preseason, and it again plagued him in his first start. He missed on some throws he'd probably like to have back after having seen the game tape Monday, but there wasn't anything glaringly awful about what Stafford did in his first game.

And he was dealt a bad hand early, when the Saints took less than three minutes to score on their opening drive and the Lions called three safe, conservative and ultimately unsuccessful plays on their first series. It wasn't until it was 14-0 that Stafford had a chance to open things up, and that's no easy hole to dig out of.

But Stafford made a nice throw on 1st-and-10 during the second possession, seeing the Saints' six-man pressure look and hitting Calvin Johnson on a quick slant for 21 yards to gain some instant momentum. The drive led to a field goal and kept the Lions in business, with Stafford executing most pass plays well, even if the kid gloves were kept on a bit by offensive coordinator Scott Linehan. The Lions would make it 14-10 later.

The bad came out on a few plays late in the first half. With the Saints now up 21-10, Stafford got the ball on his own 20-yard line with 3:45 left in the second quarter. It was go time, and he failed to sense a backside rush on 1st-and-10, taking a sack for a seven-yard loss. It put the team in 2nd-and-long, and overthrows to TE Will Heller and Johnson, respectively, gave the ball back to the Saints.

When Linehan wanted to open things up here, Stafford came up short by not getting rid of the ball in stride and on time. Stafford got one more good shot at the endzone before the half, down 28-10 at this point, but he forced a bad throw into traffic (there were three defenders in the area, and two who could have made a play on the ball) near the goal line when looking for Johnson. FS Darren Sharper's INT return put the Saints in scoring position, and only a blocked FG attempt prevented them from being up 31-10 at the half.

On the third play of the second half, Stafford made a great throw to Johnson, who beat his man a post pattern, on what should have been a touchdown. (Replays appeared to show that Johnson did not go out of bounds on what would have been a 67-yard TD, but the officials said his foot stepped out at the 3-yard line.) Stafford did a good job of recognizing eight defenders, man-off coverage and a single-high safety look and knew Johnson could do the rest after the catch. As soon as Stafford's back foot hit the ground, the ball was out on a rope to Johnson, whose catch set up a score (a Stafford sneak from the 1 on which he got smacked by Saints LB Jonathan Vilma), making it a 28-17 game early in the third.

On the subsequent drive, following an 87-yard kickoff return, Stafford's nice throw to Casey FitzSimmons put the ball at the 1, but they couldn't get into the endzone after two incompletions; on 3rd-and-goal, Stafford threw the ball too far in the endzone for Bryant Johnson, who appeared to have a step on his defender.

Inaccuracy caused Stafford's third pick. He had time to hit Yamon Figurs, who was added to the roster late last week, on an underneath route, but Stafford throw fluttered wide and it was picked off and run back to the Lions' 30-yard line.

Going through his progressions and making accurate throws proved to be a big challenge for the rookie starter. When Johnson, Johnson or RB Kevin Smith were not open, Stafford really had trouble finding anyone open.

It's not a shock that a top overall pick struggles with his accuracy as a rookie. Troy Aikman, known for being a precise passer later in his career, completed 52.9 percent of his passes in his first season. Eli Manning hit on only 48.2 percent as a rookie. Bledsoe was at 49.9. David Carr hit on 52.5 as a rookie but four years later led the league at 68.3. Peyton Manning was pretty good at 56.7 percent as a 16-game starter his rookie season; it was the last year of his career he'd finish below 62 percent.

Becoming more accurate will come with time. It will happen when Stafford feels the pace of the game better and trusts his other receivers besides Calvin Johnson in crucial situations. Better protection also will help, although the line appeared to play fairly well from a pass-blocking standpoint.

You could say that Stafford led his team to 27 points on the road, but that would not be telling the whole story. The defense scored one touchdown, and the special teams consistently gave the Lions excellent field position. Stafford also had the red-zone pick and probably should have scored seven points there, and at least three.

There will be better days for the young QB. He showed glimpses of great play ahead, but it clearly is going to be a tough road — especially with the Vikings, Redskins, Bears, Steelers and Packers staring him in the face before the bye week. Buckle up that chinstrap, young man. It's going to be an interesting few weeks here.

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