1. LaDainian Tomlinson — No one will make or break more fantasy seasons in 2009. Either Tomlinson owners got a nice discount on a 20-TD, yardage machine coming off a one-season hiccup, or they got fair value on a running back who has now joined the ranks of the good but merely mortal, or they grossly overdrafted an over-the-hill former superstar whose career is about to go over a cliff. L.T. and the Chargers open the season Monday night in Oakland, in the final game of Week One. If Tomlinson can't make hay against the Raiders' leaky, disorganized defense, his fantasy owners should be afraid. They should be very afraid.
2. Jay Cutler — The Angry Young Man is about to play his first game for the Bears, and after playing with WRs Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal last season, the grumpy Cutler may have some sour moments when reflecting on his new WR corps, featuring Devin Hester and ... and ... um, hold on. It'll come to me. On the other hand, Cutler has terrific young RB Matt Forté to keep defenses honest, Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark form one of the league's best TE combos, and Cutler's new offensive line is competent. The Bears will visit Green Bay to take on the archrival Packers in the Sunday-night showcase game, and a matchup with the hated Huns to the north puts even more pressure on Cutler to make a good first impression on Bears fans. It will be interesting to see how Cutler fares against the Packers' new 3-4 defense. Will it pose problems for him, or will he be able to find its soft spots?
3. Brandon Marshall — So far, Marshall hasn't been able to pout his way out of Denver, and his juvenile behavior in practice brought a brief suspension rather than the fat new contract he's seeking. Can this marriage be saved? Marshall is now back with the Broncos, his suspension having lapsed and a trade to another team never having materialized (at least not yet). Marshall is probably one of the five most talented receivers in the league, but he recently admitted to not knowing the new coaching staff's playbook, and he may well be immature enough to let his unhappiness with the Broncos affect his performance this season. Plus, Marshall must also bond with a new quarterback, Kyle Orton, who's not as good as Marshall's previous quarterback, Jay Cutler, and doesn't throw nearly as good a deep ball as Cutler did. And as bad as this all sounds, would it surprise you if Marshall went out and rang up 150 receiving yards and a couple of TDs against the Jets this weekend? Me neither.
4. Brett Favre — He'll probably be a Week One starter in fewer than 50 percent of fantasy leagues across the country, but Favre owners are anxious to see whether the old guy still has it. Is he good enough to be an every-week fantasy starter? Is he good enough to be a spot starter? Or is Favre about to show us that he's come to the end of the line, regardless of whether he wants to admit it? The Browns' defense certainly won't be the toughest bunch Favre will encounter this season, and it's possible Favre barely throws enough to get his arm loose while Adrian Peterson runs Cleveland ragged.
5. Maurice Jones-Drew — Fantasy owners have long speculated about what Jones-Drew might be able to do if he didn't have to share carries with Fred Taylor. Well, we're about to find out. MJD's first game as the Jaguars' unofficial Main Man is against the Colts, whom he shredded for 328 rushing-receiving yards and a TD in two games last season.
6. Terrell Owens — Bills fans are thrilled about Owens' arrival, but even Buffalo's proximity to Niagara Falls might not be enough to make the honeymoon last. Maybe this is way off, but the guess here is that the Bills will be awful this season, as in 3-13 awful. Owens acts preposterously on winning teams; could you imagine his behavior during a 3-13 season? T.O. has played with the likes of Steve Young and Tony Romo, and now he's playing with Trent Edwards, a quarterback of modest talents who will be further handicapped by a patchwork offensive line. Will Owens get a satisfactory number of balls thrown his way this weekend when the Bills visit New England?
7. Carson Palmer — The Bengals' veteran quarterback hasn't played a regular-season game in 11 months, and we barely saw him in the preseason due to a sprained ankle. Once the rust is scraped off, will Palmer be the fantasy difference maker he used to be, or has his career arc already crested? If Palmer's numbers disappoint this season, his wide receivers probably won't be to blame. With Chad Ochocinco, Laveranues Coles and Chris Henry, Palmer has ample weaponry. It will be interesting to see how Palmer uses his arsenal this weekend against a bad Denver defense.
8. Ray Rice — There were times last season where Rice looked like the do-it-all running back the Ravens are looking for, but then the playoffs started, and Rice rode the bench for three postseason games while Willis McGahee and Le'Ron McClain shared the rushing duties. Now, Rice is considered the Ravens' main man, but McGahee is still very much in the picture, and McClain is around, too, even though he's been shifted to fullback. In other words, Rice can't afford to get off to a slow start. The good news is that the Ravens open against the Chiefs, whose run defense isn't exactly stingy. Rice owners are undoubtedly anxious to see how big Rice's slice of the pie will be. If he's successfully gashing the Kansas City run defense, will he get 20-plus carries, or will he only get 12-15, with McGahee getting a similar share and McClain getting a few touches, too?
9. Reggie Bush — Injuries have kept Bush below 1,000 combined yards in his last two seasons, and his knee is still said to be problematic. The Saints have a somewhat ill-defined backfield, with Pierre Thomas (also dealing with a knee issue) and Mike Bell in line for carries. There are few fantasy owners who still imagine Bush reaching the same level of stardom he seemed destined for coming out of USC, but in his defense, he's still a pretty effective player, provided he's used correctly. Saints head coach Sean Payton has done a pretty good job of using him. The question is whether Payton feels his hands are tied by a running back who isn't all that good at making things happen via conventional handoff. Perhaps Bush can emphatically assert his value this weekend with some big plays against the woeful Lions.
10. Brian Westbrook — The perpetually beaten-up Westbrook is ready to start the season after a couple of offseason surgeries (knee, ankle) that kept him out of the preseason. Westbrook is usually excellent when healthy, but is he fully healthy, and if so, how long can he stay that way? Not only will we get to judge his fitness when he faces the Panthers in Week One, but we'll also get to see the extent to which Eagles head coach Andy Reid works rookie RB LeSean McCoy into the mix in order to save wear and tear on Westbrook.
Coming Thursday: The 60-second rant