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First-round QBs get benefit over others

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    QBs Kevin O'Connell (left) and Brian Brohm

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Recent posts by Eric Edholm

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By Eric Edholm

It was quite an offseason for quarterbacks. Jay Cutler and Matt Cassel got traded, and the latter went from seventh-round nobody to a $64 million man. Cutler soon should join his tax bracket, with a contract extension from the Bears in the offing at some point.

Eli Manning and Philip Rivers got their massive paydays, too, as the stars of the vaunted 2004 QB class along with Ben Roethlisberger, who is coming off his second Super Bowl title.

But they’re not even the highest-paid guys — at least not in terms of guaranteed money. That honor would belong to rookie Matthew Stafford, who will earn $41.7 million for sure and as much as $78 million. No. 5 pick Mark Sanchez cashed in, too, with $28 million guaranteed and a max value of $60 million.

And, of course, the NFL welcomed back Michael Vick and Brett Favre, who will be well-paid and closely followed.

These are the NFL’s elite — either in terms of talent, bankroll or both. Enjoy it, fellas. After all, you could be Kevin O’Connell, Brian Brohm or John Beck, who find themselves much further down the food chain, even though they once nipped at greatness’ heels.

Those three each were drafted in the first three rounds in 2007 and ’08 and had high upsides. They were touted as future starters who, especially in the case of Brohm or Beck, could have been first-round picks. Now O’Connell (an ’08 pick) has been cut by the Patriots, Brohm (also ’08) is hanging on by a thread with the Packers, and Beck (’07) already has been ditched by his first team (Miami) and toils near the bottom of the Ravens’ QB totem pole.

What about Kevin Kolb, Drew Stanton and Kellen Clemens? They were all respected second-rounders, too, and they were billed as long-term replacements to Donovan McNabb, Jon Kitna and Chad Pennington, respectively. Now, Kolb finds himself the forgotten man in the Vick-McNabb derby. Stanton suffered a knee injury … the same day the Lions claimed O'Connell off waivers. And Clemens almost certainly won’t have a chance to start for the Jets unless Sanchez is a disaster or gets injured badly.

For every Manning, Rivers or Roethlisberger, there are 10 quarterbacks who flame out. At least.

Of the 64 quarterbacks drafted from 2004 to 2008, only 26 remain with the teams that drafted them, and of those 26, only 10 of those are starting. (We're counting Eli Manning and Philip Rivers as having been drafted by the Giants and Chargers, respectively, although technically they were traded to those teams on Draft Day 2004.) Four quarterbacks drafted in that period are starting for teams other than the ones that took them originally, and 15 are out of the league. The rest are backups, most of whom won’t have a chance to be a starter in this league. Never mind all the undrafted guys, most of whom don’t have a shot in the world to make it.

It’s no surprise that first-round QBs have a higher success rate of making it in the NFL than those taken in the second round or after. Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, JaMarcus Russell, Cutler, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, Manning, Rivers and Roethlisberger have starting jobs locked up, and Brady Quinn soon might have one, too.

The first-round failures since ’04 have been fewer. Vince Young was a starter his first two seasons but since has gone to the bench. Matt Leinart could get his chance with Arizona at some point but also gave up a starting job. Alex Smith just lost his gig to Shaun Hill. And J.P. Losman is in the UFL, hoping for a chance to get back to the big leagues.

That’s a pretty good success rate. But throw in the other quarterbacks, and it might make teams think twice about drafting them after the first round ends. Trent Edwards (third round, ’07) has the Bills’ starting job for now but enters a critical season for his future. Kyle Orton (fourth round, ’05) is the Broncos’ guy, but he hasn’t been welcomed warmly. Cassel (seventh round, ’05) holds the keys in Kansas City but must prove he’s no one-hit wonder. If he can stay healthy, Matt Schaub (third round, ’04) should have the Texans’ job under wraps.

And that’s about it. There are not many guys drafted after Round One in this five-year slot who have a realistic chance of becoming a starter without injuries happening.

You have Chad Henne in Miami. Tarvaris Jackson, the unfortunate victim in the Favre situation, could start down the road, though the Vikings don’t appear to love him anymore. Maybe some guys such as Tyler Thigpen, Derek Anderson, Jackson and Kolb have trade value and could make a splash with a new team. But don’t bank on it.

What you’re seeing now is that even the good QB classes are very top-heavy. The success of the ’04 and ’08 classes and the potential of this year’s class have been well-noted, but we’re only talking about three players per draft, most of whom were first-round picks.

Only four undrafted quarterbacks are slated to start in the NFL this season — Arizona’s Kurt Warner, Dallas’ Tony Romo, Carolina’s Jake Delhomme and San Francisco’s Hill. We talk a lot about the success of lower-round picks such as Tom Brady, Marc Bulger, Matt Hasselbeck, David Garrard and perhaps Cassel, but it’s mostly the first-rounders who thrive. If we project Quinn to start and consider that the winner of the Lions’ job (Stafford vs. Daunte Culpepper) will produce a first-round pick, then 18 of the 32 starting quarterbacks for Week One will have been picked in Round One.

That thinking clearly factored into the Lions’ and Jets’ approaches on Draft Day. Other needs might have appeared more pressing, but you have to take a good quarterback high in the draft if you have a shot.

It’s too late to bury some of these high picks who have yet to make it. Young still intrigues some people around the league. Leinart is not a lost cause yet, though he might not stay with the Cardinals. Same with Smith, who might need a change of scenery from the 49ers. It would be tough to imagine these guys not getting a shot somewhere. Losman hasn’t yet, but most first-rounders do.

But the window tightens for those players drafted after Round One — and very quickly. Brohm and O’Connell are not the only ’08 quarterbacks with questionable futures. John David Booty might be a casualty in Minnesota because of precious roster space. Ditto Josh Johnson in Tampa. Erik Ainge is an afterthought with the Jets, and Colt Brennan and Andre’ Woodson are fighting for their roster lives with the Redskins and Giants, respectively, trying to fight off a pair of rookies, Chase Daniel and Rhett Bomar. Alex Brink could get whacked by the Texans. Why? Because Rex Grossman — yep, a former first-rounder — could get the edge despite being hurt most of training camp.

The window to make it as a lower-round quarterback might be down to a two-year experiment. Essentially what teams are telling these guys is that your rookie year is a redshirt year; but if you don’t make a big jump in Year Two, there might not be a Year Three.

For every Charlie Frye or Bruce Gradkowski — they are battling for Oakland’s No. 3 spot, meaning one of them likely will be cut — who get tossed around from team to team, or for guys such as Jim Sorgi, Brodie Croyle, Charlie Whitehurst or Matt Flynn, who have settled in as their teams’ well-liked backups behind big-name starters, there are dozens of quarterbacks who are jettisoned out of town every year.

Remember David Greene, the Seahawks’ gritty third-round pick in ’05? He’s broadcasting Georgia football games this fall. Craig Krenzel, the Bears’ fifth-rounder in ’04? Last I heard he was planning to go to medical school. And I couldn’t tell you where Steelers fifth-round pick ('06) Omar Jacobs is now. Not in the league, that I know.

More quarterbacks will join the out-of-workforce come cutdown day. But chances are you’ll see 10 nobodies cut for every one former first-round pick. It’s the way it goes in the NFL.

 

Kickoff is coming! PFW's annual Kickoff Issue goes on sale at PFWstore.com Monday evening and at newsstands and bookstores later this week. Also, be sure to buy copies of the Pro Football Weekly/Yahoo! Sports 2009 NFL preview magazine, as well as the Pro Football Weekly/Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Football Guide 2009, both of which are now available at bookstores, newsstands and retail outlets where magazines are sold. Or order your copies online at PFWStore.com .

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