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STATS, LLC Week 11 of the 2009 Regular Season

Thu 11/19
Dolphins 24
Panthers 17
Final
Sun 11/22
Saints -
Buccaneers -
1 p.m. ET
Sun 11/22
Falcons -
Giants -
1 p.m. ET
Sun 11/22
Seahawks -
Vikings -
1 p.m. ET
Sun 11/22
Steelers -
Chiefs -
1 p.m. ET
Sun 11/22
Bills -
Jaguars -
1 p.m. ET
Sun 11/22
49ers -
Packers -
1 p.m. ET
Sun 11/22
Browns -
Lions -
1 p.m. ET
Sun 11/22
Redskins -
Cowboys -
1 p.m. ET
Sun 11/22
Colts -
Ravens -
1 p.m. ET
Sun 11/22
Cardinals -
Rams -
4:05 p.m. ET
Sun 11/22
Bengals -
Raiders -
4:15 p.m. ET
Sun 11/22
Jets -
Patriots -
4:15 p.m. ET
Sun 11/22
Chargers -
Broncos -
4:15 p.m. ET
Sun 11/22
Eagles -
Bears -
8:20 p.m. ET
Mon 11/23
Titans -
Texans -
8:30 p.m. ET

Beware of rookie receivers

About the Author

Recent posts by Eric Edholm

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By Eric Edholm

Broncos WR Eddie Royal and Eagles WR DeSean Jackson had highly successful rookie seasons, emerging as potential stars. Rams WR Donnie Avery proved his critics wrong with a nice debut, and Dolphins WR Davone Bess was among the nicest first-year surprises in the NFL.

Apart from them, the 2008 rookie WR class was almost non-existent.

Consider:

• No ’08 rookie wideout, including these fine gentlemen mentioned above, had a 1,000-yard season.
• Only four rookie wideouts totaled more than 366 yards.
• None had more than five TDs.
• Only one (Royal) had more than three scores.

Traditionally, wide receiver is one of the positions that takes the longest to produce. It’s in Year Two or Three that receivers often fine tune the nuances of the position and earn their quarterback’s trust.

For every Randy Moss or Anquan Boldin who became stars instantly, there are dozens of examples of future star wideouts who struggle in their first season. Reggie Wayne caught 27 passes, none for touchdowns. Steve Smith caught 10 passes, none for scores. Roddy White had 29 and three. Terrell Owens didn’t become a star until his third season. T.J. Houshmandzadeh didn’t have his first 1,000-yard season until his sixth year as a pro. The list goes on.

The same likely will be true for the 2009 class of rooks. There will be one or two stars, another two or three moderate contributors and a whole bunch of forgotten fantasy players. Remember James Hardy last season? He was the red-zone target the Bills needed, or so we thought. Now last season’s class did lack a star (and a first-round pick), but the trend of rookie receivers struggling is not a one-year thing.

This year’s draft looked vastly different with six first-round picks and another three in Round Two if you count Miami’s Pat White. But that doesn’t mean you should jump all over these guys. Use extreme caution, in fact.

For instance, Darrius Heyward-Bey might have been the top rookie selected, seventh overall, but he struggled this summer in minicamps and OTAs and might need a few seasons to percolate. Michael Crabtree, most fantasy owners’ top-rated rookie receiver, looks the part and will get every chance to contribute immediately, but he is playing with two shaky quarterbacks. And though Jeremy Maclin fits in well with a nice offense in Philly, he might be no higher than the Eagles’ fourth receiver his first season.

To me, the rookies with the best chances to contribute right away are the Vikings’ Percy Harvin, the Giants’ Hakeem Nicks and the Browns’ Brian Robiskie.

Harvin might not catch a ton of passes in what should be a share-the-wealth passing offense, but his big-play ability stands out and makes him a factor. Nicks has a great chance to start and grab a key role in an offense that lost Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer. And Robiskie could be among the leaders in rookie receptions with a great chance to complement Braylon Edwards in a Browns offense that might end up having to throw a lot.

Some of these rookies mentioned will become stars. Most, though, will have to wait more than a year to do so. Don’t overvalue the first-year guys.

 

Kickoff is coming! Be sure to buy copies of the Pro Football Weekly/Yahoo! Sports 2009 NFL preview magazine, as well as the Pro Football Weekly/Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Football Guide 2009, both of which are now available at bookstores, newsstands and retail outlets where magazines are sold. Or order your copies online at PFWStore.com.

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