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STATS, LLC Week 9 of the 2009 Regular Season

Sun 11/8
Redskins -
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1 p.m. ET
Sun 11/8
Packers -
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1 p.m. ET
Sun 11/8
Dolphins -
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1 p.m. ET
Sun 11/8
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Sun 11/8
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Sun 11/8
Ravens -
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1 p.m. ET
Sun 11/8
Cardinals -
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Panthers -
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4:05 p.m. ET
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Chargers -
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Titans -
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Cowboys -
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8:20 p.m. ET
Mon 11/9
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8:30 p.m. ET

Breaking down Round One, pick by pick

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    Vikings RB Adrian Peterson

About the Author

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By Michael Blunda

We still might be a few weeks away from the start of training camps, but if you’re like me, you’re already jonesing for some fantasy football action. Unfortunately, you are probably going to have to wait a while for your league’s draft to arrive, but that doesn’t mean you can’t begin to formulate some thoughts and ideas as to what may play out on draft day.

To whet your appetite and help you prepare for the big event, here’s a breakdown of what you can expect — and what your thought process might be — during each selection of the first round of your fantasy draft (assuming a 12-team league with standard scoring):

Pick No. 1
Unlike the past few years, when LaDainian Tomlinson was the clear-cut top pick, things won’t be quite as cut and dried at No. 1 in 2009. From a talent and potential standpoint, nobody can match Adrian Peterson, but the Vikings’ stud was only the third-highest fantasy scorer among running backs last year and has a track record of injuries in his past. A decent case could be made for either Michael Turner or Maurice Jones-Drew, the latter of whom has gone first overall in some mock drafts I’ve seen, but in the end the total package of Peterson wins out.
Ideal choice: Adrian Peterson
Other viable options:
Michael Turner, Maurice Jones-Drew

Pick No. 2
In most drafts, the decision here will be between Turner and Jones-Drew. Which player you pick likely will depend on your approach to fantasy football. If you prefer to play it safe early on with guaranteed producers, you’ll opt for Turner, the second-best fantasy RB in ’08. However, owners who like to roll the dice on risky guys with massive upside will lean toward M.J.D., now the starter in Jacksonville. In fact, Yahoo! fantasy expert Brandon Funston and I debate this exact dilemma in the PFW/Yahoo! Sports NFL Preview Magazine, on sale now.
Ideal choice: Michael Turner
Other viable option: Maurice Jones-Drew

Pick No. 3
Those picking at No. 3 actually have a pretty enviable spot, because they can let the first two owners do all the work for them. In my mind, there’s a slight drop-off after the “big three” of A.P., Turner and M.J.D., meaning the owner with this selection wlll be handed the remaining back of the aforementioned trio. You really can’t lose no matter how the first two picks shake out. Of course, the lure of do-it-all RB Matt Forté will have some people grabbing him here, but they’d be taking a calculated gamble.
Ideal choice: Maurice Jones-Drew
Other viable option: Matt Forté

Pick No. 4
Fourth is not going to be an easy spot to pick from this year, as there are a few players not that far apart but each with his own appeal. Following his monster rookie campaign, Forté seems to stand out a bit, but inexperience and a different offense (with QB Jay Cutler aboard) create some questions. Then there’s last season’s top-scoring fantasy back, DeAngelo Williams, who put up such ridiculous numbers that he doesn’t deserve to slide much further down the board. And don’t forget L.T., who wasn’t the same in ’08 but could be in for a rebound. It’s close, but Forté gives owners the most bang for their buck.
Ideal choice: Matt Forté
Other viable options: LaDainian Tomlinson, DeAngelo Williams

Pick No. 5
Decisions don’t get any simpler at No. 5, where your best options are likely to be Tomlinson and Williams, two players coming off very different campaigns. Williams is fresh off a banner season in which he scored a league-high 20 times and ran for 1,515 yards with a 5.5-yard average. L.T., meanwhile, just set career rushing lows in ’08 and turned 30 this summer, a daunting age for running backs. Although all signs point to Williams being the pick here, I’m going against the grain and choosing Tomlinson, whom I’m willing to bet has one more monster season left in him.
Ideal choice: LaDainian Tomlinson
Other viable option: DeAngelo Williams

Pick No. 6
Based on his ’08 production, Williams should have been off the board by now, but questions surrounding his ability to repeat and the increased involvement of teammate Jonathan Stewart could have him dropping on draft day. Even if he experiences an expected statistical regression this season, he is still a solid value at No. 6. Williams is not the only guy worth considering here — Larry Fitzgerald should begin to enter the conversation at this point — but the Panther is simply too tough to pass up.
Ideal choice: DeAngelo Williams
Other viable options: Larry Fitzgerald, Steven Jackson

Pick No. 7
With the elite RB crop leveling off a bit at this point, now is the time to start bringing wide receivers into the mix. Since Fitzgerald is easily the best at the position, he’d be the guy to look long and hard at here. His ability to pile up both heaps of yardage (1,431 last season) and TDs (12 in ’08) is unmatched among wideouts. A versatile running back with nice upside like Steven Jackson or even a scoring fiend such as Brandon Jacobs also wouldn’t be poor selections, but getting the No. 1 wideout with the seventh pick seems to be a better value.
Ideal choice: Larry Fitzgerald
Other viable options: Steven Jackson, Brandon Jacobs

Pick No. 8
Sorting out the next tier of running backs will be the challenge for the owner with the eighth pick, as one could make a case for a few different players here. Two guys who previously had monster years and are expected to see their roles increase in ’09, Jackson and Frank Gore, probably have the highest ceilings of the backs in this tier, but Jacobs is no slouch, either (1,089 yards, 15 TDs in ’08). The injury risk with S-Jax is always scary, but his dual-threat ability and big-play potential give him the slight edge.
Ideal choice: Steven Jackson
Other viable options: Brandon Jacobs, Frank Gore

Pick No. 9
Once Jackson is gone, you really couldn’t go wrong with either Jacobs or Gore. Although each is unique in his abilities — Jacobs doesn’t get a huge workload but is extremely efficient and scores a bunch, while Gore is an all-around contributor who touches the ball often but doesn’t excel in any singular category — both have flaws that make them shaky as your first selection. Even though he gets hurt basically every year, I lean toward Jacobs because of the big numbers he’s capable of when healthy.
Ideal choice: Brandon Jacobs
Other viable options: Frank Gore, Chris Johnson

Pick No. 10
If you’re picking tenth, it’s likely that most of the hard decisions will have been made for you. Unless you’re in a league with some risk-taking owners who have shaken up the first round, Gore would appear to be the obvious choice here. While his stats have steadily decreased since his breakout 2006, a new run-first system in San Francisco and the lack of a proven backup make him a very enticing fantasy pick. A rising star like Chris Johnson wouldn’t be a bad option, either, but he’s not quite at Gore’s level.
Ideal choice: Frank Gore
Other viable options: Chris Johnson, Brian Westbrook

Pick No. 11
As Round One nears its end, not many players would seem to have more going for them than Johnson, who exploded for 1,488 yards from scrimmage and 10 TDs as a rookie. As he enters his second season, the newly nicknamed “Every Coach’s Dream” is set to take on a larger role in the passing game and could see even more carries than he did a year ago, making his upside virtually limitless. A proven veteran like Brian Westbrook is certainly in the mix, but he has lots of question marks following offseason surgery. Johnson looks like the man here.
Ideal choice: Chris Johnson
Other viable options: Brian Westbrook, Steve Slaton, Clinton Portis

Pick No. 12
The final pick of the opening round is one that could go in a number of directions. Owners scared off by Westbrook’s bad ankle could look at another established producer like Clinton Portis, a second-year star in Steve Slaton or even the top quarterback in fantasy, Drew Brees. Ultimately, it will come down to Westbrook’s progress in returning from his recent operation. If the multitalented Philly back looks to be a full go for Week One — which he reportedly is on track to be — he’s the logical choice at No. 12. But if doubts linger entering the regular season, other solid options certainly exist.
Ideal choice: Brian Westbrook
Other viable options: Steve Slaton, Clinton Portis, Drew Brees

 

Kickoff is coming! Be sure to buy copies of the Pro Football Weekly/Yahoo! Sports 2009 NFL preview magazine, as well as the Pro Football Weekly/Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Football Guide 2009, both of which are now available at bookstores, newsstands and retail outlets where magazines are sold. Or order your copies online at PFWStore.com.

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