It's a common mistake among fans and media to assume that trends in the NFL are one- or two-year phenomena, but it's easy to see that there's usually at least one surprise Super Bowl team every year.

In the past decade, there was maybe one Super Bowl matchup - XXXIX, Patriots over Eagles - where two prohibitive preseason favorites met in the title game.

Last season's unlikely but fascinating coda between the Steelers and Cardinals created great story lines and interesting contrasts (and a darned good game), and I think we might be in for something similar to cap off this coming season.

My choice for the team to surprise and delight? Why not the Saints?

I realize that backing the Saints, armed with Pro Bowl QB Drew Brees, is not exactly riding the mortgage on, say, the Bengals. But the more you compare the Saints and last year's Cardinals, the more similar they appear:

• The Cardinals had never made a Super Bowl before. The Saints still haven't.
• Kurt Warner was the triggerman in the Cardinals' run to near glory. Brees, who challenged the all-time passing mark last season, has the same kind of chops.
• The Cardinals often struggled to run the ball. Ditto the Saints.
• Both defenses are replete with emerging talent, but the Cards hadn't put it all together - until the playoff run. Perhaps the Saints will hit their stride in January, too, even after a forgettable game or two.

When you think about it, the playoffs are as much about teams reinventing themselves as they are about continuing regular-season momentum. The Giants were floundering two years ago before a stunning postseason face-lift. The Colts could not have stopped the IUPUI rushing attack in December 2006 but were world champs in February. The '05 Steelers barely squeezed into the playoffs before winning it all.

And that's why the Saints' daunting schedule doesn't frighten me a bit. They face the Eagles, Giants, Dolphins, Falcons (twice) and Panthers (twice) - all playoff teams a season ago - plus the Patriots, Jets, Redskins and Cowboys, who were all .500 or better last season.

The '08 Cardinals played the same gauntlet of the AFC East and NFC East and were battle-hardened because of it. If the Saints get hammered by the Patriots or Falcons late in the year, they should think back to the Cards' humbling losses to the Vikings (35-14) and Pats (47-7) in Weeks 15 and 16, respectively. It will serve them well.

I think 10-6 can get the Saints into the dance, and as we have seen in recent seasons, that's all you need: an invitation.

Brees will have another marvelous season. That's not the issue; it's the defense first, run game second. If the Saints can hold serve with Will Smith and Charles Grant out the first four games (Detroit and Buffalo are on the slate), they'll be fine. Keep an eye on DT Sedrick Ellis, who could hold up the D-line in the interim. I like the young secondary - Malcolm Jenkins will be very good - and think Gregg Williams will get the most of this group and again rise as a head-coach candidate.

Pierre Thomas could be this year's breakout runner, and I have faith that Reggie Bush finally will put it all together in some form or fashion. Jeremy Shockey? Not ready to go down that road yet.

So, whom will the Saints play in Super Bowl XLIV? I'll go with San Diego. We'll call it the Brees Bowl.

Kickoff is coming! Be sure to buy copies of the Pro Football Weekly/Yahoo! Sports 2009 NFL preview magazine, as well as the Pro Football Weekly/Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Football Guide 2009, both of which are, now available at bookstores, newsstands and retail outlets where magazines are sold. Or order your copies online at PFWStore.com.